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Can’t believe punters would be blinded by Murtagh’s comments, which appear to be part of his Coolmore contractual agreement to keep the publicity vehicle motoring along.
For RVW, this race depends on the nature of the race – a 2008 situation is in his favour, but New Approach was sired by a Derby winner. Different kettle of fish.
Rip Van Winkle (now 4s for the Derby in some places) was also sired by a Derby winner.
Skybet, interestingly enough, now have Murtagh at 5/4 to ride RVW in the Derby. If he does ride the Guineas fourth, then it will not come as any big surprise to me.
Maybe Fame and Glory, as I alluded to already, is the hype horse in all of this?
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Andyod
Coolmore not having a pacemaker in this is as unlikely as them not having a runner, imo, of course.
Ah, so they must be thinking New Approach about RVW.
Makes sense. I should probably review his races again.
Neither Sword of Gold nor Freemantle have a need of a pacemaker so unless he wants to give Levey the riding experience of Tattenham Corner Ballydoyle won’t have a pacemaker in to clutter up the race.
Dont forget David McCabe , Andy. If AOB really wants to put a pacemaker in he can call on this fellow
I have been following Levey since he joined Ballydoyle from Kenya. He is a very exciting prospect and seems to be favored by Aidan this year as his pacemaker but McCabe could also be selected.However since Aidan claims that he runs pacemakers to ensure a truly run race I don’t think he will need one this year.
I have been following Levey since he joined Ballydoyle from Kenya. He is a very exciting prospect and seems to be favored by Aidan this year as his pacemaker but McCabe could also be selected.However since Aidan claims that he runs pacemakers to ensure a truly run race I don’t think he will need one this year.
Absolutely, Levey looked a really exciting prospect at the tail end of last year. AOB gave him some really sweet rides and he duly obliged on a high percentage of them.
One for the future thats for sure
Maybe Fame and Glory, as I alluded to already, is the hype horse in all of this?
Can’t see how Fame And Glory is much of a hype horse when he won a G1 on his second appearance, and has won a G3 and G2 this season.
No one on this Forum who has backed him has said that he is some kind of super horse – we have merely said that we think he will win the Derby.
RVW on the other hand seems to have some kind of aura about him. No matter how often he gets beat, he seems to remain some kind of superior animal.
Zarkava made me laugh yesterday when he referred to him as Rip Van Hypele. What reason is there other than hype that RVW is half the price of Sea The Stars for the Eclipse?
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My feeling are that this Derby is one of the most open for years. I can’t see a shock as there are too many good horse with a chance.
Sea of Stars: Probably the best looking colt in the race and travels and always runs on really well. I think he might get the trip but just ok He doesn’t do things too quickly and could be a sitting duck for a horse who can produce a bit of acceleration at the end of his race. A concern is his other entries are !m and 1m2f which leads me to believe the trainer wouldn’t be running him over 1m4f if it wasn’t the Derby
Fame and Glory: There is no doubting he is a very nice horse but his last piece of form may have made him look better than he actually is with Mourayan running no sort of race. The fact Johnny Murtagh has doubt about which horse he will actually rides seems to back that up.
Rip Van Winkle: There’s a distinct possibilty that both he and Mastercraftsmen were not 100% when they ran in the Guineas. AOB’s yard for me didn’t seem to be firing on all cylinders at the time. Mastercraftsman looked a completely different horse the other day and if Rip Van Winkle shows similar improvemnt I think he’s the one they all have to beat. As I said in a previous post last Thursday there’s an old saying "4th in the Guineas 1st in the Derby" He ran on that day like he will get further and he is such a relaxed horse if he gets the run of the race his speed should come into play. Events since I backed him would seem to indicate he is the yards best hope but nothing is ever certain with AOB runners.
Black Bear Island: I just can’t see him being good enough. His win in the Dante took a real body blow when the third horse was withdrawn from the Derby. Sans F actually looked a better prospect to me than BBI so Noseda withdrawing him doesn’t give me any confidence that BBI is anywhere near good enough to win a Derby. He may have the best chance of staying but that’s about it with him.
Gan Amhras: Jim Bolger made it clear before the Guineas he thought this horse would do well to get a place as 1m was never going to be his trip.
He lacks the toe associated with great horses but if he hits the front 2 to3 furlongs from home it will take some horse to pass him. He’s great value at 9/1 and I can’t see him being out the first 3.Crowded House: I may be shot down in flames for saying this but I doubt if Brian Meehan has been totally truthful about his well being. Amazingly he pulled him out of the Guineas and when he got to the Dante he ran like a horse with no sparkle. They claim he was sick but obviously not sick enough that he showed any signs beforehand we now of. There was just nothing to even hint he might be good enough to win the Derby. Most often if a good horse is a bit below the weather he will still travel reasonably well in a race until the pressure takes it’s toll. He never at anytime looked like he was even threatening to win. He may come to himself later but he looks like a horse who hasn’t trained on to me.
Freemantle. He and BBI were seperated by a head last time. They both can’t be superstars in my book and like BBI I couldn’t even consider backing him.
My selections
1. Rip Van Winkle
2. Gan Amhras
3. Sea the Stars"As I said in a previous post last Thursday there’s an old saying "4th in the Guineas 1st in the Derby""
I’ve heard the saying myself, Fist, but I don’t think there is much statistacal evidence to support it……………….not in recent years, at least.
Colin
Although it is an saying, the only horse which I can recall ( in the last three or four decades) to have finshed fourth in the 2,000 Guineas before going on to win the Derby was Generous, back in 1991.
Hopefully the old saying will have more substance to it this year.
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Fame and Glory: There is no doubting he is a very nice horse but his last piece of form may have made him look better than he actually is with Mourayan running no sort of race.
That’s pretty contentious when Mourayan reproduced to the pound his Ballysax running against Hail Caesar and actually improved on his Ballysax form viz-a-viz Fergus McIver. Clearly, he went backwards in relation to Fame And Glory but why shouldn’t that be put down to improvement on the winner’s part?
There are obvious parallels between the Rip Van Winkle/ Fame And Glory situation and that of Hawk Wing and High Chaparral a few years back. There are the same stamina doubts about Rip Van Winkle as there were about Hawk Wing but there is also a big question mark over Rip Van Winkle’s ability given that he has come up short by some way in the Dewhurst and Guineas. He may well come on a lot for Newmarket but he will need to and the longer trip is far from sure to suit him whereas there’s every reason to think that a Montjeu colt out of a Shirley Heights mare will positively relish the step up from 10f to 12f.
Surely if AOB has so many horses in the race it is irrelevent this year whether a horse will stay the distance, as he can totally dictate the pace of the race to suit.
Some wonderful analysis of the possible outcome of the derby.But first Aidan runs pacemakers to ensure a good fairly run race, not to dictate the pace to allow a horse who does not stay to win the derby. Such an outcome would serve nobody well. Coolmore breed from true champions not from set up outcomes. A falsely run derby would not help a breeding operation.Aidan has made that clear again and again that he wants a true race with the best horse winning.His pacemakers never slow down the race but always set a good pace.Example Galileo and Hawk Wing went for it and asked no quarters. Murtagh on Galileo knew that Hawk Wing had stamina questions and set out to test him to the limit.Galileo has since bred a wonderful Derby winner in New Approach who’s stamina was never in doubt as a result of finding out the truth with Hawk Wing.
I agree with Gus that the Derringstown found out Mourayan. Oxx sent out a pacemaker and Mourayan was in trouble when his pacemaker took over. He could barely catch him whereas Fame and Glory simply glided past everything to win going away.In fact he won so easy that he resented being hit by Seamus.
As for BBI and Freemantle.Yes they finished together. But that was the only time in the race they were together. So that analysis is perhaps flawed BBI swooped like a very good horse who was going forward and Freemantle was tired from pacemaking. If ridden differently Freemantle might have finished differently. I suppose he could act as pacemaker for Golden Sword in the Derby. What a wonderful Derby Aidan is setting up for Oxx and Bolger to work out! May the best horse win and no accidents.I feel that Bolger will be caught for toe and Oxx for stamina and that Fame and Glory will win.
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