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Unlikely of course but he could run in both
Paris this year and National next would be my idea, though I admit to sharing the late Anne, Duchess of Westminster’s reluctance when it comes to running top-class chasers over the big fences
I think it’s high time we twigged about the riches to be had in France. A shocking story in the Post today claiming that Mandarin in ’62 was the last British winner of the GSDP. Personally, I have some doubts that Denman would properly get home over a properly-run 3m5 in (usually very) soft ground, though even then the French chasers shouldn’t bother him.
All that being said, I’d love to see him in the National one day, where he would likely win off 182 IMO (I’ve always believed the National races like a 3½ miler anywhere else) unless something akin to Hedgehunter in his pomp turned up.
That’s sound logic, Friggo.
Denman won’t stay the 3m5f of the French race, yet will probably win the Grand National.
To be fair he was coming to the end of his tether in a heavy-ground Hennessy having been forcefully ridden, whilst he was virtually walking up the hill in a soft-ground Gold Cup under similar tactics. Oh, hang on, no, he wasn’t.
Based on everything we know of him it’s absurd to suggest that a 3m5f race on a flat, undemanding track such as Auteuil will test Denman’s stamina beyond its limit, regardless of ground.
It’s not absurd to suggest it – he has never run over the distance, so any doubts are legit.
I don’t share them, however: I think he’d win pretty much any 3m+ race you put him in.
To be fair he was coming to the end of his tether in a heavy-ground Hennessy having been forcefully ridden, whilst he was virtually walking up the hill in a soft-ground Gold Cup under similar tactics. Oh, hang on, no, he wasn’t.
If that’s what you saw in the Hennessy and Gold Cup, more power to you. Given how Denman travelled through those races he hardly finished full of running, enough to convince me that his stamina has a limit. Whether that limit is reached over 3m5 in bottomless ground is a matter of debate at the moment (and if you’ll read my first post, I’m not even decided myself, merely unconvinced). Your initial point concerned the relative stamina tests of the two races, something I’ll contest in opposition to a tiresome and hypothetical "he won’t stay/he will stay" argument.
I don’t think Denman wouldn’t have too many problems getting home over 3m5f at Auteuil – the fences don’t take any jumping, and the race is rarely run at break-neck, stamina-sapping pace.
In a truly-run race over the trip, I confess I would have some doubts about him staying.
To be fair he was coming to the end of his tether in a heavy-ground Hennessy having been forcefully ridden, whilst he was virtually walking up the hill in a soft-ground Gold Cup under similar tactics. Oh, hang on, no, he wasn’t.
If that’s what you saw in the Hennessy and Gold Cup, more power to you. Given how Denman travelled through those races he hardly finished full of running, enough to convince me that his stamina has a limit. Whether that limit is reached over 3m5 in bottomless ground is a matter of debate at the moment (and if you’ll read my first post, I’m not even decided myself, merely unconvinced). Your initial point concerned the relative stamina tests of the two races, something I’ll contest in opposition to a tiresome and hypothetical "he won’t stay/he will stay" argument.
It would have been pretty remarkable had he been full of running at the end of either race given the manner in which he put them to bed, striking on from a very long way out but, at the same time, you can’t say he was stopping.
I can’t believe that a soft ground race over 3m5f round a flat, figure of eight track like Auteuil takes any more getting than a soft-ground Gold Cup. If you doubt Denman’s stamina you are accepting that horses like Princesse d’Anjou and Mid Dancer are stouter stayers than he, which sounds laughable to me.- Total Posts 17716
Compared to ours, French going descrptions are over-stated at the best of times, and it’s hard to imagine that summer ground in central France could be anything worse than that our flat courses would call soft at the same time of the year.
Even if it were an Irish ‘very soft’, given the course configuration, the likely pace, and Denman’s Hennessy romp in proper soft ground, stamina should be the least of his problems.
He’d be well odds-on already, in my book.I think it’s high time we twigged about the riches to be had in France. A shocking story in the Post today claiming that Mandarin in ’62 was the last British winner of the GSDP. Personally, I have some doubts that Denman would properly get home over a properly-run 3m5 in (usually very) soft ground, though even then the French chasers shouldn’t bother him.
All that being said, I’d love to see him in the National one day, where he would likely win off 182 IMO (I’ve always believed the National races like a 3½ miler anywhere else) unless something akin to Hedgehunter in his pomp turned up.
I quite agree, can’t believe in this day and age just how parochial our trainers still are. There are riches all over Europe, c’mon get over there!!
I think it’s high time we twigged about the riches to be had in France.
To be fair, Friggo, some of us have been banging on (and on and on) about this for years.
To me there are probably three reasons for thinking about the Grand Steeplechase de Paris for Denman. Firstly, assuming he’s ok after his heart problem, he’ll only run twice this season, once in a prep race prior to his target the Gold Cup. So if they can find a race like the Grand Steeplechase de Paris for him, which should allow a long enough time gap for him to get over the exertions in the Gold Cup, giving him the extra run this season.
The second reason is I can’t see him running in the Grand National because it comes too soon after The Gold Cup, Denman will never have an easy race in any top chase, but particularly the Gold Cup, because of the way he races during the race, and he needs a reasonable recovery period between his races. He may at some stage have an entry for the Grand National because of some sort of possible mishap in the Gold Cup or injury. As long as the Gold Cup is his main target any thoughts of the Grand National would be more of a precautionary exercise rather than a main target.
The third reason would be Paul Nicholls has so many possible top class chasers that it’s impossible to keep them apart and by going to the likes of Ireland and France with his horses he’s able to keep owners happy and the horses from having to compete against each other, but still take part in top class chases.
I suppose another reason could well be that Denman’s eight now rising nine and they would like to see him out on the track as much as is safely possible, doing what he does best, before he gets past his prime.
The important thing is as Paul Nicholls said yesterday, is to get him back to his best first and take it from there.
I agree with all of your post, David.C.
Paul Nicholls has made overtures about winning the Irish trainer’s title this year. Assuming that goes according to plan this season, and enough of his owners consent to it, launching a raid on some of France’s biggest prizes next summer and autumn would seem the next step along.
It won’t apply to Denman, but what would be especially fascinating for me is to see how some of his French imports would do sent back around Auteuil, Enghien, Cagnes-sur-Mer, Pau et al after their spells at Ditcheat. The classy 2m chasers would interest me the most, not least because classy 2m chases in France are at an absolute premium (if they exist at all).
Anyone who’s read the write-up on Master Minded in this year’s Chasers and Hurdlers will know that previous connections were very reluctant to sell him on, but conceded it was the best way for him to realise his potential granted the paucity of suitable opportunities at the minimum trip. That being the case, if Master Minded can then go over there and prove unstoppable at 2m4f (or any other distance presumed not to represent his optimum when sold), that may well reflect a lot of credit on horse and trainer.
The German NH trainer’s title could be a giggle as well if he ever went for that – only around 70 races per annum, but they’d include an all-weather steeplechase at Honzrath and four Seejagdrennen, i.e. swimming chases. The latter sort of races are loopy enough for some sour old git to be inspired by them – maybe they offloaded Ouninpohja a bit too quickly!
Jeremy
(graysonscolumn)Adoptive father of two. The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.
It would be great if they went for it.
5800m is probably a little beyond his ideal trip, but Denman ought to be able to outclass them, providing he can adapt to the fences.
He’s a better horse than Mandarin was.
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