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Starting this topic with the hope of trying to be more disciplined with my selections and get out of the bad habit of backing a horse in almost every race.
Keeping it quite simple, will be aiming to back horses at 2/1 and over unless something at a lower price takes my eye. Going to start of using either 2pts, 4pts or 6pts win.
I’m quite and instinctual gambler in a sense that I believe you can study the form for hours and still not find the winner. However I will be taking the formbook into account, just won’t be using it as gospel is what I’m basically saying.
So here goes todays selections:
2pts Win – Four Nations 2:45 Newton Abbot 6/1 Bet365
Won a Maiden nicely before disappointing last time out in Novice company, think he can bounce back from that with a win on his first attempt in handicap company. Trevor Whelan returns to the saddle to take a valuable 5 off, he rode the horse when it won the maiden so is more than capable of steering him to victory today.
4pts Win – Polisky 3:15 Newton Abbot 9/2 Bet365
Polisky chased home none other than Sprinter Sacre over hurldes and was good enough to get place in a Gd2 in that sphere, he has some decent novice chase performances to his name so far and this first time in handicap company could see him get his nose in front, 9/2 is a cracking price!
2pts Win – American Legend 4:15 Newton Abbot 11/2 Stan James
Jonjo’s string are in great form at the minute, can’t have anyone better than AP on board, first time visor fitted, hopefully will result in a big run.
Polisky
was very disappointing never seemed to settle or jump that fluently, similar comment’s go to
Four Nations
jumping which was also a bit sketchy at times, he seemed to stay on when beaten but was still quite some way behind the front trio.
However AP managed to get the well backed
American Legend
up leaving me with a nice
+7
profit after day one.
Today’s Selections:
2pts Win –
Ginzan
4:45 Bath 4/1 Bet365
Ginzan is the only CD winner in the race and drops in Class slightly here, having ran respectably in a few handicaps recently she races today only against her own sex in this fillies handicap. The last time she was seen running in one of these races was when she was successful over this course in a class 4. Top weight is a slight concern but she has the benefit of Ryan While on board claiming 7 which will hopefully be enough to see her pass the post first.
2pts Win –
Volcanic Dust
5:15 Bath 12/1 Bet365
Volcanic Dust time is surely near, no win since August 2011, he was 5th just 5 days ago behind Comptonspirit who has a penalty for that victory. That swing in the weights may well be enough to see a reverse in the form.
2pts Win –
Lilo Lil
2:00 Beverley 4/1 Bet365
Lilo Lil has the most experience in the field having run previously 5 times which I always see as an advantage, prior to last time out she’d finished 2nd 3 times in a row in Maidens. Found the conditions race a bit to much last time, she’s reliable enough and hopefully today she finally gets her nose in front!
4pts Win –
Rocket Ronnie
4:00 Beverley 11/4 Stan James
I said I’d try to avoid going under 4/1, however on this occasion I will be doing so by backing the inform Rocket Ronnie, victorious the last twice the latter race at this track, he now goes in search of the hat trick with the extra furlong helping him overcome the weight rise.
Rocket Ronnie
– 2nd
Ginzan
–
WON!
Lilo Lil
– Unp
Volcanic Dust
– NR
Bit of a mixed bag today, Rocket Ronnie went close and was beaten about half a length in the end, Lilo Lil was dissapointing, Gilzan won my stakes back and Volcanic Dust was a NR. Leaving me
+2
so far today and
+9
overall.
Just one selection tonight:
2pts Win –
Mandy The Nag
8:00 Kempton 15/2 Bet Victor
Cruised home last time at Southwell, Fallon a decent booking.
Hi Danny,
Couple of good winners in the first couple of days…and Rocket Ronnie looked like a winner most of the race.
(Just beware of your maths, slightly overstating your daily profits at the minute)
Monday profit is too high.
Staked = 8pts
Return = 13pts (American Legend 2pts win @ 11-2)
Profit = 5ptsNot the 7pts as noted.
Cheers for slashing my profits guys
You are of course both correct, I was including the stake to, took a few months out but hopefully can now return with a few more winners. I believe the last selection I picked Mandy the Nag lost so along with removing the stake my total profit is
+3!
Todays Selections:
4pts Win –
FootstepsintheRain
2:00 Ascot 13/2 Stan James
Has ran creditably on all four starts so far this season not finishing out the first 2. Only ran twice over 7f both times winning, the last time, last time out at Kempton won rather cosily, handicapper has been generous and I feel could still be on a winnable mark.
2pts Win –
Balding Banker
2:20 Hexham 7/2 Various
Remember seeing this horse a few runs ago running all over a small field including market leader here Rudemiester until he crashed out 3 fences from home, generally runs a sound race and recently switched stables we all know how that can work the oracle!
2pts Win –
DreamsofThearte
4:25 Fontwell 5/1 Stan James
This horse looks a real stayer and Maurice Linehan clearly gets on well with him, still feel he could be ahead of the handicapper after 3 consecutive wins.
3 losers think I should have took more time away, Balding Banker looked all over the winner yet ended up finishing 2nd not finding enough when asked the question.
Profit
2pts Win –
Jersey Royal
2.20 Windsor 8/1 Bet Vic
Most experienced runner in the field, some may argue most exposed however was only one place behind the market leader last time out and wasnt far behind seemed to be staying on to so the extra furlong should help.
6pts Win –
Well Painted
3.20 Windsor 3/1 Betfred
Well Painted has been running at a much higher level than most of these and going on form he should beat these doing handstands. 3/1 is a ludicrous price MUST back for me.
Jersey Royal was a well beaten 5th, however Well Painted just got up winning by a nose! Leaving my Current Profit now at
+11
2pts Win –
Copper Trade
4:50 Brighton 6/1 bet365
Copper Trade has plenty of scope for improvement only having 5 runs thus far, his best effort to date was his 2nd place finish last time out he seemed to be picking up near the end that day, plenty to be positive about and hopefully he goes in.
4pts Win –
Just Isla
5:20 Brighton 5/1 Paddy Power
If Copper Trade does win the price of his last time out conqueror Just Isla in the next will shorten. She won that race a despite hanging left and could easily go in again today. Has a good record at the course win 2 wins out of 3.
6pts Win –
Maria Bella
2:10 Leicester 3/1 Coral
Maria Bella finished a decent 3rd first time out and should come on from that run, despite meeting some trouble she still finished a place ahead of market rival today Amaseena. Godolphin been getting a few winners and man of the moment De Sousa is on board!
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