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Good news only 14 declared so little excuse on the draw front for anything. I liked Marsh Warbler on debut so will take him as best of the rest.
- Total Posts 17716
Im glad o’brien is going to let steinbeck miss this race,over the last 10 yrs or so this race had been a grave yard for 2yrs,with only landeers and htn who both won this race going on to be classic winners,plus the rock and hre who were both unplaced but when to be very good horses.Funny enough all 4 were trained by o’brien.
I don’t believe he’s as good as the dogs are barking and I’m sure AOB will have a lot better tucked away. Very seldom anything come out of Ballydole they don’t want you to know. I was reading something about him being the 2nd winner by Footstepsinthesand the first being Walkingthemoon who does run. Both the mares are by Danehill.
The funny thing was he too was a bit of a talking horse when he was subject to a bit of a gamble and won at Newbury. Again he was supposidly fancied at Pontefract when I lost a few quid on him when he ran out of puff in the final furlong. Then he almost won at Epsom again just got caught on the line.
He’s quite a speedy sort and stable companion of Don’t Tell Mary. With more experience than the rest he could just run into a place.
Looking at the Poll someone appears to have put up Steinbeck even after he was declared a non runner – I know some people on here seem to think O’Brien can achieve anything but in this case I don’t think so!
Still chuckling at our friend TDK in today’s Post pointing out that Marine Boy won easily at Newbury and hasn’t won since as a cause for concern for Canford Cliffs backers. Surely scraping the bottom of the barrel for something original to say? Can you imagine contemplating all the really good horses who won easily on debut and thinking I can’t back that because another horse won easily last year and hasn’t won since? Canford Cliffs may not win tomorrow but I can’t think of a much more ludicrous reason for not backing the horse.
Style over substance. Personally I can’t stand backing wide-margin maiden winners. Orizaba, Marine Boy & Cityscape are the main 3 from last season to come to mind.
Red Jazz
with his course experience represents value and gets my vote. Looks like he acts on the fast ground. Not sure Air Chief Marshall does and may be worth a place lay.
Style over substance. Personally I can’t stand backing wide-margin maiden winners. Orizaba, Marine Boy & Cityscape are the main 3 from last season to come to mind.
I agree entirely with the style over substance argument but it doesn’t apply to Canford Cliffs and the Coventry Stakes. The horses who he beat on debut have shown themselves to be far from useless and there is no real substance in the other runners. The prime candidate in the hype division tomorrow is Main Aim who incidently is shortest with Corals. Then you have both Rose Blossom and Lady Of The Desert in the Queen Mary on Wednesday.
Style over substance. Personally I can’t stand backing wide-margin maiden winners. Orizaba, Marine Boy & Cityscape are the main 3 from last season to come to mind.
I agree entirely with the style over substance argument but it doesn’t apply to Canford Cliffs and the Coventry Stakes. The horses who he beat on debut have shown themselves to be far from useless and there is no real substance in the other runners. The prime candidate in the hype division tomorrow is Main Aim who incidently is shortest with Corals. Then you have both Rose Blossom and Lady Of The Desert in the Queen Mary on Wednesday.
I have to admit that I didn’t look at his form properly. I heard the runner-up was beaten by Fremont but I hadn’t seen what the others behind him had done. However, I still don’t believe in taking around 2/1 for the Coventry and I really don’t understand why people would back a 2/1 shot for the Coventry when 13 of the other 14 runners will return 2/1+ just for 2nd or 3rd.
No Hubris’ form is also very good and again, I hadn’t realised. My bad.
Coventry:
Canford Cliffs has the best chance of winning, impressive at Newbury but the stable has not been scoring at the usual rate recently. That is a worry, particularly with two year olds, as they are more susceptible to viruses (if that’s what it is).
No Hubris won well at York and is from a yard that have done well over the years with two year olds at Royal Ascot. It is though, hard to see why he should be as far ahead as the second Flying Statesman in the betting.
Flying Statesman is available at 40/1, 43/1 at the time of writing on Betfair. Only 2 ¼ lengths behind No Hubris on debut and more green than him. Flying Statesman has won since in workmanlike fashion. Worth a speculative few quid with the stable remaining in god form.
Red Jazz will wait to see if I can beat the general 8/1 about Barry Hills horse. Already got course winning form and bred to do better at this trip. Stable not in the same form as earlier in the year though.
Air Chief Marshal won impressively on heavy going at 7f before unlucky at 5f last time. Might find a few too speedy in these conditions. Only raced on a soft surface.
Marsh warbler is an interesting Mark Johnstone runner. Easy winner of a modest Redcar maiden.
Stable companion of the favourite, Fremont won at Goodwood. Despite looking green. Only getting going for hands and heels in the final 100 yds. Beat Rakaan who’d had a run previously (behind Canford Cliffs). Fremont may make abnormal progress, is a brother of smart but untrustworthy sprinter Asset. Even with a stable concern, looks over-priced currently on Betfair.
Alrasm is a good looking individual, saw him at Newbury, ran green after travelling well. Then beat the track record on firm at Doncaster.
Moran Cra’s small Irish stable is going well at the moment. Won a maiden at Leopardstown by 3 lengths.
Raines Cross was second in the National Stakes for his small trainer, but Winkworth does not seem in great form. Keep an eye on the betting, took plenty out of the bookies on debut, 9/2 from 14/1.
Extension won an ordinary maiden at Goodwood. But the stable is in cracking form and is a lively outsider.
Walkingonthemoon impressed in the paddock as a well grown individual at Newbury. Has progressed since but failed to win. Second in the Woodcote at Epsom.
Rakaan has been beaten by both the Hannon representatives and it’s hard seeing him taking revenge. Stable is in better form than when beaten at Goodwood though.Treadwell won an ordinary maiden despite showing clear signs of greeness, jumped path. Has to find good deal here.
My 100% book is:
Canford Cliffs 11/4, No Hubris 6/1,Red Jazz 6/1
, Air Chief Marshal 10/1, Marsh Warbler 18/1,
Flying Statesman 20/1
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Fremont 20/1
, Alrasm 22/1, Raines Cross 28/1, Moran Cra 28/1, Extension 28/1, Walkingonthemoon 33/1, Rakaan 66/1, Treadwell 80/1.
Have only had one each way bet on Flying Statesman at 40/1 (SJ) so far. Hopefully can get better than the general 8/1 about Red Jazz. Fremont also looks a bit of value on Betfair. Second strings often go off at bigger prices than they should.
Mark
Value Is EverythingHave now taken the 10/1 with Laddies Red Jazz, though I am a little worried about the stable form and drift. Does someone, somewhere know something? As Big Mac would say.
Mark
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Probably means very little. Hubris I would image will have a steady flow of cash coming for him but as this has a history of being more open than it looks they will take chances on lots of them by the end of the day.
I wouldn’t worry too much about stable form and viruses Ginge. You obviously like me never paid much attention to yesterdays results and probably still don’t know..
Richard Hannon sent out 4 runners and they all won yeasterday so the virus must be working……if he could bottle it he’d make fortune
What can you you say about that?!How much will he inevitably be sold to Godolphin for?
Cor this Canford Cliffs can run.
Favourite for next years Guineas not surprising. Reminds me of Three Valleys a few years ago. Hopefully he’ll progress better than that colt did.That was ultra impressive.
Ok, after – timing maybe (
) , but I must confess that I just had to back the fav. after witnessing his effortless win at Newbury on the Beeb just before the off. What a 2 yr old.
This horse is a potential champion. Make no bones about it.
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