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For me one of the interesting things about Royal Ascot will be how he handles the likelyhood of fast ground as the quickest he has run on is good.
His dam won and run well on soft/heavy ground (probably where he gets his ability to handle soft ground from) but she did finish 2nd on her only run on good to firm, whilst his half brother Fantastic Moon won two on good to firm and never ran on anything slower than good ground.
Frankel himself won several times on good to firm and whilst Cracksman takes after dad with his exaggerated stride length he doesn’t appear to have the high knee action that would generally indicate a preference for easier ground.
Looking at the likely runners he will face in the POW there isn’t a stand out rival per say but any repeat of yesterday’s performance will see him as an also ran.
Steve – I have already stated that if SW wins the Derby today, it would be highly unlikely that we will see him in the Arc as I think it would be all roads to Doncaster and then retirement if he wins (an unbeaten Triple Crown winner I think would be too much for even them to risk commercially by running in an Arc – maybe wrong but I don’t believe any horse has won both races in the same season).
Watching the race again after reading JG’s comments he seems to break ok but Frankie then lets him drop back. That’s how I see it anyway….
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Just before the race started you did hear a bang and a lot of movement from Cracksman’s stall which I though was unusual especially for him as he seems the most laid back type of character but I must confess I didn’t think any more of it.
That being the case I do hold my hand up and back track on my comments about Dettori giving him a bad ride and having him too far back during the race – the reason given does give validity to the laboured performance and we should give all the more credit to the horse for still getting the job done under difficult circumstances.
LD73 that’s how I see it with Saxon Warrior too. Retire as a potential legend. Only way I see him as an Arc contender is if he has an unlucky passage today and then connections will most likely change his programme.
Immediately after the Corry Cup I thought they must have gone slow. However, times on the day suggest that is not the case. I do think it was difficult to come from off the pace yesterday and the run of the race suited Salouen, but pace was fairly good. Indeed, it would be impossible for Salouen to do that time in those conditions unless he has improved.
Last season the horse looked to be producing a much improved performance in the Epsom Derby before almost falling… Strongly suggesting he’d be capable of better another day. Disappointed in his next two starts but may be what happened in the Derby took something out of him. He then showed improved form in a couple of races in France. So although has had a fair amount of races was progressive at the end of 2017 and had only one run this term, one on different ground and trip to yesterday… And as Joni rightly points out, it was the very first time he’d run as at this trip on soft ground. Unsurprising then that Salouen improved. Horses often need a certain set of circumstances to produce their very best. Very possible Salouen needs to race prominently at 12f on soft ground at Epsom with SDS in the saddle… or at least two or three of those circumstances which he hasn’t had in combination before.
Without doubt Salouen showed improved form and therefore given the run of the race being against Cracksman, the odds-on favourite wasn’t that far behind his best. Possibly just 7 lbs.
Value Is EverythingLD73, I think much depends on the style of Saxon Warrior’s win, assuming he does win it.
If he holds on all-out, it will be doubtful/madness to head to The Leger. It will be the best way to get him beaten surely? If stamina lets him down today, the Leger is off the table anyway.
I think with Camelot, they had a narrow winner of an awful Guineas and the Derby he won was worse still. He went to Doncaster to go for the triple crown because they probably felt it was his only way into the Hall Of Fame. Camelot went on to run in the Arc with no success but I have always felt Saxon Warrior is the better colt and if he is to go down as a true great, beating older horses in the Arc will do much more than outclassing barges at Doncaster. Most years the St Leger is not really Group 1 class and the Arc is the dogs bollocks of late season contests.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Steve – Whatever way he may win today I think they will still roll the dice in the Leger, as I think it is a case of unfinished business after Camelot.
They may even sacrifice running him in the Irish Derby as they always said winning that race with Camelot (on heavy ground) left its mark and was what ultimately cost him in his Triple Crown bid. I do think SW has a lot more natural talent than Camelot (has a lot more natural speed based on guineas performances) but I wouldn’t be so sure that he is a better/stronger stayer. Time may prove otherwise but I remain to be convinced.
Back to the yesterday’s race itself, I think the marked change in tactics from being held up seemed to suit Salouen to a T. I know connections are looking at the Arc long term but they might want to look into some of the weaker G1 12F races in Europe like France’s Grand Prix St Cloud in July or in Germany for the likes of the Preis von Berlin in August, Preis von Europa & Preis von Baden run in early & mid September.
I just don’t think he is good enough to win a G1 over here as its unlikely that circumstances will ever fall better for him than they did yesterday.
I don’t know why people cannot be allowed their honest opinion on here without someone coming on to say it is harsh on my part. I was sick fed up with it during the jump season with people having a go because I said something they didn’t like about their beloved horse. I am only giving MY opinion.
Oh, Steve.
You are of course “allowed an honest opinion”, but so is every other TRFer allowed an honest opinion. When using what people believe are “harsh words” like “stank”, you can’t complain when someone points that out. ie People are only giving their “honest opinion” when responding to your comments, they are not “having a go”.Value Is EverythingCracksman banged his head coming out of the stalls Gosden reported.
Didn’t help get a good position at the start horse must’ve bin a bit dizzy.Harsh words or not, my point seems valid now.
Only trying to forewarn people about backing horses at silly prices.
Obviously they didn’t want to listen.
C’est La Vie.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I wish I’d stuck to my guns and laid it.
Not sure a smug post is particularly kind to anyone who chose to back him though.
C’est la vie
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Anyway, there is now a reason that I do accept as explaining the poor effort. Frankie has said the horse banged his head on the stalls just before they opened. The trainer reckons the colt was dazed and this caused the slow start and inability to get travelling. Gosden feels that Cracksman probably ran most of the race in a half stunned state.
That makes much more sense to me than blaming the track/jockey etc for what was intrinsically a bad run.
^ Your words Steve.
Was there a reason that you accepted for Cracksman’s poor effort, or not?
Could it be you want to say how you got the horse right, despite backing him ante-post for both King George and Arc. Hope you can still pick up on those races.
If Cracksman wins the King George or Arc will we be getting another “I told you so”?
C’est la vie.
Value Is EverythingJust a statement of fact. I can hardly be smug given the season I have been having anyway, I am the kiss of death this year and I warned people NOT to back Sergei Prokofiev because he could not possibly win because I had put him up at 33/1. If that is not the epitome of self-deprecating honesty, then I don’t know what is?
Far too many times I get told off for what is only my point of view.
People were getting shirty about me criticising Cracksman’s last run, when I was only saying what I thought was the truth.
I have openly admitted that I had backed Cracksman for two races and stated my concern for those bets, again being open and honest about it. I could have taken the stance of over-confidence and said that there was nothing to worry about with Cracksman but I would have had to lied to both myself and readers to do that. Sorry, but I am straight and tell it as I truly feel it to be.
What I was trying to warn about was backing Cracksman at short odds after his Coronation effort. Yet the way it was taken by readers was as a slight against the horse overall. That hardly makes any sense when I have backed the horse myself and given the overwhelming feeling that I was talking rubbish, it’s only fair enough to revisit a thread to make clear that my opinion looked more than warranted in retrospect.
It’s fairly typical to accuse people of being smug but as I said, I am in no position to be smug about anything with my efforts this year and I am not have a go at anyone in particular on this forum, it’s just a general observation that people leave it late to bet too many times and make poor value selections when they get swept into the notion that a horse is a superstar before they have really proved it.
Some people were trying to argue that the horse ran near his best last time, saying that Salouen had truly improved a good bit, saying that Frankie gave him a bad ride, saying that Frankie gave him GOOD ride etc etc. I just felt the horse had run a bad race, end of.
The bang on the head was then reported, which I felt was a more feasible possibility. John Gosden pondered that the horse probably ran in a daze and obviously if that were the case it would be a reasonable excuse. Todays’ run makes that look less likely to have been why he was below par. The main thing in analysing a race is deciding if a horse has run below his best or not. I felt Cracksman had run well below form, if that is better than saying he stank. I don’t afford any horse more reverential prose because some may feel the horse is “Royalty” in their eyes. Same goes for jockeys and trainers. If I feel there is under-performance and bad decision making, I will say so. For me it is more beneficial than taking the view that jockeys, trainers and horses are infallible.
Anyway, you only have to put with me for three more days.
I said to my wife that I would finish posting here after the Royal Meeting. We are both working as fundraisers for Cats Protection now and moving towards fostering homeless Cats and kittens until full time homes can be found for them. The time is not really there for writing here anymore and in any case it will probably be good for the Forum to encourage new blood in the ranks.
I am not as in love with game as I used to be and I think the media coverage is both poor and dishonest, the betting firms are lazy and have zero testicles.
Cracksman is an ideal example of a horse hyped by the media as a Superstar, long before he done enough to prove it. Coming into today’s race Matt Chapman was talking the old Ess Aitch One Tea about the colt and how he was going to smash them all up. They ran a stats reel that went on about a potential 4th Group 1, as if it was somehow comparable to Black Caviar or Winx. Four is not a sequence in my living memory and going on to talk prize money is a classic misleading statistic with many horses who won a lot of money simply by winning a race with a good purse that wasn’t actually a very good race.
There is a general trend of hyping everything as quickly as possible and reading some of the speculation about Cracksman, including comparisons with his sire, had me shaking my head in disbelief. Someone even reckoned he would never be beaten again.
Well, as they say in Glasgow and on Still Game “Get it roond ye”
Just left to Saturday for weary readers and I’ll be off to concentrate on Cats and Kittens.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
My point, Steve is that you yourself have changed your mind so many times about Cracksman.
You now say others/media fell for the hype of one race… And yet if it was “hype” you yourself fell for big time; by backing him ante-post for the King George and Arc. ie On that one hyped race you felt he was value to beat the (then fit) great filly Enable. Loads of us TRFers believe/d Cracksman’s performance in the Champion Stakes absolutely top class, but we did not back the horse for King George and/or Arc. So who was it that fell for (or even contributed to) the hype?
Cracksman then runs below his form in the Corry Cup and you describe it as he “stank”.
But then changed your mind again. ie After describing it as he “stank”, you then come on here and say: “Anyway, there is now a reason that I do accept as explaining the poor effort“. So it’s not just that you thought it’s a “feasable possibility”, it’s a reason that you did accept as explaining the Corry Cup poor effort.
Yes, you came on the Prince Of Wales thread and said about Cracksman “very short for me”. Hope others were indeed warned against backing him at 2/5.
I agree he was very short given the question marks thrown up at Epsom. I personally chose to take him out of it even when 4/6 was still available, by betting without yesterday.But then Cracksman fails to land the odds yesterday and it’s as if you never accepted the reason for the Corry Cup poor effort, as if you never believed/contributed to the so called “hype” yourself and as if you’ve always been right about the horse.
I’ve got great respect for your opinions Steve, you’re a bloody good judge, have been particularly unlucky with ante-post bets this season – feel for you. Form is temporary… Your luck better change today, as we’ve both been on Stradivarius for a very long time. You will be badly missed on TRF – including by me and hope you reconsider.
Value Is Everything
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