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To be fair, I think the handicapper has done pretty well here. About 18 horses have some sort of chance. Incidentally, I see Adrian Massey likes Imoncloudnine, but I have never been able to follow how he arrives at his ratings.
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Ballyfoy
for me; wasn’t given too hard a time when a staying-on 5th over hurdles on his reappearance, goes on the ground, should stay every inch of the trip and has long distance specialist Mattie Batchelor in the saddle.
I’m happy to take the 20/1.
I like the look of Arbor Supreme at an ew price. Has won over extended trips on the soft and if he jumps well can see McLernon sneaking him into the race. The fact Willie Mullins is sending him over is a tip in itself.
I like the look of
Theatre Dance
. He’s won at the course (off a mark of 134) and carries a feather weight tomorrow. It looks as though he may have been difficult to train but he has been campaigned this season as though being lined up for something (one run over hurdles and one run over inadequate trip). The booking of Timmy Murphy is obviously a big plus in a staying chase and the stable is in good form.
At the time of writing he’s 43/1 on Betfair which is too big to ignore.
Good man Tuffers. I was starting to think I was on my own thinking that (doesn’t hurt the odds I suppose). Apart from what you’ve said he’s also got a clean record in the F and PU stakes. Still 33s with PP and paying five places.
I probably am the only one who thinks
Magic Sky
is not without hope. Certainly a long shot. 50/1 is just too tempting though. He probably wont stay. He won the coral.co.uk Handicap Chase on the card in 2009 (last year so to speak) and does all his best work at the end of his races. He probably has too much speed but Milton Harris couldn’t have his horses in much better shape lately.
If he runs at Sandown I would probably be more interested.
Already with Dance Island but still considering a small one on Magic Sky, always under rated but then he rarely wins. 1 in 3+ years. Not without hope….
As
the guy above
said
That’s what my friends call me
lol
That reminds me of a kid called Brown in our regiment, who was always known as Stanley. Apparently, when he was on parade and the sergeant called his name in the roll call, he didn’t answer. So the sergeant kept balling his name. Eventually, he went up to him and bawled, "Is your name Brown? "Yes, Sergeant", he replied, "but my friends call me Stanley…."
He was a natural comedian. I remember hearing him in the NAAFI saying to a German woman working behind the counter, called, Gertrude, after some no doubt twisted interpretation of something she said, "Oh Gertie, du bist dirty."
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Just going through the race now, having an argument about whether Maktu goes missing in big races or not!? what do you think.
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Despite Paul Nicholl’s protestations to the contrary,
Watamu Bay
is probably quite well handicapped for this. He’s certainly no worse off than the same trainer’s Aiteen Thirtythree (OR 148) who handed Voramar Two a very similar beating. Guaranteed laid out as well, as PN won with him twice in 10 days to get his mark for this, even though both he and his (then) jockey believe he needs time between his races.
Will stay all day, the softer the ground the better, his capable claimer reduces his weight to 10.12., and at 10/1 generally, looks a solid e.w. bet in what strikes as a below standard renewal.My key fancies in this one are…
Arbor Supreme
. Just look at some of the races he has won/placed. 3, 5 has got to be the perfect distance and the ground won’t be any kind of worry. In fact i think he’ll love it. Lets keep in mind that this horse was a heavily fancied one for the Grand National last season and i think we can all forgive him for unseating at the Chair?
I’m going to bite my tongue here and back
Ballyfitz
. I know the horse can’t jump for toffee, but nor can the favourite. On this kind of ground the horse’s jumping should improve for it and after the remarks from David England after the National; this ground will be his best friend. I was watching him in that brush hurdle last time and i turned to my dad and said "what’s he doing here?" and despite being off the bridle for most of the journey he still managed to obtain fourth in a classy race. Fifth in this last year too, so i must like this one at 25/1…
A relatively forgotten horse seems to be
Giles Cross
. I’m willing to put a line through his pull up last time behind my boy Midnight Chase because that race was run at a 2 mile pace whereas today will be a totally different matter to say the very very least. Seems to love this ground and will easily stay, remember he did finish 3rd in the Midlands National last season. Sure he was last and a distance behind, but he still got round. And on that bottomless ground at 4 miles 2 is a credible achievement. Very much an E/W prospect…
And of course i need to stay loyal to
Royal Rosa
. With his last run in the Becher and his form over longer distances; this race seems like his type. I just really, really hope he doesn’t leave his attack too late. Making up ground on a soft/heavy surface is a near impossible task.
If i had to back one?
Giles Cross
appeals as the danger… but i can’t resist E/W money on the rest.
Despite Paul Nicholl’s protestations to the contrary,
Watamu Bay
is probably quite well handicapped for this. He’s certainly no worse off than the same trainer’s Aiteen Thirtythree (OR 148) who handed Voramar Two a very similar beating. Guaranteed laid out as well, as PN won with him twice in 10 days to get his mark for this, even though both he and his (then) jockey believe he needs time between his races.
Will stay all day, the softer the ground the better, his capable claimer reduces his weight to 10.12., and at 10/1 generally, looks a solid e.w. bet in what strikes as a below standard renewal.This is my selection too – I like the profile, more to come I think from Watuma Bay and because its Nicholls, the experience issue is not as serious in my view.
I’va backed Arbor Supreme e/w without Synchronised. As others have said the ground won’t be a worry and I’m sure McLernon will hold him up and let him creep into the race. Could be just whats needed in what will be stamina sapping conditions.
Bloody hell second again. Chuffed to bits to have singled out Giles Cross, i knew he’d run a big one and it looked like he was winning 3 to jump.
Ballyfitz jumped really well for the most part. Could very well win the National if the ground was right.
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well done on Giles Cross I was keen on his table compinion but no complaints as my main fancy Imoncloudnine has run a cracker.
After an eye-catching effort over timber on his last visit to a racecourse, it’s no surprise to see that support for
Synchronised
has been gathering strong momentum.
A course win over Giles Cross in December 2009 was followed three months later with a gruelling success in the Midlands National over four miles-two.
There’s a lot to like about the profile of the horse. Effectively a 7YO on the original date for this contest, this race has been dominated in recent years by younger horses, with five of the last six renewals going the way of either a 6YO or 7YO. In fact, Bindaree was the last 9YO to win the contest back in 2003.
The one negative about the Jonjo O’Neill-trained representative is his weight. Due to carry 11st6lb, no horse has carried that burden to success since Master Oats in 1994, who would progress to Cheltenham Gold Cup glory later that season. Only four horse have carried more than 11st to success in the last 20 years, all of them boasting a touch of class – Carvill’s Hill, Master Oats, Halcon Genelardais and Notre Pere.
I’m not convinced Synchronised has the ability to defy such a burden, but it would be a surprise if he wasn’t on the premises during the latter stages of the contest.
Giles Cross
is an interesting contender. He met both Synchronised and Maktu at this venue just over a year ago and finished a respectable second behind the J P McManus horse, with Maktu 8L back in third. He was in receipt of 1lb from Synchronised that day and went down by just over 4L. He is set to be 15lb better off with that rival and 4lb with Maktu, respectively, on Saturday.
He was a well beaten third in the Midlands National behind Synchronised, but that does not accurately reflect the winners superiority. Giles Cross failed to stay the distance that day, after being prominent for much of the race, and will be much happier over this trip.
Two of his three victories have come on heavy ground and his form figures at Chepstow read 12F1. He is a sound jumper, resolute galloper and represents solid each way value at a best priced 25-1.
You get some right. You get some wrong.
Took the 25s about Giles Cross on Thursday morning at 5:39am (don’t ask!!). Delighted with the effort – thought he stole it turning into the straight.
What a lovely attitude and a sublime head carriage.
I knew Synchronised would be thereabouts – quite obvious, really – but I could not see him carrying that weight to victory. It wasn’t a vintage renewal and he’s no Carvill’s Hill, but that a great effort giving course specialist Giles Cross 18lb – the runner-up had everything in his favour.
AP believes Synchronised lacks the scope to be a National horse and I agree. Where does he go from here? A step up in class, maybe? He certainly deserves it.
Maktu pulled too hard early on and did well to finish fifth. Watamu Bay (sixth) is one I would still keep an eye on. He will be better suited by a right-handed track and has a big race in him.
Synchronised did appeal to me as a National horse, but he just… can’t jump. On bottomless ground he deserves his chances as he’ll have plenty of time to check out the fences before getting to them and thus not jump too bad (enter Red Marauder). I’d throw him in the Blue Square or maybe the Eider?
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