- This topic has 51 replies, 25 voices, and was last updated 13 years, 9 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Much will depend on which of the top rated horses end up running in this. I’d really want to be opposing likes of Burton Port, Neptune Collonges, Hey Big Spender, Dream Alliance, Madison Du Berlais, & if Burton Port doesn’t run, I think I’d want to be opposing Silver by Nature and Synchronised as well.
While Burton Port has some high class placed form, he seems a very unrealistic favourite to me. It’s not good having to carry a big weight in a race like this, which is nearly always is an absolute slog. I think it may be doubtful he’ll even run.
Of those higher weighted horses, imo, Silver by Nature would probably be best suited to the race, but I still can’t help feeling the weight would still end up telling on him, especially if he ended up with top weight.
I do like Any Currency, he’s had two races so far this year & looks to have become fitter from one to the other. He could just be spot on for this, has a fair handicap mark of OR133, & should appreciate the test this race brings. He needs Burton Port to come out really.
There’s a few entered with very limited chase experience, but lots of potential. Watamu Bay has won a couple of novice chases, but a mark of OR147 looks high enough, & he could end up with a big weight, which would turn me off him.
Master Overseer, in contrast, is only rated OR122. He has experience of these long-distance slogs, having won the Sussex National at Plumpton. This is a big step up in class though, & he’s not been raced this season yet. There’s a good chance he will have to run from out of the handicap as well. I do like him, but the weights & fto are turning me off him.
Another hunch more than anything else, is that Summary Justice could run well. Again, he’s young, & very inexperienced, but he could be well handicapped off OR135. The likely going & trip should be OK for him, & he comes from a stable who can prep one for a race like this.
If I could be sure he was fit, and he could race on his preferred better going, I’d fancy Poker de Sivola off OR138, but in truth, I can’t really see either happening. On the likely ground, Galant Nuit is probably the percentage call of the F.Murphy horses, but again he hasn’t raced for a long time.
Of the other UK entries, I was also quite interested by Matku, he’s from a stable which has won this race before, & who run quite a few horses at Chepstow. Whether his stamina will last out, I’m not sure.
I am sure there are a few Irish horses lurking with very good chances, but I’m no expert here. There are entries from G.Elliot, N.Meade, W.Mullins, A.Martin, J.Culloty etc. The only one that did catch my eye was Becauseicouldntsee, that’s obviously being prepped for something.
Think my UK short-list at the moment would be Any Currency, & maybe Summary Justice as a dark horse.
Any other ideas ?
Been waiting for the return of
Companero
for a very long time and i reckon if he runs; will be the real dark horse. Custom made for this kind of race.
Obviously have a soft spot for
Knowhere
who, after his third at Cheltenham leaves me thinking this kind of trip will suit him. He was running on superbly towards the end.
Notre Pere
naturally getting my support, great to see him back on the National trail instead of these grade ones.
Chuffed to see
Hello Bud
get an entry and i hope he runs. Becher winners have a decent record in this race and i believe he’ll relish the challenge if on correct ground.
Forest Pennant
seems like an unlikely runner unfortunately which is a shame as i think he would have ran a much better race here than he did in the Badge Ales. This sort of race will show whether or not i should trust him in the National, which i’ve had him pegged for, for a while
And for now that is my… not so short list
Peter H,
Got to agree with you regarding Notre Pere, he ran terribly last season, however his last two runs were very encouraging, got beaten by a decent horse at Thurles, and then was unlucky as he got completely stopped at Aintree, yet finished 5th off top weight. He won this off a 3lb higher mark in 2008.
JohnJ
Peter h and John J are bang on with this one! If ever Ladbrokes were doing an Ante-Post NRNB offer i would suggest lumping on
Notre Pere
for the Welsh National! Connections have dipped there toes in with the big boys and you cant blame them for trying but this fellow is actually a Welsh National horse,not a Grand National horse but a beast made for the stamina sapping test Chepstow offers,he reminds me a bit of Carvills hill,a better jumper but not the Bugatti Veyron engine old Carv had! I see Notre Pere has an entry in the Lexus again but thats the point i was making earlier so i hope connections realise now that off his current mark of 149,he"s thrown in! Just remember this fellow ran off a mark of 167 against Kauto star in the Betfair Chase once at 4/1! Time to be bullish again,if this fellow runs he wins! 23"s on the machine though concerns me as far as an Ante-Post bet goes though! Fortune favours the brave eh!
at the prices i like because i couldntsee – came 2nd in the 4miler at cheltenham in 2010 and a horse at a bigger price who i think is ready made for what will undoubtably be a sapping test of stamina must be hello bud – already run well in scottish equivalent and if im reading betting correct is available at about 40’s .
palypso de creek is entered but i cannot recall so will have to look back to see what charlie longsden says about what ground this one like however its always been well thought of and probably just needs time .
i love chepstow nh its my nearest course and i can recall walking the last 2 miles to the course in freezing weather just like now to see the great burrough hill lad win -1984 i think – happy days !
I would like to know what the chances are of
Chicago Grey
running in this.
Looked to have the beating of a couple of decent sorts at Cheltenham last time before falling two out.
Also holds a few other entries over the Christmas period.
My e/w pick for this, one of my horses to follow…I’moncloudnine.
Yeah, ok, he has to get in first, but he’s tough, got bags of stamina and – usually – jumps like a dream. He’s the sort of horse that’ll win a big name handicap one of these days, mark my words.
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
King, I agree with your comments about Notre Pere. I couldn’t ever see him winning the National as he just isn’t nimble/athletic enough for the task. What I mean is he will find it difficult keeping out of trouble particularly as he hasn’t the pace to race up with the leaders.
Tailor made for the Welsh, however, the class horse in the race is Bluesea Cracker, off 140 she has to go very close.
He won’t have my money on the day, but Synchronized was running on amazingly yesterday over that 3 mile hurdle. It was evident by AP’s big grin at the end that he was very happy with him. He should have a decent chance, but i’m not too sure horses being held up is such a great idea over races like the Welsh National when the ground is almost guaranteed to be soft-heavy. It’s damn near impossible to make any ground on that sort of going towards the end of a 3 and a half mile chase.
Whoever gets the ride on Knowhere needs to try to keep him prominent. His run at Cheltenham 2 runs ago was so promising, i’m looking to ignore his latest run.
Twisters also needs to put the blinkers back on him. He really seemed to improve with them and i’d much prefer his chances if he wore them at Chepstow.I enjoyed the thorough analysis of this race put across and i am fully in the Master Overseer camp, but do not think it will get a run.
I have not been through all the runners but would be interested if One cool Cookie was entered it was finishing better than anything at Aintree.Having pulled up sharply at Cheltenham on Saturday, Galant Nuit has been checked over by our vets. Whilst nothing serious, he does have soreness in a heel & as that means missing a few weeks work, he is out of the Welsh National. We will see what happens but most likely scenario is that he heads to Newcastle for the Eider chase, to Cheltenham for the Kim Muir (3rd last year) or to Uttoxeter for the Midlands National.
- Total Posts 17716
The Welsh National was a great race in the 80’s and 90’s but it’s a bigger lottery than the real thing these days.
I hate Chepstow when it’s wet it takes so much out of horses to get round let alone win this marathon.
Jonjo’s jumps out at you but until I see what runs I couldn’t back him. He could end up with another stone on his back and that could make it very tough for him.
If the top one comes out that would also put Notre Pere up near the top of the handicap plus he has completely lost his way with one shockingly bad run after another. I thought he showed signs he was on his way back when 2nd in Ireland but he was beaten over 20 lengths at Aintree without ever looking like he could win. He’s got no fire in his belly and one to steer well clear off IMO
Hello Bud is a lovely horse but he might miss this anyway as they think he’s got every chance of winning the national proper. A another gruelling race in between his last race and the National may not be on their agenda.
Exmore Ranger of Vic Dartnells is going the right way and there’s a race waiting for him but again what weight will he end up carrying on the day?
Had a few quid on him at silly prices but until I know what will actually run it’s like shooting at the moon and hoping you’ll hit a cloud.
If the top one comes out that would also put Notre Pere up near the top of the handicap plus he has completely lost his way with one shockingly bad run after another. I thought he showed signs he was on his way back when 2nd in Ireland but he was beaten over 20 lengths at Aintree without ever looking like he could win. He’s got no fire in his belly and one to steer well clear off IMO
He was tracking the leaders for the first half of the race, despite getting bumped into nastily at the fourth and only lost his place when being stopped literally, in his tracks by fallers in front of him. Even after having this luckless race he still managed to stay on from a mile behind to take 5th. He looked like the winner until Bechers. Write him off? With that weight? Well whatever helps you sleep.
Hopefully you’ve saved some people a few quid by keeping them updated on Galant Nuit, good luck for rest of season.
As for my fancy, I’ve put a few quid on Ballyfitz @36’s. Trainer always seems keen to win this race, and I think conditions could suit, given jockeys thoughts after Aintree this year. I know his jumping can be a bit suspect, but I don’t think he was totally disgraced in the race last year.
I know there’s more obvious ones, but hoping for a run for my money anyway!
Clearly, I’m the only one who fancies it, out to 44’s then 48’s so had some more on.
One of us has got to win something on this horse eventually. I missed him when he was placed at good odds a while ago. My current bogey horse [well, one of them!].
Nobody fancy Dance Island?
Been looking at the pedigree – lots of 4 mile plus stamina evident, Brush Aside on dam side for starters.
Beat Dream Alliance at Chepstow last year – Ok it was a hurdle race. Recent defeat to King Fontaine who is now unbeaten four straight reads well.
Notre Pere would also seem an each way prospect – I feel an exacta bet may be on.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.