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Having look through those old fields , the win to runs in form line for Dickenson horses , just so good . Shame he quit jumps game so quick , a genius levels above the top guys now days bar maybe Mullins .
Nicky Henderson latest…
“I’m very pleased to report that all is well with Constitution Hill and he is now 100 per cent sound, which is obviously great news.
I have seen and read many of the comments suggesting he isn’t as good as he was and that he has to prove himself, which I cannot agree with.
I don’t dispute other people might like to see proof, but he doesn’t need to prove anything to us; he is still the horse he always has been.”Might be the same horse at home but until we see him on the track doing what he did in the past it is a legitimate question to be asked of him.
One would have to wonder just how fit he will be for Kempton (assuming he makes it) as he clearly hadn’t done a huge amount of work (given his issues from last season) prior to Newbury where (before the fallout happened) he clearly looked on the tubby side and badly in need of some strong regular work.
Now he has obviously missed further proper work since then and you wouldn’t have thought Hendo will be training him very hard between now and Kempton so if Lossiemouth does come over she is not only going to have a massive general fitness advantage but she will also be match fit – you would expect that he will likely have to make his own running as well at Kempton and that isn’t likely to be a full out gallop and as we saw in the Hatton’s Grace a slowly run tactical race is tailor made for the speed Lossiemouth clearly has in spades.
If he can beat her with all that going against him (along with the 7lb allowance she gets) then he will for sure be back to the CH of old and he will likely be odds on for Cheltenham afterwards and that will see Sir Geno going back down the chasing route.
It’s unlikely he’ll return at his best , look how long it took for Sprintre to come back , does anyone really think he can give her 7lbs , in my eyes she’s the best horse he’ll run against
I don’t think he will be at his best first time out for sure as he has a bigger target in March but his issues weren’t as serious as Sprinter’s were to come back from, so I think there is a decent chance that he could recapture a significant level of his previous form (mid to high 160s isn’t out of the question yet). But will that even be enough to win a second Champion Hurdle though?
You could potentially argue that Lossiemouth (with her 7lbs mares allowance) doesn’t need to improve that much on her 160 Irish rating to ensure that State Man has to better his own highest rating of 169 and that CH would then have to run near (or better than) his 175 best.
Lossiemouth is clearly the one most open to more improvement of the three (who knows what her ceiling will be) but if she could approach or even better her owner’s last Champion Hurdle winning mare Annie Power’s rating of 166 then the other two have a major problem on their hands.
If Constitution Hill is anywhere near his best then it’ll be curtains for Lossiemouth. He isn’t even 8 years old yet … so there’s still room for improvement IMO.
A lot appear to be forgetting just how good Constitution Hill is.
Yes, he’s had an unlucky 12 months but he’s had no major setbacks like Sprinter Sacre or Denman.
At his best, he’s the most impressive hurdler I’ve ever seen. Giving 20 odd length beatings to Jonbon and Epatante and beating State Man 9L at a half canter.
He’s also the current Champion Hurdle track record holder.He is going to pummel Lossiemouth and whoever else wants a piece. I for one, am going to absolutely love it.
Fill your boots at 4s while you can.
Agree GM23 hes a good one but horses go soft , hes had plenty time off , when the pressure goes on iam not convinced the engine will start to blow .
I hope iam totally wrong , i want to see him back to best .Let’s put it another way , have we seen the best of Lossiemouth , unlikely , have we seen the best of CH , more than likely yes, it’s not just one issue with him , the price he is is because of this , Lossiemouth is the safe and realistic choice … I think she’s special , fair to say Mullins good horses have prob needed a run … if she was the same then that was some performance
I’d agree with all of that HDLG
Only stumbling block is if Mullins juggles the squad to try and win more races instead of a stronger hand in one race.
Annie Power and Quevega spring to mind.
Even the year Annie Power won the Champion Hurdle she was on standby.
State Man does have a question mark hanging over him now so that helpsCharles Darwin to conquer the World
I don’t believe State Man has much of a question mark against him. I thought he ran OK last week. He came there to win the race but seemed to “blow up”. I think he will put the record straight at Leopardstown over Christmas.
No one is questioning Constitution Hill’s ability. The thread would not have reached 97 pages about one horse unless he was something special.
If he could come back to his best, he is clearly a great price for the Champion Hurdle. All those who are doubtful are asking is “Can he come back to his best?” He has not raced for a year. Even though he has not had injuries he has had issues. Horses are not given breathing operations for the sake of it.
His best performance in the Supreme is almost three years ago now. It is not unreasonable to ask if he can ever get back to that level. I hope he does but I am sceptical for the moment.
If State Man is as good as last year does Mullins run both?
I’m not convincedThis man pulled Vautour out of the Gold Cup to run in the Ryanair
He has no problem in pulling Ricci’s pants downCharles Darwin to conquer the World
Judging Lossiemouth on beating Teahupoo easily last time out could be very misleading. Slowly run race at 2 1/2m was always going to be BOTH in her favour and against the stayer, Teahupoo. Getting 7 lbs from both second and third too. When in receipt of 7 lbs, beating the third Beacon Edge by a total of 9 1/4 lengths is NOT usually Champion Hurdle winning form. Yes, she could improve more, but – as it stands – the form she has shown so far is nowhere near what Constitution Hill showed in both Supreme Hurdle and 2023 Champion Hurdle.
In all probability Constitution Hill will not need to run to his best to win it again. The way Sir Gino has lengthened on betfair and Constitution Hill has shortened also suggests connections are far more confident of getting CH there (and Sir Gino’s non-participation). It’s really a matter of will he be able to run to the level needed. tbh imo “Probably” not. However, does he have a better than 20% (fair 4/1) chance of doing so. imo Probably yes.
Get on Bet365’s 4/1 if you can.
Value Is EverythingAssuming they both come through their races without any upset, I think Willie runs both simply because its two different owners and I think this has been the plan for Lossiemouth since last year’s Festival when they went the Mares route due to wanting to give her another year to strengthen up before tackling open company.
That being said, if CH were to spank her fair and square at Kempton then those plans will probably go right out the window and she would then likely be re-routed back to the Mares race again. I just don’t really see that happening though as I think CH will really be in need of his first run back (given it has not been an ideal prep to get him there) and he will not be taking on a rival where he can afford to be way short of his best and still get away with it.
Whatever happens with the horse one camp or the other will say I told you so. If you fancy c hill to come back and win the c hurdle then back it accordingly the same as if you don’t. History would suggest it will be some training performance to win it so I think it’s less likely to happen.
Time will tell of course as always.I don’t “fancy C Hill to come back and win the C Hurdle”, Mickey. But have still backed him to do it.
Or to put it another way, imo His chance of coming back is far smaller than his chance of not coming back. It’s just that @ 4/1 Bet365 have imo underestimated his chance of coming back.Value Is Everything
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