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Twiston Davies is a bit of an enigma as a trainer. He has a poor strike rate compared to other leading trainers and hasn’t perhaps had the ammunition of Nicholls and Henderson but can obviously produce a horse ready for a big run when required.
I think the Imp might struggle. His record fresh is such that you’d have to have doubts and I don’t think the flat track will suit. That said he is clearly the best horse in the race by some way so I wouldn’t be keen to lay him either. No play race for me.
Sean – no problem displaying your blog address. We have a section in the lounge where we display blog addresses for forum members – if you pm me yours I can add it to that. Alternatively add it as your signature on here.
Hey Cormack, thanks for that much appreciated.
Agree re IC’s freshness the jury is certainly out on that one and he certainly loves Cheltenham but I do think they’d be mad not to have a pop at a big juicy prize like this. If NTD is right about the freshness angle he’ll take an awful lot of stopping."Comeuppance" was used in reply to the suggestion that the horse only had to turn up to win. Maybe NTD was only joking, but that is hard to judge in print…
BTW – have nothing against NTD or the horse, just think it strange they are running him.
I certainly don’t buy the argument that because NTD was proved right re the horse’s stamina that we shouldn’t take the concerns regarding the horse being best fresh seriously. While no fan of one-dimensional trend stats, IC’s record with over/under 50 days break posted earlier in this thread is fairly compelling. I also doubt that the horse will be seen to best effect around a tight track.
All of this isn’t to say he can’t win, but I think he is a dreadful bet at his current price (odds-on as we speak)
Don’t think IC’s physique is ideal for Aintree either, a too-big (there) long-striding galloping stayer
Likeliest winner of course but not at short of evens. Add the ‘goes only fresh’ conundrum and I’d want 2/1, though I wouldn’t lay him at that price
Carruthers looks too big at ~16/1. Still unexposed IMO, is a smaller more nippy beast than IC, and has won round Fakenham, Warwick and Bangor i.e LH sharp to sharpish
As for NTD, he has neither a confident nor cocky persona. As Moehat has alluded to he was for years inward looking, seemingly troubled and awkward in public. His rebirth is very much cause for celebration and he’s now more or less just a ‘regular guy’
Hi TDK, thanks for clarification. It’s whoever has been ‘presumptious’ in their comments that is due a comeuppance, not the horse obviously.
I agree re the freshness question but the freshness and stamina questions are arguably related I think in that the races which suggest he is best fresh are the same races that made many of us think he didn’t stay. I certainly thought he didn’t stay. I was wrong and am therefore mindful that the probability we’re wrong re the freshness issue is increased. As ever, we’ll have to wait and see. I’m not at all surprised that the trainer wants to go for the race though. It’s a very nice pot given the opposition it would take a very compelling reason not to go I’d have thought.
For those that are interested, I’m sticking up now the feature I’ve written on the man himself.Anyway – "comeuppance" need not be negative, Sean!
Noun 1. comeuppance – an outcome (good or bad) that is well deserved
Is there a chance that if his previous capitulations haven’t been stamina related as he’s shown this season, that strengthens the argument that he might need to be seen to best effect off a 2-month break?
Agreed DJ – the King George run was particularly woeful and he was beaten before even making a right handed turn…
The irony – what price would IC be tomorrow if he hadnt run in the Gold Cup? I reckon around 2-1, yet he would hold a far better chance!
Those are very fair points and make it difficult to agree the right price for the horse tomorrow. His King George race was over before it began and that he’s able to put in efforts like that is always a worry and would have been a worry too before the Gold Cup.
As a layer the first question is what price is he to run his race I suppose? If he were very likely to run to his best he’s relatively easy to price but those blots on his copy book make it difficult to assess what the real chance of him reproducing his best is. I don’t suppose I’d be rushing to back him at odds on but he’d need to be very short before I’d want to lay him.
As a trainer or owner though I do think it’s a much easier decision. I don’t see much of a downside to running and there is around 85,000 upsides for going.Have to agree with Mr Boyce here!! At odds on I don’t want to be a bettor but it would have to be pretty short to want to lay it!!
And this is from someone who DID lay it at Cheltenham!!
There is a case to be made regarding the fresh theory but if NTD says he has reasons for the bad runs then who am I to argue!!The way ‘comeuppance’ was used – Can read like you want him to fall or something worse.
He goes down in history as a Gold Cup winner – your bets if you weren’t on him (hence the dislike) go down the pan – get over it!
Also don’t over complicate things chaps – what is his record in the King George?
It’s a bit different to that at Chelts – horses for courses!
Once you miss a boat don’t try to get back on…
The way ‘comeuppance’ was used – Can read like you want him to fall or something worse.
Don’t be ridiculous…
NTD cannot possibly come accross as cockily as PN did before the Gold Cup. According to PN Kauto Star was bombproof and flawless, alot of bigging up of his own horses led to a somewhat fruitless Cheltenham for the Champion. Let the horses do the talking!
I personally would not have run the horse, doesn’t have anything to prove, keep him fresh for next season.
Brought abruptly back down to Earth…with a crust-shattering wallop.
What A Friend will return to Dicheat and say "That was for you, boys."
Poor poor judgement from Twisty running Imperial Commander today.
Glad the horse is OK.
Poor poor judgement from Twisty running Imperial Commander today.
Glad the horse is OK.
There was every chance of Imperial Commander failing to fire today, but he also had a fairly strong chance of winning £85k. NTD was wrong to run Khyber Kim in the Boylesports International according to most good judges. IMO, if it doesn’t ruin his chances for next year then there’s no harm in trying and being proved wrong. This "nothing to prove" malarkey isn’t for me. Run the buggers I say!
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