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Would be a ridiculous decision to send him for The Gold Cup.
Then again, I’m biased as I have a score ew at 16s for the RSA!
There would be a host of horses queuing up behind him in the Gold Cup, doubt he would resist several. A no brainer, has to be the RSA.
There is nothing contrived about it. It is simply my opinion.
Houblon Des Obeaux was a 50/1 shot in the Hennessey, which told its own story. As I have already said, it rode more like a Grand National trial than a Gold Cup one. The placed horses have been contesting Welsh Nationals and more than half the field were pulled up on the day.
You mention Houblon Des Obeaux’s improved form this term but I’m not seeing where you are getting that from. He went up four pounds for running behind Many Clouds, but as I have already said, more than half the field were pulled up that day, he then got raised one pound for being second to The Young Master. He has now gone down a pound for being second to Coneygree, leaving him 4lbs higher than when he started, so it’s hardly a meteoric rise through the ranks and with Many Clouds having gone up 10 lbs for his Hennessey win and Coneygree having gone up 13lbs for his win on Saturday, there is always the possibility that Houblon Des Obeaux has piggy-backed his way to his rating
My suggestion that your view was contrived was based upon the fact you did not support your comments about Houblon Des Obeaux and used selective quotations about Unioniste to support your theory, implying the plan to go to Aintree was only hatched following his Newbury run which is not the case.
Yes, HDO has “only” gone up 4lbs, but that was in defeat, all three behind potentially top class horses. Do you really think a horse that has finished 2nd in all three starts this term deserves to be raised more than 4lbs? Many Clouds has franked the form whilst The Young Master and Coneygree are yet to be tested again.
Nobody is trying to make the point that HBO is a superstar, however it is fact that he has improved this term, has shown the sort of consistency he displayed during his novice campaign, and the three horses he has chased home all appear to have the potential to improve some way beyond their current marks.
The main thrust of your argument is that Coneygree has only beaten slow horses, however slow horses also have stamina in abundance so he needed to ensure the fractions were spot on so as not to let the stamina of his rivals beat him. As I have said before none of us know how much was left in the locker and whether Dickie could have gone a stride or two quicker. For all we know Dickie could have kicked him in the belly set up an unassailable lead and won by 30 lengths. I would also contend that if Coneygree was trained by Mullins or Nicholls he would be a lot shorter than his current odds.
There is nothing contrived about it. It is simply my opinion.
Houblon Des Obeaux was a 50/1 shot in the Hennessey, which told its own story. As I have already said, it rode more like a Grand National trial than a Gold Cup one. The placed horses have been contesting Welsh Nationals and more than half the field were pulled up on the day.
You mention Houblon Des Obeaux’s improved form this term but I’m not seeing where you are getting that from. He went up four pounds for running behind Many Clouds, but as I have already said, more than half the field were pulled up that day, he then got raised one pound for being second to The Young Master. He has now gone down a pound for being second to Coneygree, leaving him 4lbs higher than when he started, so it’s hardly a meteoric rise through the ranks and with Many Clouds having gone up 10 lbs for his Hennessey win and Coneygree having gone up 13lbs for his win on Saturday, there is always the possibility that Houblon Des Obeaux has piggy-backed his way to his rating
My suggestion that your view was contrived was based upon the fact you did not support your comments about Houblon Des Obeaux and used selective quotations about Unioniste to support your theory, implying the plan to go to Aintree was only hatched following his Newbury run which is not the case.
Yes, HDO has “only” gone up 4lbs, but that was in defeat, all three behind potentially top class horses. Do you really think a horse that has finished 2nd in all three starts this term deserves to be raised more than 4lbs? Many Clouds has franked the form whilst The Young Master and Coneygree are yet to be tested again.
Nobody is trying to make the point that HBO is a superstar, however it is fact that he has improved this term, has shown the sort of consistency he displayed during his novice campaign, and the three horses he has chased home all appear to have the potential to improve some way beyond their current marks.
The main thrust of your argument is that Coneygree has only beaten slow horses, however slow horses also have stamina in abundance so he needed to ensure the fractions were spot on so as not to let the stamina of his rivals beat him. As I have said before none of us know how much was left in the locker and whether Dickie could have gone a stride or two quicker. For all we know Dickie could have kicked him in the belly set up an unassailable lead and won by 30 lengths. I would also contend that if Coneygree was trained by Mullins or Nicholls he would be a lot shorter than his current odds.
You are spot on about Coneygree being shorter if trained by one of the big names. I would hate to think what odds he would be if Willie Mullins trained him and Ruby had compared him to one of the great ones he has ridden.
Of course the horse has immense potential but, unless the plan was always to go for The Gold Cup, I feel that they are getting a bit taken up by the hype in eschewing the novice route.
I take the point that the horse is eight but he’s going to be facing battle hardened opponents if he takes the Gold Cup path and there is surely time for that next year, with, hopefully an RSA in the bag. I have no vested interest in where he goes, I have not backed him for anything.
As for Coneygree’s form it’s hard to say how good it will prove. His first win of the year was comfortable from Dell Arca by a length and a half but that horse reverted to hurdling and took two serious pastings before being beaten favourite twice after that. Saphir Du Rheu fell when beaten favourite behind Coneygree, leaving him to romp home by miles on that horse’s second race of the season. Saphir Du Rheu has also reverted to hurdling and the third horse that day, Virak, got beat at 1/2 next time up, although I have already said that the distance he finished behind Coneygree more or less negates that, although it would have been nice to see him win to boost the form.
There are reasons to be excited by Coneygree but also reasons to be cautious about him, particularly in a Gold Cup where a few contenders have been tipped to eclipse last year’s winner and move to the top, while Silviniaco Conti will surely be a tough nut to crack if the ground is softer than last year.
I’ll just have to agree to disagree regarding Houblon Des Obeaux and the strength of his form as a gauge to The Gold Cup.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
After Coneygree won the Kauto Star (nee Feltham) Chase, Nico de Boinville got off and said the horse felt as good as anything he had sat on at Henderson’s – perhaps that is a little worrying for supporters of Sprinter Sacre as he rides him in his work.
So … the connections hatched a plan to run Coneygree in the Cotswold chase on Cheltenham trials day in the race won by Many Clouds. Had they been able to run him, I dare say they would have answered a few questions about how good the horse is and given him some experience of Cheltenham at the same time. Unfortunately, Coneygree tweaked a muscle behind and so the plan changed to Newbury. Unlike Cheltenham trials day, Newbury has a three mile novices’ chase (won by King’s Palace) but the connections were rather taken with the idea of testing their horse against seasoned campaigners in the Denman chase. The thinking was this: if he won ‘easily’, then the Gold Cup is an option to be mulled over in the light of likely going conditions and weather forecasts nearer the time. Anything less than ‘easily’ and it was back to plan A. Well Dicky Johnson got off Coneygree after the Denman and said that he was ‘never out of his comfort zone’ in the race, which one supposes equates to an easy win.
A lot of ‘experts’ are getting hot and bothered about the fact that Coneygree is a novice and should not run in a Gold Cup. It must be particularly galling for punters holding ante-post wagers on Coneygree for the RSA in which he still might run, and amusingly many of them have been bombarding Mark Bradstock’s email address to air their grievance and offer advice. The fact is Coneygree might well have bagged a novices’ chase at the back end of last season, but the decision was taken to preserve his novices’ status by putting him away for the summer. In any event, it is surely the horse’s lack of experience rather than the fact that he is a novice that may count against him in the end.
For my part, I hope there is a dry spell leading up to the Festival, with (correct) forecasts of a deluge on the Thursday. There is something reminiscent of Denman about his attitude and style of running: if the going contains the words soft or heavy, he’ll take some passing.
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