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It’s been very quiet on here for obvious reasons but hoping we can get going again and start debating some quality flat racing. Really missed the thread over the start of the season. I have a couple of real fancies for this at Ascot this year, rapidly becoming one of my fav races on the calendar, especially after backing Advertise @ 20/1 antipost last year. I am a big fan of Siskin and had one of my biggest bets of the season on for the Middle Park so was mighty disappointed in what happened there. He has a lot to prove after that stalls wise and plenty of people want to knock his form but he won a group one on ground he would’ve hated and I hold him in very high regard. I took 20s a long time ago but still 12/14 are available. The other I like is Arizona. Horses with a joint sire index of less than 17 that are 14/1 or lower for the 2000 Guineas are 0/18 over the last 10 years with an average finishing position of 7th. Reports today that Arizona is ripping up the gallops, well if he doesn’t stay the Guineas there’s only one place he’s heading and I’m all over 20/1. It’s hard to be confident in anything this season but I have some at least in having the top two Commonwealth Cup horses in the market both at 20/1.
Siskin 20/1 ( think 12s/14s still available)
Arizona 20/1
Frenchy i am going to have a look at the market and get back.
One question i have is given the current proposed calendar, don;t you think it’s pretty hard for them to do a guineas + a commonwealth? Will they even do that?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I was really hoping(like Frenchy) Siskin would have a go at this but looks like the Irish 2000, no money lost but just believe he will be better at trips up too a mile
Hi Jack, well since I wrote that I now read yesterday that Siskin is more likely to stay in Ireland for the Irish Guineas disappointingly which would rule him out of Ascot if that’s the case. It’s very frustrating how they’ve not all been able to get together and make a better calendar around it. For Arizona, it’s not ideal but 2 weeks gap is very doable and I think they would’ve learnt a lot with Ten Sovereigns last year as they rode him completely differently when he won the July Cup after he flopped a bit at Ascot, plus Arizona has course winning form so he will be familiar with Ascot.
But you are right to make the point and spread caution as there’s a lot more uncertainty this year on where they are heading of course. Plus I’m making the assumption Arizona definitely goes to the English Guineas as well which is purely based on my view.
In terms of training, is there such a big difference between training a horse for 6f and training a horse for 8f? My view is (and I’m not a horse trainer!) is that it won’t be that significant if the horse is good enough.
All that might be factored into the 20/1 to be fair, but I’m still happy to take it at this stage.
I’d probably agree with you guys that siskin doesn’t strike me as a proper miler. It’s risky this year, as he won’t have this race to fall back on if he doesn’t stay a mile.
Having actually looked at the market, it’s a real hard race to second guess at this stage. I can see your Arizona shout, and if he’s earmarked to arrive here, you’ll be looked at a 8/1 shot i suspect and shorter on the day. I see Ger mentioned in the paper that Arizona was meant to be working like an aeroplane he heard. Make of that what you will of course haha.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I had a free bet on siskin ages ago at boosted price of 22/1
Does look like the revised schedule will put pay to his participation
Mums Tipple 12/1
Looks very pacey, possibly too pacey for the guineas don’t think he’ll stay strong enough and with Threat targeted for the St James Palace stakes think Mums Tipple will take this raceGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Was really taken with Art Power last year, and again on Monday. Might go for the 5f handicap that has been added for this year though, which would be a mistake. More I look at this market, the more Golden Horde strikes me as a really solid eachway bet (well, as solid as one can be with only a couple having run this calendar year). Assume Hurricane Ivor won’t come over from France for this, but he’d be a single figure price on the day if so. Find Mums Tipple the hardest horse to judge, like Nathan I don’t have him down as a Guineas type at all. Although he set that blistering time figure at York the horses in behind have let the form down for me. Regarding some of the others, We’ll obviously learn more at Newcastle on Thursday (gosh that’s tomorrow!) and I’m not going to guess which AOB horses line up here pre-Guineas.
I think Kimari is a cracking bet for this, should be half the price at least. The price won’t look too clever if she does not step off the plane this weekend though.
Went back to the states after running second here last year and went on to break the course record at Keenland before finishing like a rocket against the boys in the Breeders Cup Juv Sprint after a rough passage.
Had a pipe opener on the dirt in early April in a good field beating a horse that finished runner up in three G1’s last year. No record of that race in the trade papers here but found a replay.
Agree with you, I’ve added Kimari as well Botchy, but I’ll stop there now with the anti post until nearer the race day, as there is several with claims in the market at the moment I’d say.
Here is a postcard for you Frenchy
https://twitter.com/Intracingbureau/status/1268802467208335360/photo/1
reckon this could be the race of the week – ive got so many on my shortlist – pierre lapin/golden horde/kimari/wooded/millisle/art power etc
if they run think kimari and art power would be main two if they dont run probably millisle
I’m really hoping Arizona comes here now for my 20/1 antipost , Kimari next best for now!
Sadly Arizona not running, so I’ve had another look tonight and really like Millisle now. Highest rated in the field and a grp1 winner over 6f. I never thought she’d stay the Guineas and this is right back to where she should be strong. Out of a Diamond Jubilee winner with a Kings Stand winner on the dam side, she’s a lot of value at 12s for me.
Millisle 12/1
Kimari 16/1 (antipost)Have they made any excuses for her guineas run?
As she was beaten after 2f
Never travelled at all
I haven’t seen any comments FF no, but Advertise was also well beaten a long way out in the 2K last year before winning this. I just can’t have people saying she didn’t give her running and it wasn’t the distance that beat her though personally. (I’ve read that a couple of times now). It just ignores all the stats & trends that told us just can’t stay a mile in the Guineas.
I guess it depends on whether people want to focus on stats or visuals. I do both personally, but it leads with stats. It’s been proven in the Guineas, 1K & 2K time and time again and as I said Advertise was also not bred for a Guineas mile but for a 6F sprint. He runs awful and comes back and wins this at 8/1. (could’ve got 20s on him before the Guineas)
If we ignore the 1000 Guineas run, a lot of people were focusing in on that Cheveley Park run, she actually didn’t run that dissimilar. Got outpaced in the middle of the race and then stayed on a bit at the end but whereas the Cheveley Park however played exactly to her (on paper) breeding strengths the Guineas mile was too far.
So we probably can draw a line through it. If we do that and focus on her correct distance, her form is 12121 with a Group 1 win to boot!
12/1 is massive.
That’s not even taking into account her run from off the pace in a well run 6F at Newmarket is tailor-made for Ascot!
Plus it’s not that strong a line up.
My worry is her trainer. I don’t know how much I trust Mrs JH and of course there is no 3year old form for Millisle to go on now that proves she can be a decent 3 year old, but I think that’s factored into the price.
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