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Nicholls is on a profit warning, hanging on by his fingernails, the others are Tom Symonds, Chris Gordon, Nicky Richards. Fry has a few trying today, a couple are short so doubled them with slightly better value runners.
Yes, according to the Racing Post site Colin Tizzard has only had 2 winners in 18 runners in the last 14 days. But for a good guide to trainers in form it’s also important to consider “expectation“.
14 of the 18 started 6/1 or bigger. Of those 14 horses 9 started double figure odds and all bar one of the 9 starting 14/1 or more and 5 of them 20/1+. So (if the market was correct) only 4 horses had more than a 12.5% chance of winning. On course vets said Tizzard’s best horse Lostintranslation (15/2 chance) bled… and imo probably best left handed anyway – valid excuses.
The 4 @ shorter than 6/1 couldn’t be what you might call “expected” to win, shortest priced of them 15/8 (so judging by the market around a 33% chance of winning and 67% chance of losing). 3 of the 4 ran well enough (one beaten 1 3/4, one beat 2 3/4 and one 3 3/4, all 3 of them 2nd. Last mentioned The Big Breakaway despite not jumping or looking as good temperament as the winner.
2 winners from those 18 runners, one @ 17/2 and one @ 16/1.
Therefore punters who’ve backed every Tizzard runner in the last 14 days would be +£8.50 in profit.Colin Tizzard is is certainly not in what I’d call “good form“, but is imo not in poor form either.
Value Is EverythingNathan,
Even the best manager can only do so much with what he’s got. For sure Wenger’s latter days at Arsenal were’nt as successful trophywise compared to earlier years… But many more teams had greater financial clout in those latter days. So Wenger couldn’t be expected to produce the same results and therefore a “decline” was bound to happen..Since Wenger’s departure Arsenal have slipped a lot lot further; strongly suggesting Wenger was doing the best he or anyone could with the team he had. And/or losing such a big part of their team has had a negative influence on Arsenal’s performance.
Losing a child is absolutely awful. Losing a daughter who played such an important job in Colin Tizzard’s day to day business… Psycologically it must be extremely difficult to carry on that business in the way they’ve done previously. Rightly, for a while yet nothing in this great triviality we call Racing will seem as important as it once did.
Hope the Tizzards are back in the big time later this year.
Value Is EverythingThis is a very poor post Ginge, as you’re missing the entire picture. I don’t give a c**p about two winners in the last 14 days.
Look at it properly: A stable with an overall strike rate of 15% in the past five years (which is still very mediocre considering the quality of horses they’ve had) has only managed to win 10% of its races this season. Now this is a very significant difference.
Then, you also have to consider the winners to horses ratio:
It is 20 form 103 so far this season which equals roughly 20% compared to the 124 winners from 218 different horses over the past five years. This would equal 57%!!!! Now this is a huge difference in my opinion.And if you’re an owner you don’t go by the profit the stable’s other horses can generate, it is more the success you’re having with single winners. The fact that Tizzards horses are starting at much higher prices this season, just shows you that they can’t be operating that good. A 10% strike rate for him is very poor and I tend to say they’re badly out of form.
Tizzard had a better 2019/2020 season but even then I stopped following his hurdlers before Christmas due to diminishing SR. Two of my followed trainers are currently in the 80% + SR, Fancied runners only.
Ex-Ruby:
Did you read both of my posts or just the one before posting the above?With the death of Colin’s daughter and (just as importantly to the business) Joe’s sister, a hopefully temporary decline in the stable’s strike rate should only be expected.
However, in my experience how well a stable is going at any particular moment in time should not be judged by a comparitively long period. You are judging a trainer’s current runners by what has happened this season. In other words between April 2020 and January 2021… and this when Colin’s daughter Kim died only in May. You can do so if you wish, but personally I find it best judging trainers in form looking at far shorter periods. Sometimes from days let alone weeks and definitely not months. ie Am sure Tizzard’s stable hasn’t been at its very best and still isn’t – which can only be expected. However, all I am saying is the state of the Tizzard yard is imo not as bad as you’re making out.
Each to his own,
Value Is EverythingGinge, apologies, if I my post was a bit offensive.
From a punter’s point of view you’re right about your definition regarding a stable in form. I was looking at the entire picture and even considering the presence of his deceased daughter, I thought the stable was a bit underperforming, even in the last five years. This season their strike has been even poorer compared to previous years and I just think it is a stable one should avoid.
By the way, Donald McCain had three winners from three runners at Musselburgh yesterday. No runners today and I think they have five at Catterick tomorrow.
McCain is crafty, he has been holding back until his treble yesterday, reckon there may be a winner or two at Catterick.
Woolf, I knew you had Chris Gordon high on your list. He is quite shrewd at places like Fontwell or Plumpton and when the money is down (we’re talking mostly about novice hurdles) you can follow that trail.
Ginge, agree it is not black and white re the board/financial stuff but look at Liverpool’s net spend, there are teams with greater financial clout so it can be done
Since Wenger went they were bound to continue to struggle as the managers had the same board as him and would take a genius like Klopp to wipe up the mess Wenger left them in. Ferguson left as Champions a massive difference
The lad in charge now is an amateur yet showed more tactical brains in last seasons FA Cup run than Wenger did in his last 9 years in charge. No way would Arsenal have won the FA Cup last season with him in charge because he 99.99% of time refused to change his tactics and they would have been ripped open in either Semi final or final against very strong City and Chelsea sides. Arteta is struggling in the league but needs to find the right balance in tactics but at least he hasn’t gone into big games blind. Wenger won a few FA Cups in his latter years but luck of the draw etc. Think they played a Championship side in the final one year and that went to extra time
I won’t write anything else on Wenger as this is the racing section but did have a thread on him for years in the sports section and showing up his naiveitesCharles Darwin to conquer the World
Yes, I have him in a special category, he prepares for groups of winners every few weeks, he’ll be quiet for a while after a purple patch, I’ll check on him near the end of the month looking for multiple entries.
Yet more signs today of how badly out of form Tizzard is. I really do hope things start to turn around for them. Aki Bomaye (son of Stowaway, and a half-brother to Supreme Novices’ Hurdle runner-up Granit Jack) who was a convincing winner of a Turtulla maiden point-to-point on debut is entered in a maiden hurdles at Lingfield and Chepstow next week. This is another one owned by Mrs Mary-Ann Middleton who saw her Oscar Elite run so dreadfully today. There are obviously still good looking prospects coming to the yard and this will be one to keep an eye on.
Strange stuff from the Tizzard runners yesterday, all so directionless with their campaigning and placement of horses at the moment. Really does feel like there are human factors involved above all.
You’d think it would be quite clear that 3m in heavy ground isn’t at all what Vision Des Flos wants. He’s a weak finisher and seems to have his problems at any distance but that was a particularly odd one. Sizing Cusimano inexplicably below par as well at Market Rasen.
Fiddlerontheroof also suddenly a very disappointing horse looking a bit tripless and gutless. Although on the plus side perhaps they will bungle their way into having a live Paddy Power Gold Cup horse next season if this season is a write-off and they start from the bottom up over the summer.
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