Cloudy lane – shouldn't be that short, opposable?

[deeman]

4:30 Ayr – Cloudy Lane will be way to short a price to win tomorrow, its 12 years old and a very classy chaser back in the day but Special Portrait is less exposed and could be up for taking this race. 7/2 EACH WAY BANKER

Deeman

[CheltenhamSpecialist]

You are 100% right

I prefer Special Portrait anyway but even if I fancied Cloudy Lane I wouldn’t want to back him at odds on, the 2/11 RP tissue price is the most ridiculous odds I’ve seen in years.
So he’s a safer bet than Big Bucks, Frankel Hurricane Fly….not in a million years

[Gingertipster]

Haven’t got a clue if Cloudy Lane is value. But should be much better suited by tomorrows trip than the 2m6f110y of his second at Newbury. And if I was going to have an ante-post bet on the Foxhunter, 16/1 is worth considering.

Value Is Everything

[The Young Fella]

The Newbury race looks like the hottest hunter chase run this year. I might be getting deceived by the amount of formerly classy rules horses that took part, of course, but Cloudy Lane’s second there looks like standout form.

The extra distance should suit also but yikes that 2/11 tissue price looks ridiculous! Cloudy Lane is undoubtedly not as quick as he was, could miss a fence even in his younger days and might meet the dreaded ‘bounce’ factor tomorrow. The four-years-younger Special Portrait has a progressive look to his form also and could continue improving beyond what he has shown so far. It is an intriguing match.

Cloudy Lane is probably a worthy favourite, but the current disparity is insane.

I remember The Bajan Bandit almost being turned over by a younger pointer in this a few years ago. It could be deja vu…

[graysonscolumn]

Note that Special Portrait won a hunter at Ayr about this time last year (probably the corresponding race), has been aimed for this contest for a while now, and had the form of his January 29th Sheriff Hutton victory franked by the 3l second Harmony Brig going in at Overton on Sunday.

Note also that everything that could have gone wrong prior to that Sheriff Hutton victory did go wrong. Per my copy in the

Weekender

the following midweek;

“I’m chuffed to bits – we’ve had such a hard time the last few weeks”, [trainer Mark] Hughes remarked. “It was the original plan to come here on the 15th [the first date for this meeting before the weather intervened], then we missed days due to frost. He’s also had a haematoma between his legs and we’ve not been able to do much more than lunge him this week”.

There’d also been the small matter of a second-fence fall (very uncharacteristic) at Alnwick on January 22nd.

Special Portrait looked pretty fit at Sheriff, but I can imagine him stripping fitter still today if he’s had a less interrupted time of things in the interim. On Official Ratings he probably shouldn’t prove quite good enough, but I don’t think the disparity in his and Cloudy Lane’s chances quite warrants best prices of 5-1 and 2-9 respectively.

gc

Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.

[sberry]

If form and ratings mean anything and if the horse is fit it only has to stay on it’s hooves to win, so the 2/9 is about right.

Your each way banker bet needs only one of the other three to not take part to become a win only bet, yes you can do it on betfair but any NR deduction could be horrid.

I know it’s been a while since jumps action has occured, but punting in a five runner hunter chase over three and a bit miles in the mud worth £856 at 4.30pm where there is a ‘nailed on’ fav at very short odds is surely desperation?

[robnorth]

I think Cloudy Lane is likely to win, but is not without flaws from past experience. He came a cropper in a small field at Kelso a three seasons back. Special Portrait is in good form and will likely come on for his outing at Sheriff Hutton. On that basis the percentage call is for Special Portrait.

That being said, I really don’t get the idea of an ‘each-way banker’ where a place returns a loss… If the bet is good why not go all in for a win?

Rob

[Gingertipster]

That being said, I really don’t get the idea of an ‘each-way banker’ where a place returns a loss… If the bet is good why not go all in for a win?

Rob

Can’t see why not Rob. It’s a "saver" bet after all, and there’s not much difference between getting

almost all

your money back and

all

your money back. If that is the way a punter wants to bet.

This race is a straight 5 runner field with 22/1, 25/1 and 80/1 shots taking him on for the place. Surprised you don’t use this sort of bet. It’s a 1/4 odds a place race too and (now 5/1). If I was betting on the second fav it would certainly be EW.

Although, having said that, this type of bet runs the risk of bookmakers closing your account.

Value Is Everything

[cormack15]

Special Portrait rewards the e/w fans at 5/1.

[Eclipse First]

Special Portrait rewards the e/w fans at 5/1.

Not as well as if those who backed Cloudy Lane to win.

[sberry]

CSF paid 11/10

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