- This topic has 37 replies, 17 voices, and was last updated 3 years, 3 months ago by
.
- Posts
Entries…
https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/85/warwick/2023-01-14/828505
Definitely no Antepost selection here, but few catching the eye.
Really liked the run of Lord Du Mesnil last time, and at a push, he’s my main fancy right now off the back of that, but I just wonder if we’ll see him at Haydock next, where there a couple of races to suit him in the near future.
I think that this is an ideal opportunity at the weights for Notachance to win it again, and he’s high on the shortlist, for all he’s an obvious shout. Think he’s a cert to run, and the current 9’s appeals in that regard.
The other two who immediately catch the eye, certainly at current prices, are old favourites Commodore and Dingo Dollar. 16’s and 20’s respectively, good odds for a pair who are as good as any of these on their day, but conversely, very risky horses Antepost. I’ll hold off.
Definitely one to revisit over the weekend for me, but if having an early bet, it’d be Notachance at the 9’s
Chezza had the 14s with Bet365 yesterday.
Unless it’s completely “gone,” it’s thrown in.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I took the early double figures on Notachance too Ian, as it was definitely a rick. He is surely a big player here, and I could see him being near fav
I’ve also bet Grand Mogul at 33-1. I’m just dipping my toe in the water with him, as I think that he might be a bigger price at the weekend with improved place terms.
I’ve now added Grand Mogul ew just in case he gets support. I still plan to bet him again at the weekend
Sorry, I did not see this thread and opened another earlier (happily closed now by admin: thanks).
Volcano is a cracking little grey horse with loads of guts. He is 10lbs out of the weights here, carrying 10.2. This marks a significant step up in grade from Class 3 handicaps to this Class 1. I can’t recall if I’ve ever tipped a horse so far out of the weights, but I am happy to do so here
He is unbeaten in four runs at Warwick – winning each of those easily, one of them over this trip. Ground is forecast as heavy, which he has run on twice without success (both runs about 3 years ago). But I think his love of this track outweighs that by quite some measure.
Such is his enthusiasm for fencing, he occasionally loses concentration and hits one, but it doesn’t seem to bother him. He has fallen just once, under a 7lb amateur. Saturday’s jockey Ben Jones gets on very well with him. Trainer Sheila Lewis doesn’t have many horses and is probably best known for her stable star Straw Fan Jack, who’s won twice this season. I think Volcano has a good chance of sharing future glories with his stablemate. I’d have him here as no more than a 12/1 chance, and he is strongly recommended, Skybet’s 5 place EW terms making the bet more attractive at the 22/1 on offer.
I also like 8/1 chance Nestor Park in this, a horse I’ve followed for some time. He is consistent and has run some good races. His second top Racing Post Rating came on heavy ground and he will get the trip. This is his second run of the season, having gone really well over 28f at Haydock in November, beaten about 3 lengths. He’s improving and has a strong chance. Trainer Ben Pauling is still going well and has a 14-day strike rate for winners of 24% (placed 38%) as I write (Thursday afternoon).
That’s it. Good luck.
JoeI reckon it’s the pesky sponsor who caused the confusion.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"The current top two in the betting look opposable to me – Threeunderthrufive is showing signs he doesn’t like competitive fields with more than a handful of opponents, whilst Mr Incredible is a moonhowler who had effectively refused to race on two of his last three starts. I’m not totally sure this is ideal for Iwilldoit first time out after a long absence, which leads me to Gaitapan Collonges – young, improving, won around here last time out and should handle the likely heavy ground. That will do me nicely.
I’m with Joe. Volcano is a horse i like and the trainer is one of my favourites for big priced winners too. 10lbs out of the weights is a fair chunk but he loves the course and a feather weight in tough conditions is always an advantage. I took the 33s (each way) yesterday.
“I reckon it’s the pesky sponsor who caused the confusion.”
It was better when it was the Brooke Bond Oxo National.
100%!
I remember buying an ITV7 NH season softback publication at WH Smiths in the 1970s and it had every racecourse, with maps, and an itinerary of the races scheduled for ITV7 coverage, including that race.
Never mind the fact it was usually abandoned due to frost or waterlogging, those were the days!
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"RTV showed a few of the Brooke Bond Oxo races last night, which brought back a few memories. Bonum Omen in 1983 in particular.
I think television coverage of the race stopped not long afterwards, presumably when World of Sport was discontinued.
Notachance won this off nine pounds more in 2021, and was 8th in a better renewal last year off the same mark when out of form. Many talking up Lord Du Mesnil’s second to Le Milos at Bangor, but Notachance ran well that day to finish 4th.
Very intrigued to see what Iwilldoit does this season. He’s on 147 now, so they won’t want him to run a stinker or two lest his weight goes down to 143 or less and he doesn’t get in the Grand National, which is surely the target? That all said, winning this may not be the priority seeing as that would put him up to 150-something.
I’m a big Fortescue fan but he was never in the Welsh National so I have to leave him alone today.
As usual, so many old and new favourites here, so I’m probably leave it alone as a betting medium. Unless I feel lucky on the day and have a spare fiver to wave at the Alan King horse.
“which brought back a few memories. Bonum Omen in 1983 in particular.”
I was there!
I think it was the only time in my three years at Warwick Uni that the fixture wasn’t abandoned!
I was stood down at the last on the inside in the Silver Ring, having led an expedition there from the Warwick University Turf Club I’d created and having been sold a load of discounted tickets by Edward Gillespie!
It was freezing but sunny and, no, I didn’t back Bonum Omen!
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Thanks CAS!
Regarding tomorrow, I’ve got 14/1 Notachance, who wins it on 2021 form but more recently he was behind Lord Du Mesnil last time out and is hardly weighted to turn the tables.
That has to be a concern!
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.