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On the all weather many times you will read form like 6/10 beaten 8 lengths Class 4 and the horse has been dropped into a class 5 race.
He/she may well start fav for the class 5 race based on that form.
My question is is there rough guide on distance you use or pro punters use between classes?
For example are class 5 horses 5 lengths better than class 6, 1 length or what.
I have often wondered that myself Fist,not that i get too involved with class 5 and 6 races,but the same logic applies to class 1,2 and 3 etc! To the eye,i have seen on many occassions a potential Group horse running away from a class 4 bunch of maidens,that will never progress from just that! Unfortunately you cant apply "lengths" to class rigidly as there are too many imponderables! Weight would offset that idea also,in handicaps!The clock wont help in handicaps either,because of the framing of the weights!Trust your judgement, its pretty good over the jumps,you need to avoid the flat like the plague!! It takes a special breed to be successful at both!!
(C7) 52 (C6) 60 (C5) 68 (C4) 80 (C3) 92 (C2) 96 (C1) 100 (G3) 106 (G2) 112 (G1) 120
If you take the above pars which I use for each class, you will see that there is a difference or 12lb’s between a class 5 and a class 4 race.
If the race was over 5f (3.5lbs per length) this would mean a class diffence of 3.4 lengths.
if the race was over 8f (2.0 lbs per length) this would mean a class diffence of 6 lengths.
if the race was over 12f (1.5 lbs per length) this would mean a class diffence of 8 lengths.
if the race was over 16f (1.0 lb per length) this would mean a class diffence of 12 lengths.Just a rough guide but the most importance thing is the race distance, as a horse beaten 2 lengths in a 5f race would need to improve 7lb’s to match the winner, where as a horse beaten 2 lengths is a 2 mile race will only need to find 2lb’s.
If you look at my excel sheet in systems (Private Handicapping) on sheet 3 there is my
complete chart of race pars, and all you have to do is work out the distance per pound i.e. 1 length = 3.5lb’s over 5 furlongs etc.- Total Posts 17716
You got to take the pace of the race into consideration.
There is a book, Class Figures, by Stuart Eaton (Raceform / Racing Post).
I’ve never finished reading it, or used his method.
It deals with the Flat in general, rather than the All Weather.
Raceform Update has both form figures and speed figures. If you look at the Speed Pars
112 Group 1
111 Group 2
108 Group 3
107 Class 1 (basically, Listed?)
108 Class 2
105 Class 3
103 Class 4
100 Class 5
99 Class 6
96 Class 7you will see that there is a small jump between class 6 & 5 etc, and that there is a big jump from class 7 to class 6, class 3 to class 2, Group 3 to Group 2.
I think the Class 2’s are quicker than the Class 1’s, because most of the Class 2’s are major h’caps with big fields, and most of the Class 1’s are Listed races.
Anyway, this chap assigns ratings to both racecourses and the class of races, and then does a bit of jiggery-pokery. These figures are based on prize money.
For the All Weather, the class figures of the courses are
14 Kempton & Lingfield
11 Wolverhampton & SouthwellThe class figure points for the class of race are
135 Group 1
110 Group 2
105 Group 3
100 Class 1
95 Class 2
47 Class 3
31 Class 4
19 Class 5
14 Class 6
8 Class 7One then applies these formulae:-
(Course Points + Race Class Points)/2 = yy + or – lengths won or lengths beaten = final Class Figure
He also uses points to assess which are the best types of races to bet in.
There isn’t any AW racing today, so I’ll do the 3.15 at Lingfield yesterday as an example.
Florio Vincitore (last AW race) Southwell Class 5, beaten 3.75 lengths.
( 11+ 19 ) /2 = 15
15 – 4 lengths beaten =11
Musaafer (AW race (debut) ) Kempton Class 4, beaten 2.25 lengths
( 14 + 31) / 2 = 22
22 – 2 =20
Zaahy Lingfield Class 5, won 2.5 lengths
( 14 + 19) /2 = 16
16.5 + 2.5 =19
I’ve never finished reading the book, so I don’t know whether he rounds up or down, or keeps the decimals.
I’ve probably given a little bit too much information, but at least I haven’t given the class figures for the turf courses, so if you want those, you’ll have to buy the book. (£12.99)
I’ve never used this method, and I don’t even know the result of this race at Lingfield yesterday.
I thought that I would rate each course like Stuart Eaton did, to see what I would come up with.
I took all the improvers that I rated against the BHA official handicapper, and took the medium of all the figures to apply ratings to every flat racing track (Turf/AW) in Britain.
The lowest rating was given to Brighton, no surprise there.Course Class
Ascot – 101
York – 96
Doncaster – 91
Newmarket – 91
Sandown – 91
Epsom – 89
Haydock – 89
Chester – 88
Goodwood – 87
Newbury – 85
Ripon – 85
Windsor – 82
Leicester – 80
Pontrefact – 79
Salisbury – 77
Ayr – 76
Bath – 76
Nottingham – 76
Newcastle – 75
Warwick – 75
Carlisle – 74
Catterick – 74
Kempton AW – 73
Thirsk – 73
Redcar – 72
Beverley – 71
Folkestone – 71
Hamilton – 71
Lingfield – 71
Lingfield AW – 71
Southwell AW – 70
Yarmouth – 70
Chepstow – 69
Musselburgh – 69
Wolverhampton AW – 68
Brighton – 66- Total Posts 17716
Fist
As a quick rule of thumb which will serve most purposes, allow 8lbs for each step in grade, either flat or jumps.Fist , I think Reet has it about right , but why on earth would you want to be interested in class 5 or 6 races , these are the roulette fodder for the betting shop mugs and other miscreants who cannot wait to part from their cash .
Bookies demand and get loads and loads of races like these . racing slavishly agrees and the whole rotten process continues …..why help them out ??
cheers
Ricky
Fist , I think Reet has it about right , but why on earth would you want to be interested in class 5 or 6 races , these are the roulette fodder for the betting shop mugs and other miscreants who cannot wait to part from their cash .
Ricky
Speak for yourself. Some of us do quite well thankyou.
I’ve just glanced through your listing of racecourses, BB. At first glance, I’d have thought Goodwood would be rated a tadge higher . . .
Don’t bet in Maidens etc, so I’ve never had to deal with the subject. I suppose I’ll just have to knock the course down a couple of pegs in my mindset.
Fist , I think Reet has it about right , but why on earth would you want to be interested in class 5 or 6 races , these are the roulette fodder for the betting shop mugs and other miscreants who cannot wait to part from their cash .
Speak for yourself. Some of us do quite well thankyou.
Likewise – as far as I dabble on the Flat, I do fare better at the lower levels than in the Classics. I feel I know what I’m working with more there – exposed, many-raced types to pounce on when dropping to historically attractive marks, getting optimum conditions again, etc. Maybe I’m just simple and unimaginative.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
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