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With the pace in the mares hurdle, Bitofapuzzle and Caroles Spirit can imo be marked up quite a bit. Dodging Bullets also put up a fine performance on the clock (and form). I’d be very interested to hear Simon Rowlands Ascot sectional debrief.
Value Is EverythingThe disappointing side of inconclusive for SS I would say. The CC looks like a 3 horse race now between SS, SG, DB, plus CF and AF if they decide to participate.
I think it reasonable to expect SS to improve for a number of reasons:
1. Second run can be expected to be better than first after a long lay off.
2. Better ground likely
3. Gentle treatment in this race
4. Slightly shorter trip at Cheltenham
5. Absence of health scare will probably allow more intensive training.So I think it is reasonable to keep SS as favourite. I think I would be roughly 2-1 SS, 4-1 DB, 5-1 SG, 6-1 CF and AF, 20-1 bar assuming all run (which is unlikely).
this race wont suit Dodging Bullets
at all
Cheers for that Gord, you’re worse than John Gosden
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
If there is competition in the closing stages
you just wonder how hard they will push Sprinter Sacre
. It’s a fascinating race and one of the most anticipated contests of the season.
Well, do Sprinter backers feel they got 100% from the saddle today?
I thought he got a very tender ride with eyes on the future.
Strange ride from Geraghty. Obviously we all want SS to come home safe and sound but I do not understand why, having comprehensively out jumped Dodging Bullets at the 4th and 3rd last obstacles, he did not kick on. It was as if he decided his only danger was in front of him and Somersby was beginning to flounder.
Whilst Geraghty can be forgiven for looking after the horse, there was absolutely no reason in my eyes why he couldn’t have asked his mount to lengthen again and maintain the advantage he had built up over Dodging Bullets to the second last, forcing Fehily to have to ask his mount for a long one. It is also worth remembering that SS is a confirmed stayer having won over 2m 4f at Aintree so Geraghty may have been better advised to sit closer to the pacesetter, and use the horse’s breathtaking jumping technique to better use.
I did back SS so I do feel as if I wasn’t given my money’s worth from the saddle, however the Henderson yard has been a graveyard for followers of short priced horses this winter (Close Touch another inexplicably poor performance earlier in the day), and I think SS now represents tremendous value at 7/2 to regain his crown.
Just like SDG last year, I’ve been guilty of maligning Dodging Bullets (worst Tingle Creek winner ever, I called him), but he keeps winning and appears to be progressive. Really fancy him now for Cheltenham
Ascot 17.01.2015
Going allowances:
Hurdles
-0.88s/f
(soft)
Chase-0.56s/f
(soft)
Ascot
17-Jan-15
12:40 Top Notch 2m
122
01:15 Kings Lad 2m3f
115
01:50 Bitofapuzzle 3m
104
02:25 Baradari 2m3½f
110
03:00 Dodging Bullets 2m1f
157
03:35 Rebel Rebellion 2m5½f
122
04:05 Out Sam 2m6f
93
The speed figure of
155
Sprinter Sacre earned today just
blew me awayDodging Bullets
157
Sprinter Sacre (FR)
155
Twinlight (FR)
150
Somersby (IRE)
145
Grey Gold (IRE)
137
Mike.
Just watched the race again, and DB won with a fair bit in hand, I think. He’s a most efficient jumper (touch wood) with a fine appetite for racing, and I’ve just taken some of the 5s EW NRNB for the QM
I think we are in danger of overlooking just how quickly Dodging Bullets has developed into a top notch two mile chaser. I think SC is right, 5/1 e/w looks a steal.
Blood discovered in Sprinter Sacre’s nose, but not thought to have affected performance.
Value Is EverythingIt seemed to me that Sprinter Sacre lost today for a mixture of two reasons; them being that he needed the run and is not going to be as good as he once was. He’s 9 now and, given his french-breeding, has the right to start his decline. Even if that’s not the case let us remember how Denman was never as good after he returned from the same issue. Sprinter Sacre’s never going to reach the dizzy heights of his 188 rating requires and looked in every bit as if he’ll be better for getting this comeback under his belt. I think that he ran to a mark of 166 and Dodging Bullets about 168. When you look back and see that Sire De Grugy won the Champion Chase off 169, Sizing Europe of 160, Finian’s Rainbow 164 and Big Zeb 165 then surely Dodging Bullets has every right to be good enough win the big one come March. I remember people saying last year that Sire De Grugy wouldn’t be able to hack it round Cheltenham and looked what happened. Many will fancy Sprinter Sacre to turn around the form come March, and for sound enough reason too but in the Queen Mother there will be no hiding places for a horse on the comeback trail. I wouldn’t be taking 5/2 with any confidence.
I prefer to wait for his next race before having an opinion on whether
Sprinter
is still the same horse he used to be.
He hasn’t run for a very looooooong time, and I am, above all else, more than happy to see him back on track after such serious problems.But what is sure,
Dodging Bullets
looks more and more convincing for a triumph in the next Champion Chase. I didn’t believe in him at all at the beginning of this season. But now he has clearly improved…
this race wont suit Dodging Bullets
at all
Cheers for that Gord, you’re worse than John Gosden
I honestly thought the ground would be Heavy when I wrote that Steve so fully expected
Dodging Bullets
to get beat.I never had a penny on him but have to confess it was a result that bodes well for his Champion chase chances.I will confess when I saw 4/6
Sprinter Sacre
I thought every man and his dog have heard fantastic reports of the Big horses homework,turning for home I thought Sh*t ‘Sprinters going to win this by 10 lengths so again was pleasantly surprised to see my fellow beat him well.Around Cheltenham on good ground you will see another 10lb improvement from Pauls horse,he being a Flat bred horse will sprint away from the last.TAPK cant see any other result even on soft ground now he’ll win,I just need him to turn up.
this race wont suit Dodging Bullets
at all
Cheers for that Gord, you’re worse than John Gosden
I honestly thought the ground would be Heavy when I wrote that Steve so fully expected
Dodging Bullets
to get beat.I never had a penny on him but have to confess it was a result that bodes well for his Champion chase chances.I will confess when I saw 4/6
Sprinter Sacre
I thought every man and his dog have heard fantastic reports of the Big horses homework,turning for home I thought Sh*t ‘Sprinters going to win this by 10 lengths so again was pleasantly surprised to see my fellow beat him well.Around Cheltenham on good ground you will see another 10lb improvement from Pauls horse,he being a Flat bred horse will sprint away from the last.TAPK cant see any other result even on soft ground now he’ll win,I just need him to turn up.
The handicapper has stuck Dodging Bullets up to 171 with a 5lb rise so that leaves him just a pound behind Sire De Grugy. Depending how the latter horse gets on in his comeback could have a big say in the market for the Champion Chase.
The trainer was very upbeat about the reining champ and seemed quite bullish but he has now said that Sire Se Grugy will probably be short of peak fitness on his seasonal debut and not as forward in his work as he would like. It seems a total backtrack in confidence, with Moore now saying he’s not sure if the horse was as good as he was before, when earlier they were gushing that the horse was in great nick and could perhaps have run in the Clarence House.
I hate this sort of BS from trainers. If they can’t make their mind up about how it is I wish they would just STFU.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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