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Formerly a handicap chase up until 2006 but was then promoted to Grade 1 status from 2008 (no race in 2007).
In those 7 races as a Grade 1 the top rated horse has won the last 6 times and the Offiical Rating has been 166 or higher. In all 7 races, apart from Somersby (4th) in 2012 the winner had won last time out.
Those are the trends, it shouldn’t be too difficult to identify the top rated horse and hopefully the same outcome will result and provide us with a winner.
First things first – I would like nothing other than for Sprinter Sacre to fly away from the field up the home straight on Saturday and go on to win the Champion Chase by half a furlong.
However, given the fact that I am going to have a bet in the race and see no reason to back Sprinter at 4/5, am not too taken with Dodging Bullets and have already had a bet on Somersby for the Champion Chase – I’m going to take a punt on Twinlight.
If for whatever reason Sprinter Sacre doesn’t run his race then the Irish chaser must have a chance if you take the view he’s never been better and conditions should be to suit. A small bet each-way at 9/1 will suite me fine. Hopefully Walsh will ride. If Sprinter wins then I’ll be delighted and ditto if Somersby returns victorious given that I’m sure odds of 33/1 for Cheltenham will disappear as quickly as the title hopes of Liverpool fans.
plenty of rain forecast for today/tonight and Wednesday night. Been a pessimist like NH don’t think we will see SS on Saturday
Waiting with a nervous anticipation..
Heh heh heh I’m sure you are.
Unfortunately being a "stats man" and using trends to help my try and identify winners, I have to stick with what I know and that means sometimes situations like this arise. I have no doubt that Sprinter Sacre would walk this if he hadn’t had the problems over the last year or so, but I have been quite successful with my analysis and have to stick with it, otherwise what’s the point ?
As Sprinter Sacre has not run since the King George in 2013, it means that he has not been rated at this stage. If the horse receives the top rating before the off, then he is the selection, if he remains unrated going into the race, then Dodging Bullets becomes the selection being the top rated horse.
Regardless of the result, I just hope that all horses get round safely and if Sprinter Sacre shows anything like he has done in the past, it will be a great race to watch.
Good luck with your bets.
I know that he has been confirmed for the race today, but will he run? Is he really as fit as his trainer wants him to be? And what price should he really be?
I assume we are talking about Sprinter Sacre. I think there is a fair chance he will be a non-runner. There has been fairly persistent rain today and more could come tomorrow. Apparently Nicky is due to walk the course on Thursday, when I expect it will be soft. At that point I think he could excuse SS and say the next target is the Game Spirit, where he might clash with Sire de Grugy.
@ kasparov: Now that is a more likely scenario in my opinion.
I would love to see him first time out against Sire De Grugy at Newbury. It would be a more interesting trial I think since you would have the last 2 winners of the CC returning both from injury.Nicky Henderson seems desperate to weasel out of running Sprinter Sacre here. He has a new excuse in every interview he gives at the moment. Soft ground? ‘Not quite ready’? He has even said that French Opera is more than capable of winning the race.
Sprinter Sacre is a bit weak in the betting, out to 5/4 now and Dodging Bullets is steadily coming in to around 2/1.
Reports regarding Sire De Grugy have been very upbeat and I prefer him for Cheltenham at 5/1, as value against Sprinter at 2/1.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Simonsig ended up being out for the season after being slated to return and I wouldn’t be surprised if Sprinter Sacre went the same way, Ascot now being predicted to be heavy on Saturday so the perfect excuse not to run then
Simonsig ended up being out for the season after being slated to return and I wouldn’t be surprised if Sprinter Sacre went the same way, Ascot now being predicted to be heavy on Saturday so the perfect excuse not to run then
I doubt Sprinter Sacre will run here, all the money has been for Dodging Bullets these past few days.
The reports on Sire De Grugy have been much more positive and the trainer said he might even have been ready to run on Saturday. Bearing that in mind, he looks much more solid value at 5/1 for the Championship Chase than Sprinter Sacre does at 2/1.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
You can already get 7/4 about Sprinter for Saturday – me thinks he won’t run and the bookies know it.
Yeah, seems almost certain that we’ll have to wait for Sprinter Sacre.
Dr John Hill mentioned in our press release that all the money we’ve seen has been for Dodging Bullets. Sprinter absolutely friendless.
You can already get 7/4 about Sprinter for Saturday – me thinks he won’t run and the bookies know it.
Sprinter Sacre has drifted badly today. From a shade of odds-on he went to 5/4 and now right out to 7/4. Part of it will the ground forecast but I don’t like the vibes in general concerning the horse.
Dodging Bullets was 11/4 when I first looked and I would suggest gobbling the 2/1 available with Ladbrokes, as he is 6/4 in a few places now.
Dodging Bullets 2/1 could be Christmas in January.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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