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Weren’t Auguste Rodin and St Marks Basilica the “best we’ve ever had” as well? Funny how they seem to get one every year.
Don’t get me wrong – I like City Of Troy. I backed him for the Guineas after he won his maiden (although my post here seemed to disappear). I backed him for the Derby after he won the Superlative. I backed him when he won at York, so he has done me a good turn.
But a horse that was beaten out of sight in the Guineas, won a reasonably good Derby and then scrambled home when odds on in the Eclipse does not qualify as an all time great, no matter what Coolmore’s PR machine wants us to believe.
A win in the Classic would obviously enhance his reputation hugely and I hope he does win – but I still think it is a tall order. McNae, Candelora and Dwyer were all very lukewarm at best about his chance when discussing it on RTV earlier this week.
If, as they say, they say they still don’t know how good he is maybe they should keep him in training for another year to find out? They’re just desperate to get a stallion for the American market aren’t they.
Going by Timeform’s ratings then COT has got quite a job on in his final race to prove Aidan’s comment right, as he is still behind the following O’Brien horses:
Hawk Wing 136
Galileo & Rip Van Winkle 134
Rock of Gibraltar, So You Think, George Washington, Fame and Glory, Stravinsky & Excelebration 133
Australia, Duke of Marmalade, Dylan Thomas, High Chaparral & Giant’s Causeway 132.
I just can’t see COT improving on his 130 rating even if he does go on to win the Classic, as it would likely take a Flightlinesque type of performance from him to do so and I am not sure he has that type of advantage overs his US rivals, especially considering we are going into the complete unknown as to whether he can even act on the dirt let alone excel on it.
All their hopes about the dirt begin and end with, well he is by US Triple Crown winner Justify, so he should act on the surface……..shouldn’t he
“Rip Van Winkle 134”
One of the most laughable ratings in the long history of Timeform, and one that was only inflated to try to justify Sea The Stars’ equally preposterous 140.
Fame And Glory’s 133 is equally risible.
Coolmore have played a blinder with City Of Troy. Win by miles: one of the greats. Win narrowly: his toughness and ability got him home. Lose narrowly: such a tough and genuine horse. Get mullered: off day, just like in the Guineas.
Whatever happens: ker-ching! $$$$$$
“If, as they say, they say they still don’t know how good he is maybe they should keep him in training for another year to find out? They’re just desperate to get a stallion for the American market aren’t they.”
Being out of a Galileo mare CoT (and Auguste Rodin) will have a limited pool of Coolmore’s own Galileo-heavy mares so he’ll need significant support from outside breeders. Coolmore is in some ways a victim of its own success, as in Europe these breeders also have a lot of Galileo mares…but American breeders do not.
Has to be the greatest place lay to ever grace the exchanges, hopefully theres a proper market up on betfair to 2/3/4 places, guaranteed hes finishing out the back, will be the biggest liability ive ever had
Their greatest ever, after only two seasons; really? Too small a sample size to qualify for that, I’m afraid.
And the Hawk Wing rating is laughable…..no way was he 136; that Lockinge was an ‘outlier’, and should be ignored. Have any of them ever studied data collection?
You can’t just ignore rating a run because you think it is an ‘outlier’ performance – the 136 rating is for one individual performance (the Lockinge) and not a representation of his overall form for his whole career.
Now could the Lockinge performance rating be questioned? On face value you had a 6 runner G1 mile race where the other 5 runners were all beaten double digit distance (last to first was 24L) and while the ground was loose on top giving the indication it might have been testing leading to the exaggerated distances, the winning time was actually just 1.38s slow on what was officially good ground.
Did the others all underperform on the day?
The runner up Where Or When (beaten 11L) in his next race finished 3rd in the G1 Queen Anne (beaten 8L), 4th in the G2 Celebration Mile (beaten 2L), 6th in the G1 Moulin (beaten 5L) and ended the season finishing 6th in the QE2 beaten 7L by Falbrav.
3rd was Olden Times (beaten 19L) and in his next two races he went on to finish 4th to Nayef in the G1 Prince of Wales (beaten 4L) and then 4th to Falbrav in the G1 Eclipse (beaten 2L)
The 4th Domedriver (beaten 20L) ended the previous season winning the BC Mile (beating Rock of Gibraltar) and while he wasn’t on that same level, he did go on to narrowly finish 2nd in the G1 Marois.
The 5th Reel Buddy (beaten 20L) shockingly went on to win the G1 Sussex Stakes two runs later.
Last home was Tillerman (beaten 24L) and he went on to finish 2nd in the G1 Queen Anne (beaten 4L but was subsequently disqualified), 3rd in the G2 Celebration Mile (beaten 2L) and 3rd to Falbrav in the G1 QE2 (beaten 3L).
I would be confident in saying that the 4th, 5th & 6th all did underperform that day but the 2nd and 3rd whilst not running to their absolute best were not far enough off it to suggest that Hawk Wing (at the height of his powers on that day) did not run a big rating in thrashing them…….personally not sure it was 136 but I think it was for sure higher than the 130P City of Troy recorded at York.
In that Lockinge Timeform did / do not rate any other horse as running to form, LD / Andy.
If they had done then Hawk Wing’s rating would’ve needed to be quite a bit higher.
Where Or When’s (best) QEII victory was rated 124. His Lockinge 2nd rated some 13 lbs less, on 111. So had they rated Hawk Wing’s Lockinge performance on Where Or When’s best they’d need to rate him 149.
Incidentally, 111 is just 2 lbs higher than the 109 for his next run and 6 lbs below Where Or When’s season’s best of 117 (Celebration Mile).
The 18 lengths Lockinge third Olden Times was rated 121 at his best (on his start before Newbury) in the Earl Of Sefton… But was rated as running 30 lbs below his best, on only 91 behind Hawk Wing.
etc.The rating given to Hawk Wing is all data driven. Timeform don’t pick a horse and rate the race on that horse’s previous best. That’s old school.
https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/top-horses/timeforms
So how would you determine the rating? Discard the best rating a horse achieves?
Maybe look at the average rating?Who was the best horse of 2017? Arrogate? Battaash? Cracksman? Enable? Gun Runner? or Winx? Gun Runner put up the most 130+ performances, being extremely consistent. But he was seldom good enough to win races and did not put up as good a rating as several others. Fact is most horses only run to their very best a small number of times and many just the once (“outliers”?).
https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/timeform-ratings/how_timeform_handicaps_horses
imo…
Ratings are only one thing to take into account when assessing how likely a horse is of winning a race… And / or how we feel about a particular racehorse. Persian Punch is one of my favourite horses of all time, but his Rating is rightly nowhere near the best.However, Timeform need to give a Master Rating they believe the horse is capable of given its ideal conditions. Otherwise it would not give the subscriber a realistic understanding of the horse’s chance of winning future races (including at the time, Hawk Wing’s next race). It is also important to give horses the rating their form suggests it is worth – even if an outlier – otherwise an improving horse would not be identified as an improver until a long time afterwards. To then reduce the rating just because it is an outlier when there was / is good reason to believe the rating – would imo be wrong.
Hawk Wing’s outlier rating was quite a bit better than his second best rating… But he had not run under those conditions very often. It was only his third race at a mile. In the Guineas he’d been set a hell of a lot to do by Spencer. Held up in the centre while the smaller group (with winner Rock Of Gibraltar) on the far side well clear. Hawk Wing made up an amazing amount of ground to go down only by a neck, to a horse who’d become a multiple Group 1 winner. Yet, given the impossible task Spencer set, Hawk Wing was the moral winner – and imo by some way.
Hawk Wing was then – because Aidan had Rock Of Gibratar for the mile – campaigned at longer distances. Outstayed by Hawk Wing in the Derby, won the Eclipse before just pipped by Grandera (who’d previously won the Prince Of Wales by 5 lengths) in the Irish Champion. Back to 1 mile in the QEII in September should have suited but in a tactical race maybe – after three races over further – wasn’t used to having to quicken. Beaten 2 lengths by Where Or When. Maybe just over the top for the season. Hadn’t run in the Dewhurst, not seen after September as a two year old. There’s a chance he was best in the Spring and Summer. Apparently did not take the eye (poor coat) in his last race as a three year old – the Breeders Cup Classic. Poor start on dirt didn’t help either.
So on his previous two runs at a mile he’d had valid excuses. So the fact he improved on his third wasn’t a surprise.
What is this “data” you want Timeform to take into consideration, Andy?
Value Is EverythingI’m not overly confident at all, but I’m looking forward to seeing him one last time tonight, and it’s been good fun following him
I agree Andy. Hawk Wing was massively overrated.
I think COT will be retired tonight win or lose but I too feel he should stay in training another year unless he wins the Classic by a wide margin.
I don’t feel we’ve seen the absolute best of him and would love to see him ridden positively in the top 1m4f races like the King George, Arc and Japan Cup.
He always looks to be full of running at the end of his races so I’d like to see him pushed to the limit to see what he’s actually capable of.Totally agree GM. Such a shame that he will be off to stud. They have justify,Wootton Bassett and no nay never plus canelots had a cracking year so surely they could wait a year. I hope he either bombs out or wins. They have come so close and giants causeway got beat by a top horse so don’t want another near miss thank you.Im sure there will be more justify progeny trying to win it plus they have bought 50% of fierceness.Feeling the butterflies I must admit. Loved to see him do it but on balance unlikely he will. Horses are in good form so🤞.
Hope COT wins tonight. Helped by this not being a great Classic field, but suspect he’ll need to race prominently – out of the kickback. 3 draw doesn’t help – difficult to get an outside position out of the kickback if slower out the gate.
Value Is EverythingI don’t think the draw is much of an issue for any horse in the Classic as long as they don’t walk out. It’s a long run to the first bend with plenty of time for everyone to get their positions.
When drawn 3, if COT does not get a good break he’ll probably be right in the worst of the kickback, GM.
Whereas if drawn wider and he does not get a good break he could’ve kept on the outside – out of most of the kickback.
COT probably has a bit in hand of his rivals, so could’ve given away a few pounds by racing wider – out of most of the kickback.
If in the kickback he’s far more likely not to enjoy the experience and therefore less likely to show his form.
So when drawn 3 although it makes it easier to get a good break, his chance (from a hold up position) would imo be a lot less. So being drawn 3 means a lot more depends on how well he comes out of the gate.
Value Is EverythingI’m in a minority here, but I honestly hope he gets stuffed. I’m just fed up of Coolmore and their incessant marketing hype.
“O’Brien says he’s definitely their best horse ever and has got more improvement in him.
However, if that were true wouldn’t you keep the horse in training at four?
Is it possible they don’t want to prove it because they know it is not true? ”I reckon you’re right GT. Too much risk of him getting beaten. It’s acceptable if he gets beaten tonight as it’ll be all “we were asking the impossible really, he’s just too beautiful a moooover, first time on dirt , what with the travel and all, he’s incredible really. Unbelievable”. Whereas if they’d run in either of the Champion Stakes or the Arc and got beaten fair and square on turf, or if he stayed in training at 4 to try to burnish his reputation and a did an Auguste Rodin, well that wouldn’t do much for Our Frankel would it?
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