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Churchill Stakes 2008

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  • #9343
    Colin Little
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    • Total Posts 338

    This is the first of a series of decent 10f races which take place during the winter at Lingfield, culminating with the Winter Derby in March.

    In the past, this race has be contested by the likes of Nayyir, Compton Bolter, Genteman’s Deal, Blue Bajan, Milville, and in particular, Grand Passion, who has been a standing dish in this race (2 wins, a short-head 2nd and a 5th). If he runs this year, GP will probably be the final runner for trainer Geoff Wragg, & I’m sure a lot of sentiment will be attached to the horse. He is eight now though, & while classy, imo has never been lightening fast round Lingfield. Even without seeing the declarations, I’m fairly certain I’d be wanting to take him on. I only hope the others don’t let him win this!

    I guess the entries will be out on Mon/Tue.

    #190433
    Avatar photoMDeering
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    • Total Posts 1688

    Entries are fairly decent – Bronze Cannon, Scintillo, Yahrab, Philatelist and Marco Botti’s Re Barolo.

    Very hard to go past Bronze Cannon, who took a bucketload of my money in the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot, but definitely has a bright future.

    The Golden Rose sees War Officer having transferred from Jean-Claude Rouget to Simon Callaghan. Another with some great potential.

    #190481
    davidjohnson
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    • Total Posts 4491

    Personally I think Bronze Cannon would want a greater test of stamina than 10f around Lingfield. Mr Aviator has little to find at the weights and looks certain to cope with the demands of the course and distance, something you couldn’t be sure of regarding most of his rivals.

    #190510
    halfwaytoheaven
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    • Total Posts 1387

    Am I right in thinking Baharah has been declared for this too?

    I fancy Baharah for this if that is the case

    #190771
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Personally I think Bronze Cannon would want a greater test of stamina than 10f around Lingfield.

    On breeding I would agree with you DJ, but there’s plenty in his form to suggest otherwise. Also Interesting that JG has kept a horse of his calibre in training through the close season, when most of the worthwhile prizes are actually run over this c/d

    #190919
    Colin Little
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    • Total Posts 338

    Final declarations, draw in brackets

    1 (2) AJHAR 4 9-2 R Hills
    2 (9) GRAND PASSION 8 9-2 S Drowne
    3 (11) MR AVIATOR 4 9-2 R Hughes
    4 (5) ORCHARD SUPREME 5 9-2 R Moore
    5 (8) PHILATELIST 4 9-2 N Callan
    6 (6) RE BAROLO 5 9-2t J Quinn
    7 (10) SCAMPERDALE 6 9-2 T Queally
    8 (1) BAHARAH 4 8-13 H Turner
    9 (4) BRONZE CANNON 3 8-12 J Fortune
    10 (3) YAHRAB 3 8-12 J Spencer
    11 (7) HARVEST QUEEN 5 8-11 E Ahern

    #190986
    Avatar photoMDeering
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    • Total Posts 1688

    Bronze Cannon might be working up to the Winter Derby. The long stint after the King Edward VII leads me to believe he will follow a polytrack campaign throughout this season.

    Nonetheless, he is very smart and boasts a pedigree which will appreciate the surface, like it did in his first outings to a racetrack.

    I suspect draws play a serious role when racing on polytrack is usually on an American-style oval shape?

    #190990
    halfwaytoheaven
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    • Total Posts 1387

    I wonder whether a trip abroad is on the cards for Bronze Cannon…Seems such a waste to keep him on a polytrack campaign over here :(

    Baharah has a great draw IMO and with Hayley Turner on board i’m still confident :lol:

    #190999
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Bronze Cannon might be working up to the Winter Derby. The long stint after the King Edward VII leads me to believe he will follow a polytrack campaign throughout this season.

    Nonetheless, he is very smart and boasts a pedigree which will appreciate the surface, like it did in his first outings to a racetrack.

    I suspect draws play a serious role when racing on polytrack is usually on an American-style oval shape?

    MD

    Assume nothing conventional about Lingfield:
    http://www.racingpost.co.uk/images/course_maps/w_lingfieldaw.jpg

    #191010
    Avatar photoMDeering
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    • Total Posts 1688

    Wowza – for the Winter Derby and this race tomorrow, that’s technically run over what, 3-5 turns?

    I’d like to hug the rail, please.

    #191013
    Anonymous
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    • Total Posts 17716

    Yahrab, whilst looking to have the run of the race when beating Eddie Jock last time, appeared to relish setting his own pace and is perfectly drawn in stall three to adopt similar tactics. The time he recorded at Great Leighs wasn’t at all bad and, with his stamina assured, he could just slip the field at the turn.

    He’ll do for me.

    #191024
    Colin Little
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    • Total Posts 338

    Wowza – for the Winter Derby and this race tomorrow, that’s technically run over what, 3-5 turns? I’d like to hug the rail, please.

    There are three quite severe turns. You wouldn’t want to be running around those three wide in a competitive race. So it’s ideally close to rail, but they do tend to fan out & run a bit wide up the home straight.

    I think that RP course map of Lingfield may be a little wrong. I’m sure the 1m2f start is further down the home straight that it suggests.

    #191026
    Colin Little
    Member
    • Total Posts 338

    I think this looks a very competitve & open race.

    There are a lot of hold up horses in here, but there are one or two possibilities of some pace. I was thinking the same as Equitrack, that Yahrab may try & go from the front, but seeing J.Spencer booked, I’m not so sure now. I am sure a slow tactical race would not suit the likes of Ajhar and Bronze Cannon, so you would think they may be prominent. I was thinking it may be Ajhar, he has the draw & the right jockey to try to do this from the front, I could visualise him attempting to wind this up from a long way out. I’ve got mixed feelings about Ajhar, my instincts say this will still be too sharp for him, but he showed a real liking for Kempton, & broke the 1m3f track record there. I know that may not sound great, but it was ½ second faster than Philantalist & Mr Aviator ran in the competitive Rosebery there, & Ajhar was carring 8lb more.

    The likes of Grand Passion, Mr Aviator, Harvest Queen & maybe Philantalist are just going to have to drop in from wide and take their chances from the back. I’m not sure what to make of Baharah being drawn in stall 1. It sounds a good draw, but she’s going to need to get out pretty quick to avoid ending up in quite a bad position.

    Only hope there is some pace here, otherwise litereally anything could win.

    #191037
    davidjohnson
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    • Total Posts 4491

    Don’t think stall one is a positive for Baharah. She’ll be dropped right out, particularly as she’s up in trip and I think there’s a chance she could meet all the trouble in the world from that draw.

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