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Christy 1965 Chase:
This race for me is all about pace. There’s so many front/prominent runners. Top Gamble can front run, but often held up of late with success. Tactics which should suit here. Bit of a worry hasn’t always been ready first time out, but there’s been money today for him which is a good sign. Consistently placed in Grade 1 company and receives weight from all bar one here.
Top Notch can also race prominently, but also effective held up; as he showed in winning a Graduation chase here last December and the Scilly Isles at Sandown. Ran well enough, probably needed it when last of three to Unowhatimeanharry on reappearance.
Smad Place won the Old Roan by 3/4 length from Cloudy Dreams on reappearance and stable in good form. On form this old grey has just as good a chance as Top Notch. But imo his best form is when able to race prominently… Josses Hill‘s jumping confidence may be best fresh and best from the front, I may have backed him tomorrow had there not been more front runners. Flying Angel is more consistent when racing prominently than his overall form suggests. But will this race provide that? Double Shuffle seems to do nothing else but track pace, good jumper but can he jump as well from further back? Royal Regatta is another who seemingly needs to lead. Ascot specialist, however, lost his form last season and no better reappearance. Frodon has made the running more times than not of late, but showed in the Caspian Caviar doesn’t need to. Expect him to be held up this time. Eight lengths second to Might Bite last time isn’t bad but needs to improve to win this. Sizing Granite is often held up, but even his best recent effort was when racing nearer the front.
Not all horses in the above paragraph will be able to race at or near the front and there’s a good chance of a pace burn out and/or horses racing in positions they don’t like/don’t run well doing. So individually there’s a bigger chance they’ll run below their best. I’ve backed two I expect to be held up.
Top Notch 100/30
Top Gamble 7/1Value Is EverythingI worry that the pace war will put too much pressure on little Top Notch’s jumping. I love the horse but was really disappointed with him at Aintree – strongly fancied him to beat Unowhatimeanharry with so much in his favour but he was abysmal. Granted, he can improve for a run but he’ll need to step forward big time.
I like the shout with Top Gamble, who isn’t as one-dimensional as some people think. It would be a timely flick of the Vs from Kerry Lee to her doubters too. Have had a small win bet.
I’ll also probably back Double Shuffle each-way on the potential pace meltdown angle – could suit him to creep around midfield and pick off the scraps here. He ran really well despite market weakness on reappearance.
I have backed two in this JOSSIES HILL on the premis that he seems to go well fresh and if and it is a big if he puts a good round of jumping in he will go close.
And Frodon who could be the fly in the ointment!! 10/1 and 11/1 each way a quarter will do me!!
I was really happy with the run of Frodon last time behind Might Bite, and that’s enough for me to have a few quid on the nose at 12’s, quite keen on him in this.
Josses Hill is really interesting in this. Going right-handed his form figures are: 2-2-F-1-1-1-5-3
The 5th was the King George.
I will be dutching him with Flying Angel. The NTD runner is in a bit in and out in terms of his form, but at his best he’s very, very good. If he leaves his reappearance behind him, his best would give him a chance – and he’s only six, so should even have improvement in him.
Them running against the field at 9/2 will do me.
Josses Hill is very smart when on song. Henderson says in the Post that he always needs his first run of the season; another misleading statement (he just doesn’t engage his brain at times, I think). In fact JH has been beaten just once on seasonal debut when completing, when he was 2nd to Ptit Zig.
But Royal Regatta is a different animal here. He’s 9-years-old and the top 6 RPRs of his career have come at Ascot. He’s marginally the choice for me over JH.
Good luck.
I’ve used the black friday ad with Betfair to back Top Notch here at 7/2 here. I can forgive his run at Aintree, which basically became a sprint in the final furlongs. Overall he was very strong over the fences last season, especially in the JLT.
Josses Hill is very smart when on song. Henderson says in the Post that he always needs his first run of the season; another misleading statement (he just doesn’t engage his brain at times, I think). In fact JH has been beaten just once on seasonal debut when completing, when he was 2nd to Ptit Zig.
But Royal Regatta is a different animal here. He’s 9-years-old and the top 6 RPRs of his career have come at Ascot. He’s marginally the choice for me over JH.
Good luck.
Don’t think Henderson does it deliberately (not saying you do, Joe) but I agree he’s often misleading with quotes. Seems as though whenever his horse is not favourite he’s looking for pre-race excuses. Just another reason not to listen to the trainer. Suspect he employs an expert to advise him and doesn’t know form that well.
Can understand your thinking on this race.
Being fresh is certainly no problem for Josses Hill and goes well right handed. But I do wonder whether he’s best leading or at least away from other horses. Nicky trying to put punters off might be because he’s thinking of employing different to his usual tactics (dropping out or racing wide – away from other horses -in order to jump better). Because there are plenty of front running rivals, including Royal Regatta who is an Ascot specialist. However, have noticed although the Hobbs horse is a good jumper when making the running, usually falls to pieces when unable to lead. Significant chance he’ll either not be able to lead or forced to go to fast for his own good in order to lead.
Value Is EverythingThanks Joe, although they didn’t go anywhere near as fast as I expected. Royal Regatta chucked his toys out of the pram early, dropping back to last place. Then when pace only slow he came through and ran with enthusiasm for a while… until passed. Just did not want to know after that and is much better than distances beaten. Keep the faith Joe, at least in a race he can dictate – when in front he’s as genuine as they come, squiggle horse once headed. Surprised Josses Hill wasn’t taken wide and/or taken up to lead once the pace was slow. Understandably they made the decision to hold Frodon up, which in the circumstances backfired – better than his position. Smad Place led but seemed to lose jumping confidence when Royal Regatta came by. Top Gamble didn’t figure and easy to back – as his form suggests – needed his first run.
Didn’t expect Top Notch to win like that!
May not be quite as good a performance as distances suggest, but Top Notch deserves another chance in Grade 1 company. 
Value Is EverythingTop Notch deserves another chance in Grade 1 company
His proximity to Yorkhill at Cheltenham would have pointed you to that
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Well played GT, I was more than happy to be against him today, and didn’t think he had a performance like that in him, he really won that well.
Top Notch deserves another chance in Grade 1 company
His proximity to Yorkhill at Cheltenham would have pointed you to that
No it doesn’t, Nathan. There’s a difference between Grade 1 Novice form and open Grade 1 company such as the King George. Needs to be at least a stone better than he showed at Cheltenham to win the Kempton showpiece. Today’s performance strongly suggests he’s made some progress towards that level.
Value Is EverythingThe difference between foresight and hindsight
Eh?
Nothing to do with either.
Value Is Everything
May not be quite as good a performance as distances suggest, but Top Notch deserves another chance in Grade 1 company. 
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