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Yes, I think he is a very similar type to Gleneagles, same breeding, and I can see him following the same route – Tyros, Futurity, National Stakes. Caravaggio is going the Phoenix Stakes route, maybe Dewhurst if it looks like a step up to 7f is within his compass.
Ok – may I ask why would it be better if people had a little reality check? Does THAT matter to you?
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Sunspangled – good point about the Coolmore mares. I would say that Juddmonte have some pretty good ones too though and, as you say he has been sent some very good ones from outside Juddmonte. As for the second and third books, well he foaled 112 in year 2 compared to 125 in year 1 so not a huge difference and I doubt what breeders have seen so far on the racetrack will put them off next year. I agree with you that he should probably be a better sire of 2 year olds than his dear old dad. We’ll see how he goes with that. Very early days and too early to be writing him off based on 2 races where his horses actually ran very well.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Just as an afterthought if you get a chance to watch the race again have a look at the fourth Mr Scaramanga. Ran on really well without being knocked about too much. Promising.
Yes, I think he is a very similar type to Gleneagles, same breeding, and I can see him following the same route – Tyros, Futurity, National Stakes. Caravaggio is going the Phoenix Stakes route, maybe Dewhurst if it looks like a step up to 7f is within his compass.
Many thanks. 12/1 seems big.
Personally I don’t see Churchill as a guineas winner but given my judgement lately anything is possible.
Surely they have much better two year olds at home.
Personally I don’t see Churchill as a guineas winner but given my judgement lately anything is possible.
Surely they have much better two year olds at home.
RP reported Churchill had been mentioned by AOB as his best bet of the meeting. Moore was unusually complimentary too, though perhaps he’s now being primed by Coolmore. The last time I recall Moore being that enthusiastic was over Minding last year, which prompted me to have an ante post bet for Gns and The Oaks.
The reason I asked Sunspangled was that perhaps they see Churchill more as a Derby horse (Caravaggio is half his price for the Gns)
Personally I don’t see Churchill as a guineas winner but given my judgement lately anything is possible.
Surely they have much better two year olds at home.
RP reported Churchill had been mentioned by AOB as his best bet of the meeting. Moore was unusually complimentary too, though perhaps he’s now being primed by Coolmore. The last time I recall Moore being that enthusiastic was over Minding last year, which prompted me to have an ante post bet for Gns and The Oaks.
The reason I asked Sunspangled was that perhaps they see Churchill more as a Derby horse (Caravaggio is half his price for the Gns)
True but he just didn’t blow me away to the extent that 12-1 is value at this point. The second Isomer was pressing him strongly to the line, and the second fav Cunco (btw what a horrible name!) blew his chance before the start.
On the plus side for him he looks an uncomplicated and solid type of galloper rather in the mould of gleneagles. I think in a weak guineas he’d have a squeak. I’d prefer him to Carvaggio though, as he truly is a daft price. Won’t get home in a horsebox.
Don’t think we’ve seen next years guineas winner out yet.
Churchill is a promising colt but I feel some people are getting carried away.
The Chesham is a poor guide for Guineas horses and it’s not like Churchill dismantled his field in the manner that the the weight of money suggested that he would.
I gave Churchill a wee bit of the benefit of the doubt yesterday and pencilled him in at 103, which is a lot higher than his debut rating of 80 from the Racing Post.
The Racing Post have rated Churchill 100 for winning the Chesham. Coventry winner Caravaggio is well ahead of that on 115 and I felt he put in a monster performance in comparison to Churchill.
Interestingly Aidan O’Brien seems fairly confident that Caravaggio will stay a mile next year.
I feel the Guineas market is all over the place in having the 1-2-3 from the Chesham so prominent in the betting. Also, I never thought I would see the day when the first three from the Chesham were filling places 1-2-3 in the betting for the following year’s Derby. That looks like utter cobblers to me and suicide alley for punters.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Totally agree Steve, the chesham is historically a weak guide for the guineas.
Ballydoyle ran in it last year and finished 2nd in this years 1000, Maybe was winter fav for her 1000 but couldn’t get it done.
No Chesham winner however has ever gone close to winning the 2000. There’s a first for everything though!
Take your point Joe about the positive comments though I wonder how long it is before they start coming out with “the best I’ve ever trained” and “He does things at home you wouldn’t believe”
Presumably after he wins his next race.
Well, you guys know much more about the Flat than I do. I’ve had a wee bit at 12s anyway, more because of what Moore said (anytime he says more than six words I tend to pay attention).
Ryan Moore was not overly concerned about Churchill’s antics late on and after the line and is confident the Aidan O’Brien-trained colt is an exciting prospect for the future.
“He’s a big powerful horse, a beautiful horse,” Moore said. “He travelled very smoothly to get there he was just very green. He’s a high quality two-year-old.
“The whole time he was going there he was always just waiting, he’s a bit of a baby but he’s one to look forward to.”
Am on CHURCHILL for 2000 guineas at 16s while fact he hung all over place only 2nd start be more to come at this moment CARRVAGGIO has better form but as season goes on i expect CHURCHILL to improve past him
Am on CHURCHILL for 2000 guineas at 16s while fact he hung all over place only 2nd start be more to come at this moment CARRVAGGIO has better form but as season goes on i expect CHURCHILL to improve past him
Maybe Churchill will be the better horse next year but Caravaggio hasn’t even had a true test yet and I think he would have demolished that Chesham field. I can’t believe Isomer is 25/1 for the 2000 Guineas, he’s still a maiden for now and we have several more months of 2yo horses likely to be appearing.
Aidan had Air Force Blue last year and a good number of Derby contenders, but it was the horse who hadn’t even run last year that was his best Derby runner and another unraced colt last season, The Gurkha, seems like his best miler by some way this year.
Very early days for a race so far away next May.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I would just like to add that I do it all out of intense excitement and positivity about a horse that I loved because he was trained by a trainer that I loved who was a genius in a sport that I love. If I sound too arrogant or over-the-top at times, I apologise.
No need to apologise at all Joni. Your posts come across to me as someone who is very enthusiastic about the sport and Frankel and his offspring and if you cant share that on here where the bloody hell can you.
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