Chesham stakes

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Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 49 total)
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  • #1252373
    Jonibake
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    • Total Posts 4141

    Why do you say “hopefully” Stilvi? Do you want him to fail? I know there is hype (or excitement I prefer to call it) but it is understandable surely? I mean YOU backed Queen Kindly even though she only won a little maiden at Catterick so you must be buying it a little yourself no?

    "this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

    #1252384
    Sunspangled
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    • Total Posts 470

    Zoffany has four 3yo stakes winners, he’s not doing too badly with a very moderate first book of mares. And contrary to Frankel, his books will improve (have already improved), his results should get better with better books. Based on his first book of mares, Frankel’s 2yo results should equal, surpass even, Galileo’s. Indeed, on pedigree and having raced predominantly as a miler, Frankel should be a better sire of 2yos than Galileo.

    #1252387
    stilvi
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    • Total Posts 4525

    Personally, it will have no effect on me if he succeeds or fails. I just believe it would be better if people had a little reality check and if a few defeats is the only way that is going to happen then so be it.

    I like to think I judge all horses on their merits, or at least try to. Bletchley was my number one hope and I added Queen Kindly as back-up on the day. Both impressed on debut and it didn’t particularly matter to me that Queen Kindly had won at Catterick. If anything I was more taken by her dam than sire.

    #1252396
    Sunspangled
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    • Total Posts 470

    I think Frankel’s main disadvantage is that he won’t have the support of Coolmore. They will send unproven/weaker mares to him, and sell off the progeny/mares in foal and make lots of money from him, but they won’t send their best mares to him, not when Australia is the heir apparent. It’s no coincidence that Coolmore have stood the leading sire for 26 years or more. Not only do they have a great band of broodmares (getting stronger all the time), but they know how to manage a stallion. I also don’t think it’s a coincidence that they sent Churchill to take on the two Frankels, they’ve never sent a top colt to the Chesham before.

    #1252397
    steeplechasingsteeplechasing
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    • Total Posts 5736

    Sunspangled, would they be likely to to send Churchill for the Guineas?

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #1252399
    Sunspangled
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    • Total Posts 470

    Yes, I think he is a very similar type to Gleneagles, same breeding, and I can see him following the same route – Tyros, Futurity, National Stakes. Caravaggio is going the Phoenix Stakes route, maybe Dewhurst if it looks like a step up to 7f is within his compass.

    #1252412
    Jonibake
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    • Total Posts 4141

    Ok – may I ask why would it be better if people had a little reality check? Does THAT matter to you?

    "this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

    #1252414
    Jonibake
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    Sunspangled – good point about the Coolmore mares. I would say that Juddmonte have some pretty good ones too though and, as you say he has been sent some very good ones from outside Juddmonte. As for the second and third books, well he foaled 112 in year 2 compared to 125 in year 1 so not a huge difference and I doubt what breeders have seen so far on the racetrack will put them off next year. I agree with you that he should probably be a better sire of 2 year olds than his dear old dad. We’ll see how he goes with that. Very early days and too early to be writing him off based on 2 races where his horses actually ran very well.

    "this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

    #1252437
    raymo61raymo61
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    • Total Posts 4565

    Just as an afterthought if you get a chance to watch the race again have a look at the fourth Mr Scaramanga. Ran on really well without being knocked about too much. Promising.

    #1252441
    steeplechasingsteeplechasing
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    • Total Posts 5736

    Yes, I think he is a very similar type to Gleneagles, same breeding, and I can see him following the same route – Tyros, Futurity, National Stakes. Caravaggio is going the Phoenix Stakes route, maybe Dewhurst if it looks like a step up to 7f is within his compass.

    Many thanks. 12/1 seems big.

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #1252442
    thejudge1thejudge1
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    • Total Posts 2254

    Personally I don’t see Churchill as a guineas winner but given my judgement lately anything is possible.

    Surely they have much better two year olds at home.

    #1252446
    steeplechasingsteeplechasing
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    • Total Posts 5736

    Personally I don’t see Churchill as a guineas winner but given my judgement lately anything is possible.

    Surely they have much better two year olds at home.

    RP reported Churchill had been mentioned by AOB as his best bet of the meeting. Moore was unusually complimentary too, though perhaps he’s now being primed by Coolmore. The last time I recall Moore being that enthusiastic was over Minding last year, which prompted me to have an ante post bet for Gns and The Oaks.

    The reason I asked Sunspangled was that perhaps they see Churchill more as a Derby horse (Caravaggio is half his price for the Gns)

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #1252448
    thejudge1thejudge1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2254

    Personally I don’t see Churchill as a guineas winner but given my judgement lately anything is possible.

    Surely they have much better two year olds at home.

    RP reported Churchill had been mentioned by AOB as his best bet of the meeting. Moore was unusually complimentary too, though perhaps he’s now being primed by Coolmore. The last time I recall Moore being that enthusiastic was over Minding last year, which prompted me to have an ante post bet for Gns and The Oaks.

    The reason I asked Sunspangled was that perhaps they see Churchill more as a Derby horse (Caravaggio is half his price for the Gns)

    True but he just didn’t blow me away to the extent that 12-1 is value at this point. The second Isomer was pressing him strongly to the line, and the second fav Cunco (btw what a horrible name!) blew his chance before the start.

    On the plus side for him he looks an uncomplicated and solid type of galloper rather in the mould of gleneagles. I think in a weak guineas he’d have a squeak. I’d prefer him to Carvaggio though, as he truly is a daft price. Won’t get home in a horsebox.

    Don’t think we’ve seen next years guineas winner out yet.

    #1252449
    stevecautionstevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8280

    Churchill is a promising colt but I feel some people are getting carried away.

    The Chesham is a poor guide for Guineas horses and it’s not like Churchill dismantled his field in the manner that the the weight of money suggested that he would.

    I gave Churchill a wee bit of the benefit of the doubt yesterday and pencilled him in at 103, which is a lot higher than his debut rating of 80 from the Racing Post.

    The Racing Post have rated Churchill 100 for winning the Chesham. Coventry winner Caravaggio is well ahead of that on 115 and I felt he put in a monster performance in comparison to Churchill.

    Interestingly Aidan O’Brien seems fairly confident that Caravaggio will stay a mile next year.

    I feel the Guineas market is all over the place in having the 1-2-3 from the Chesham so prominent in the betting. Also, I never thought I would see the day when the first three from the Chesham were filling places 1-2-3 in the betting for the following year’s Derby. That looks like utter cobblers to me and suicide alley for punters.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1252450
    thejudge1thejudge1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2254

    Totally agree Steve, the chesham is historically a weak guide for the guineas.

    Ballydoyle ran in it last year and finished 2nd in this years 1000, Maybe was winter fav for her 1000 but couldn’t get it done.

    No Chesham winner however has ever gone close to winning the 2000. There’s a first for everything though!

    Take your point Joe about the positive comments though I wonder how long it is before they start coming out with “the best I’ve ever trained” and “He does things at home you wouldn’t believe” ;-)

    Presumably after he wins his next race. :wacko:

Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 49 total)
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