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I read a lot of comments on here like ‘my Champion Hurdle book is looking good at the moment’ etc…
Obviously, this is through exchange betting, I get that much.
But is it just a case of backing a horse in said race and then laying it for profit beforehand when/if the price plummits? Or do you let the horse/s run at the price backed?
I’m interested to know about this, as may be the way I go next year. Rather than backing via the bookmakers, who limit my accounts just because I try and beat SP!
I should of cashed out.
A book dosent have to be on the exchanges.
However if you want to lay some of your stake off, unless you have a huge bank then you would need to back on there.
A good book is just multiple horses in one race at much bigger prices when you backed them to what they are now.
I personally don’t lay anything off and let them run if they make it there, but each to there own, as many a time I’v been in a great position to lay off and decided to let it run, and the horse has got injured. However if you have a book on that race, then you usually have the ones that replace it as fav covered already.
If your in a position where you have a good book. Some people decide to green up by backing the rest of the horses declared for that race so whatever happens they win, or lay off a percentage of the horse they’ve backed so they cover there stake. And have a free bet.
That’s how I interpret it anyway.
Rocky is correct.
You can back high, lay low. You don’t even have to lay if you don’t want to.
3 examples;
My Champion Hurdle ‘book’
This doesn’t take into account my EW on MTOY at 50/1 + the multiples that go with it. I would hazard a guess at being about £150 into MTOY at 50/1. But on the exchanges, everything is rosy.
Now, I could lay both Buveur D’Air and Yorkhill to ‘green up’ on everything, meaning that no matter who wins, I will still win practically the same amount £x.
My Stayers’ Hurdle ‘book’;
This is a much better book and doesn’t show a couple of other horses I’ve backed (West Approach and Supasundae).
The only other bet I’ve got is £40 Ballyoptic 20/1 from October. If I had £560 I could keep in the exchanges for 2 months, I could have laid Ballyoptic at 15.0 a month ago for £40 and insured either a potential £240 profit for no risk (backed at 20/1, laid at 14/1) or just ‘greened up’ with that £240. So £240 divided by 14 is about £17, so I could have used my back at 20/1 to ensure a £17 profit on any runner.
So the above 2 markets are showing £0 risk.
Here’s one that I still have risk in, for a good reason.
My Supreme book;
Ignore the sets of numbers on the right, just look at the left. Currently I have £44 liability in this market on Betfair (£64 liability factoring in everything, plus a few Capitaine multiples, so probably about £100-120 total).
The reason I’m showing -£44 is because I don’t want to ‘green up’ or hedge my bets right now because everything I’ve backed in this market is trading at big prices. I could lay Consul De Thaix at 23/1 to get back that £44, but it would cost me a potential £1k win on Consul De Thaix right now (this transaction is represented by the numbers on the right). I’d rather wait and see what happens to Consul De Thaix at Newbury. If he wins, I’d expect him to go around 6/1 for this race. At that point I would lay somebody £44 at 6/1. That would make my Supreme book (on Betfair) have £0 risk and I’d still stand to win well over £3k on CDT, as well as big wins on a couple of other runners (Mount Mews, Capitaine + Glaring).
Some lovely books their Zark!
All the best with consul de thaix.
The bet fair is ultra competitive this year I feel but CDT I believe will be in the first 3 which should reduce its price I reckon.
CDT is one of few in the supreme with very little question marks.
He proven to be a top end handicapper and plenty have gone on to run well in the supreme.Got it!
Thanks for taking the time to explain that to me (both of you).
Looks a decent way of enjoying the four days, pretty much risk free. Guess you just need to spot the openings before someone else does.
I could lay a fair few of my bets off at the moment it seems to have a risk free ‘book’, but not having the equity in the exchange account is the issue this year. Next year I think I will base a high proportion of them with the exchange. This year I will have to let them all ride….and hope!
I should of cashed out.
I moved a little bit too early with my original £40, which I staked at 65-70. I had him added to the market by Betfair and kept seeing him drift. I was more than happy with 65 so I moved in then, but he then went out to 120 odd, so kept adding more. Bit frustrating that I was the one to have him added to the market but failed to get the very best prices, but hey ho.
Anyway I’m no more than hopeful at this stage. The Betfair Hurdle looks a competitive little race and CdT needs to prove he can get his head in front. We can start to dream a little if he wins that.
Some lovely books their Zark!
Thanks, a couple of them are not so pretty though! There’s a reason I didn’t show either my Neptune or JLT books! #redredred
Looks a decent way of enjoying the four days, pretty much risk free. Guess you just need to spot the openings before someone else does.
Sometimes it’s difficult but sometimes it’s just plain easy. I moved in on Consul De Thaix the other day because he was trading around 55-70. I had roughly £14 on.
Obviously in the days leading up to Consul De Thaix running in the Betfair, people were going to back him for the Supreme.
So immediately after putting that £14 on, I instantly set up a lay at 26 to win that £14 back and a little extra. It meant that I was able to simultaneously reduce my risk in this market and increase my potential win on CDT.
The lay matched a day later.
Easy.
The rest of my book. Also have £10 Jenkins 25/1 and £10 Capitaine 33/1.
Nice position to be in on CDT Zark, and I hope The Betfair setback today is not the result of a more serious issue. It’s a sickening feeling when that happens, and one I’ve experienced many time. As I said on the “Cheltenham Bets” thread, I refer to it as being “Katenkoed”
Innoko, I always lay my horses now, and it’s all about hopefully getting a free bet on the ones I actually fancy, via the other selections.
I’ve been stung too many times by letting the bets run. My biggest winner ever was on Rock on Ruby at odds of up to 200’s for The 2012 Champion Hurdle, but had laid off about 25% of my pot on him over the season to get a green book. When he crossed the line I went mental, and did I worry about what I had laid off……………it never even crossed my mind. Laying off is a “no brainer” to me.
For every story like the ROR one above, there are horror stories aplenty. You’ll see I used the phrase “Katenkoed” in my previous post. 2013 Gold Cup, I have Katenko to win 32k at odds (roughly) 300’s to 500’s. It’s quite clear less than a fortnight before the race, that he’s a major player, his odds are tumbling, and he’s around 14’s to 18’s on the exchanges. In other words, I can lay off £1000 at 14’s, make a handsome profit on the race, and still have a hefty chunk left on the horse. Did I lay off? No I didn’t, and I woke up to the news he had Colic, and was out. I’d have been as well throwing 1k down the drain. I also had £18 on Sunnyhill Boy at 1000’s left on the exchange for the same race, and I considered laying him (at around 22’s to 30’s) in the run up, but after the Katenko horrors, I decided to be bold and let it ride. What else could go wrong? Well some murky shenanigans seen Sunnyhill Boy get a mystery “injury”, and he missed the race. I was absolutely gutted, but if I had laid off, there would have been the consolation of the whole saga having made me a profit, or at the very least, having not cost me anything. So in my opinion, after that ordeal, is………………lay, lay, lay.
I take it this is the first time you’ve considered it? If you are planning on multiple horses in that book (besides the ones you fancy) be very, very careful, it’s a minefield, and all that glitters is not gold. Most of the really big priced horses, are that price for a reason, and never ever bet a horse just because it’s a big price, you must have an angle on it.
I hope that doesn’t sound too patronising (I certainly get the impression you’re considering it because of being restricted elsewhere, and know what you’re talking about). If I was starting off again, my first few attempts, or even my first season, would be for very low stakes, just to get the feel of things, and to minimise any setbacks. Trial and Error.
I treat it like a hobby, and really enjoy it, but by god, there have been some dark moments lol.
Good luck mate
Many thanks for this VTC.
Sounds like it can be a roller coaster ride of emotions just to get the horses to even line up.
I’m definitely considering it for next season at low stakes, over the last two weeks I’ve had three accounts restricted. It’s not going to get any better in the future either.
I like the idea of finding the angles to place the bet when the odds are too big, it’s basically what I do now Ante Post but without the option to lay back my stake.
As with most years, I’ve got some good bets and bad ones this year. Happy enough that only 9pts have so far been written off due to N/R. Still a long way to go though!
I should of cashed out.
The one thing I’m learning is that trying to predict what Mullins/RR are likely to do is almost impossible.
Think next year, I will either not touch them at all or back at very big prices hoping for the unexpected to happen.
Hopefully, my first proper ‘book’ next year will be a healthy one…
I should of cashed out.
No harm Innoko, in betting the Mullins/RR ones, but always make sure you lay………..you’ll end up in the funny farm otherwise lol
The one thing I’m learning is that trying to predict what Mullins/RR are likely to do is almost impossible.
“learning” continuous?
should be “The one thing I have learnt”
No harm Innoko, in betting the Mullins/RR ones, but always make sure you lay………..you’ll end up in the funny farm otherwise lol
Excellent advice!
The one thing I’m learning is that trying to predict what Mullins/RR are likely to do is almost impossible.
“learning” continuous?
should be “The one thing I have learnt”
Edit : LEARNT.
I should of cashed out.
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