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Hello all,
I’m new to the site and am just dipping my toes into the murky water that is horse betting! I’m off to Cheltenham on Gold Cup day and wanted some advice from you seasoned pros’!
Following on from the Cheltenham banker thread, would any of you have a good outside bet for the races on the day?
Thanks!
Backing EW in the gold cup may not be advisable.
Kauto Star and Denman are very short and likley to totally outclass all but Exotic Dancer 14/1
If they all make it to the big one 100% fit many of the others may not run. The chances of another horse beating any one of those three, in a 10 runner race e.g., would be very remote.
If it’s a real big price you are looking for the best outside could be Turpin Green 66/1 as he did finish third last year and it extremely unlikely he will miss the race. Sulks a bit but stays forever.
After that Haydock performance, "sulks a bit" doesn’t begin to describe it!
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
After that Haydock performance, "sulks a bit" doesn’t begin to describe it!
gc
You’re right he was aful last time out but he still won.
He finished 2nd in the Peter Marsh and in the Mildmay novice at Aintree, has won 6 races and to top it all he ran out of his skin and finished 3rd in the God Cup finishing within 2 1/2 lengths of Exotic Dancer who’s a 14/1 shot and not certain to make the race if his back injury re-occurs. He has an excellent trainer who will have him as sweet as possible on the day…….slow run race was hardly in his favour last year as he is an out and out stayer.
If you can find a better option at 66/1 be my guest
The 5/1 on offer about Sublimity winning the Champion Hurdle again seems a spiffingly good each way bet to me.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
If you can find a better option at 66/1 be my guest
I won’t find them just for the sake of finding them, Fists – outside of Exotic Dancer and the possible four Nicholls acceptors, I can’t imagine anything else good enough to make the first three home barring carnage.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Ha! Am I bit too quick out of the blocks? Thanks for letting me know, I’ll keep on the site anyhow as it appears to be one of the better ones out there, and bump my post a week or so before the big day.
Thanks again, especially for the Turpin Green. A friend’s Dad had this e/w last year and come away with a tidy profit.
(ps, no relations are B.Dennis… A couple of A, C’s and D’s though!
not very good at backing winners as my form in the competition shows, but I can’t help but think that everyone is so convinced that Paul Nicholls is going to win everything at the festival it could mean that there are going to be quite a few surprises at big prices, if only I knew which they were; however, Turpin Green was very kind to me last year and I shall stick with him ew this time.
I’d want at least 16/1 about the nutty bugger (Turpin Green) even finishing the race, let alone going in each-way at 66/1. Money down the drain if you ask me.
There are worse 16/1 shots than Ashkazar in the Triumph, and much worse 20/1 shots than Aboo Who in the Foxhunters.
Elusive Dream if he runs in the 3 miler on GC day.
His only bad run was on the day where he didn’t like the weather (Greatwood Hurdle day).
much worse 20/1 shots than Aboo Who in the Foxhunters.
Aboo Who and The Man From Slatt both have rotten efforts behind Agus A Vic at Leopardstown most recently to forgive. I’d be a little more confident of the former doing so than the latter – Slatt made all in four points earlier in the winter, winning by an aggregate of 80l, but in none of them was the suspicion of a wind problem that has hung over the horse for more than a year actually tested. I think it probably has since.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Wow just checked the price and you can get 20-1 on My Way De Solzen. That is a cracking e/w bet.
My main banker bet for cheltenham and runs on Gold Cup Day is an e/w bet on a Triumph horse, WON IN THE DARK, I just cant see this horse finishing out of the top 3. Being a montjeu he needs a decent clip, and his form reflects this, he was beaten by franchoek in a slow affair early on in the season and that seems to put most people off him. However, he then came out and won a grade 1 really impressively at leopardstown since then but was beaten a neck since at a slow pace in a grade 2. He’ll get his decent pace in the triumph, he’s tough, nicely actioned, consistent, well bred and has the right blend of speed and stamina required to go well in this race, best of all he’s overpriced at 20-1.
Unless something goes wrong with him, he’ll be in the thick of things, watch this space…
………….are you related to B.Dennis?
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