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Whatever the stats say about Long Runs chances, Nicky Henderson admitted after the Paddy Power the race got him out of his comfort zone. For a horse who he said the season before had pace to burn and could really contest either the Arkle or RSA, I find it hard to believe he can win a championship race round cheltenham when he couldn’t even win a handicap off what effectively was a OR of 153 (taking his claimer into account).
Midnight Chase won a handicap off 155 over something like the Gold Cup trip last time out to put things into perspective.
Long Run needs to improve a hell of a lot to win imo not just this year but for years to come as well. If Big Bucks goes chasing next year it could well be another year he has to wait, not to mention Time for Rupert and Weapons Amnesty and whoever else emerges thereafter.
He might turn out to be every bit as good as the hype suggests, but 9/2?…Really? Beating a below par Kauto doesnt make him a world beater, Snoopy Loopy done that once and never won again.I have been rethinking on Kauto. If he hadn’t crashed a fence last year in the GC and he hadn’t been ill this year in the King George he might have won both those races and he would be about 2-1 for this year’s GC. Of course, that didn’t happen but I think there is still a bit of value left in Kauto on the basis that he has about a 50% chance of being a genuine 2-1 shot.
As i have already stated within this thread, i think Denman is the one to beat this season.
I think without the run in the AON chase this season, and that he goes there fresh and in seemingly very good health, i think he will have a great chance. Sam Thomas is going to ride him too, which i think is an excellent aspect.
Denman’s run in the AON chase didn’t help him at all last year, and his performance in the Hennessy this season, was a very good run.
There is one horse that i dont know what to make of in terms of his chances in the Gold Cup this season, and that is Long Run.
His King George win was very impressive, he jumped better than he has done previously, and he won in very good fashion.
However, i keep going back to his run in the Paddy Power. Yes, it was over 2 miles 5, and yes, he was giving a lot of weight away to Little Josh and Dancing Tornado, who finished ahead of him that day.
Im sure the extra distance at Cheltenham in the Gold Cup will help him. It is just a little more difficult to assess how good last season’s Royal Sun Alliance Chase was –
Weapons Amnesty has been out for the season
Burton Port ran a very good race in the Hennessy but has been injured since
Knockara Beau and Punchestowns haven’t been that impressive.I don’t really know what is going on with Alberta’s Run and why he has apparently been switched to the Gold Cup from the Ryanair. However, he hasn’t run very well this year so perhaps he had a problem that has now been resolved. If so then it might be rational to run him in the GC as a genuine contender. On the other hand, maybe the problem is unresolved so he might as well have a run round in the GC rather than the Ryanair.
I sense an opportunity here, but I am not sure what it is. Maybe a contrarian NRNB on the Ryanair.
Seems to me on what they’ve done on track, Denman is a good price @ 13/2. If I hadn’t already backed Imperial Commander, Denman would be a main bet. 3rd in this season’s Hennessey on form wasn’t far off (if at all) behind the winning performances. So unlike stable companion Kauto Star, has run well this term.
However, Denman is getting older (now 11) and it is possible he’s deterioratad since Newbury. And why operate if he had not shown a deterioration at home?Value Is EverythingAs i have already stated within this thread, i think Denman is the one to beat this season.
However, i keep going back to his run in the Paddy Power. Yes, it was over 2 miles 5, and yes, he was giving a lot of weight away to Little Josh and Dancing Tornado, who finished ahead of him that day.
Taking into account the claims both horses were recieving that day, Long Run was only giving Little Josh 8lbs, which in all honesty should have been with a Gold Cup winners compass, especially one who was thought of as an Arkle maybe the year before.
Does anyone think Imperial Commander would have been beaten in that race under the same conditions? If not, and if you can find a match bet between him and Long Run, that just might be the best bet of the whole festival!Just interested to know why Denman backers think he can reverse the form of last years race with IC?
Just interested to know why Denman backers think he can reverse the form of last years race with IC?
Because he goes there fresh this year, and didnt have to run in the AON chase which did him no good at all last season.
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looks like i will be backing kempes in the gold cup as i think he is unexposed and has come to hand at the right time. if you were to go on the stopwatch you would see he has a lot in hand of denman, kauto star and long run, only diamond harry would of given him a beating but now he is injured my money will be on kempes
looks like i will be backing kempes in the gold cup as i think he is unexposed and has come to hand at the right time. if you were to go on the stopwatch you would see he has a lot in hand of denman, kauto star and long run, only diamond harry would of given him a beating but now he is injured my money will be on kempes
I didn’t think Kempes was directly comparable with the others – what stopwatch are you referring to?
As i have already stated within this thread, i think Denman is the one to beat this season.
I think without the run in the AON chase this season, and that he goes there fresh and in seemingly very good health, i think he will have a great chance. Sam Thomas is going to ride him too, which i think is an excellent aspect.
Denman’s run in the AON chase didn’t help him at all last year, and his performance in the Hennessy this season, was a very good run.
There is one horse that i dont know what to make of in terms of his chances in the Gold Cup this season, and that is Long Run.
His King George win was very impressive, he jumped better than he has done previously, and he won in very good fashion.
However, i keep going back to his run in the Paddy Power. Yes, it was over 2 miles 5, and yes, he was giving a lot of weight away to Little Josh and Dancing Tornado, who finished ahead of him that day.
Im sure the extra distance at Cheltenham in the Gold Cup will help him. It is just a little more difficult to assess how good last season’s Royal Sun Alliance Chase was –
Weapons Amnesty has been out for the season
Burton Port ran a very good race in the Hennessy but has been injured since
Knockara Beau and Punchestowns haven’t been that impressive.Couldnt agree more about Denman. His run in the Hennessy was out of the top drawer in what was probably the most informative as well as the most competitive race in the stayers genre. Nicholls has said everything has gone exactly right with Denman since his soft palate op (makes the Hennessy run even better). You have to respect Imperial Commander too as last years winner and Kauto might well have a say too but its Denman for me.
Kauto Star has come in for some strong support recently.
Sure to have plenty of public support between now and Cheltenham and the kind of horse that punters will turn to in their hour of need if they’re losing come Friday.
Could he actually start favourite? Hard to believe that he was 12/1 after the King George, not even eight weeks ago.
I backed Denman at 10/1 prior to his Hennessy effort, also Diamond Harry at the same price. Shame that ones missing.
May have a few quid on Tidal Bay ew. Love the horse, but prefer to just watch than have any money on him. Did anyone read the Racing Post article featuring Brian Hughes this week? Intriguing insight into the mind of the horse.
I remember reading another article that said he loves nothing more than dragging his stable lass around the box. He doesn’t take too kindly to being bullied in his races – the kind of horse that responds by saying ‘Oh yeah, you fancy some of this?’
A wonderful character – a right arrogant bully – who has probably usurped Challenger Du Luc as the most talented top class underachiever, in my opinion.
Pandorama (best Irish form), Long Run & Imperial Commander(best British form …have it between them in my view.
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hi shabby – if you look at kempes form and pandorama then there isnt much between the two of them- kempes scored over the same track and distance on the same ground in a bit better time? they both have cracking chances in the gold cup.
I have to take issue with Bosranic who says Long Run is no Kauto Star.
I can only say that if Long Run simply makes normal improvement then he has every chance to become the first horse since Arkle to achieve a rating of 200 or more.
He will actually still be technically only 5 when he runs in this years Gold Cup (born April 05) and needs to improve 21 pounds which is not unrealistic.Let’s make some comparisons of what they have both achieved at Long Run’s age when he won the King George at age 5 years 9 months.
OFFICIAL RATINGS: KAUTO STAR `167
LONG RUN 179PRIZE MONEY WON: KAUTO STAR £265,000
LONG RUN £825,000RACES WON: KAUTO STAR: 6
LONG RUN 11GRADE 1 RACES WON: KAUTO STAR 1
LONG RUN 4NUMBER OF RACES BEATEN IN: KAUTO STAR 8
LONG RUN 6WIN TO RUN RATIO: KAUTO STAR 6 FROM 14 = 43%
LONG RUN 11 FROM 17 = 65%NUMBER OF FALLS KAUTO STAR 2
LONG RUN 0So come on Bosranic, justify your remark, I challenge you to tell me of any NH Horse in history who has achieved more at Long Runs current age (5)
If Kauto does take the prize on the 18th there wont be a bigger cheer at Cheltenham this year id say
Obvious similarities can be drawn between Long run and Kauto Star, judging on what the’ve both done around Kempton. The thing is Kauto Star has looked just as good around Cheltenham on more than one occasion whereas Long Run (as of yet) simply hasn’t. KS is still at the grand old age of 11, mixing it with the best in the business.
The only way Long Run will ever compare to Kauto imo, is if he can sustain true championship form for as many years to come and on a variety of tracks. Never mind ratings, the hanicapper decides these, and anyway I believe the handicapper was slightly harsh not to break into that magical 200 mark after his 2009 King George success, watch the video again. Now that is a good a performance as there has ever been on a racecourse to my mind. If anyone can show me a better one I’d love to see it.
I hope Long Run turns out to be as good if not better than the great Kauto because if he does we’re in for a special few years but all we really know is he’s the best around Kempton Park at this moment in time.
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