Cheltenham 2017 – the bad each way angle

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Viewing 11 posts - 16 through 26 (of 26 total)
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  • #1291264
    LostSoldier3
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 1894

    I jest RacingLife and I suppose I see your point about fighting one wrong with another.

    You can’t blame us for taking a dim view of bad e/w punters though. It’s not really in the business model to lay bets that are guaranteed to be profitable long-term.

    #1291278
    RacingLife
    Participant
    • Total Posts 86

    LostSoldier, of course – and I think that the EW system is outdated really at this stage… for some races the place odds suit the punters (i.e. bad ew races) and for other / most races they suit the bookmaker – I tend to only bet each way when there are 8/9 runners or there are 16 and I’m getting four places 1/4..

    I guess in an ideal world there would be separate win and place markets only and this would be more efficient for punter and bookmaker (i.e. do away with each way betting) but I would be totally against this as I like nicking a few shillings when I can

    #1291279
    RacingLife
    Participant
    • Total Posts 86

    Thanks for that, Racing Life. The place opportunities in the Arkle and Queen Mother are interesting. I’ve added the following to my portfolio on the back of your advice.

    Bet 1
    Royal Caviar – 14/1
    Gods Own – 12/1
    Clondaw Warrior without Harry – 7/1

    Fiver each way treble pays 150 if they all place

    Bet 2
    Royal Caviar – 14/1
    Gods Own – 12/1
    Petit Mouchoir – 7/1
    Alpha Des Obeaux – 6/1

    Fiver each way pays 355 if they all place :mail: :mail: :mail: :mail:

    Thanks for those picks Vautour, I’m going to have a look now myself – is it a case that the NRNB concessions stop at the 48 hr declaration stage? So I guess I will need to make any ew bets including Arkle selections by tomorrow (48 hours before Tuesday)

    #1291280
    RacingLife
    Participant
    • Total Posts 86

    It is called each way filth for a reason Vautour.

    the reason being the bookies consider it to be a less of a risk to the punter than the odds reflect.

    Yes, It’s not even that it’s less of a risk than the odds reflect – the odds are actually in your favour and quite considerably in some cases.

    The best races I find to do it are usually novice or maiden hurdles when you have 8/9 runners and a very short priced favourite – consider a market like this:

    Horse 1 – 1/2
    Horse 2 – 8/1
    Horse 3 – 12/1
    Horse 4 – 25/1
    Horse 5 – 23/1
    Horse 6 – 33/1
    Horse 7 – 50/1
    Horse 8 – 150/1

    In a lot of these races the horses 25/1+ are just very very bad horses and don’t have any chance of finishing in a place, so a race like this represents a great opportunity for the filthy each way punter like myself –

    If you backed Horse 2 you are getting 8/5 on the place market and with Horse 3 12/5… but it’s very likely that if you check the Exchange ‘to be placed’ market then the odds might be 1.6 and 2.2 – if you can double up or treble up a few of these you could get yourself a bet that pays far greater than it’s true odds should be

    For example – in the Arkle this year you can get 8/1 Charbel.. so the place part of your bet is 8/5 but his odds in the Exchange TBP market are actually 6/4… You do give up some value on the win part of your bet (he’s 15/1 to win the race on Betfair as opposed to 8/1) but the difference in percentage terms of the place market is usually much more than what you lose in the shorter win odds you’re forced to take

    #1291281
    RacingLife
    Participant
    • Total Posts 86

    Be careful with these bets guys!!

    I have had several accounts closed for these type of bets. If the bookies don’t spot them fine but if they analyse your type of bets and spot them your accounts will be closed pretty darned quick!!

    I had two accounts closed last April for three each way doubles and an each way treble all at Aintree
    Shaneshill
    Le Prezien
    The Game Changer

    Filthy each ways they used to be called!! :good:

    Yes be very careful, don’t do them online if you can avoid it… and if you do make sure it’s very rarely and for small stakes

    Your second one would be ok Vautour because the RSA and CH markets are not really bad EW markets… the three on your first bet are and that’s probably the best value one for you but if you aren’t doing these every day of the week on on account then nothing will happen I’m sure.

    The best way to do it is walking into a shop the old fashioned way :good:

    #1291282
    RacingLife
    Participant
    • Total Posts 86

    With Cheltenham it’s even better because if you have a horse done EW now NRNB and the race cuts up to 5 or 6 runners then you still get paid on the first 3 places :yahoo: :yahoo: :yahoo:

    #1291283
    RacingLife
    Participant
    • Total Posts 86

    Thanks for that, Racing Life. The place opportunities in the Arkle and Queen Mother are interesting. I’ve added the following to my portfolio on the back of your advice.

    Bet 1
    Royal Caviar – 14/1
    Gods Own – 12/1
    Clondaw Warrior without Harry – 7/1

    Fiver each way treble pays 150 if they all place

    Bet 2
    Royal Caviar – 14/1
    Gods Own – 12/1
    Petit Mouchoir – 7/1
    Alpha Des Obeaux – 6/1

    Fiver each way pays 355 if they all place :mail: :mail: :mail: :mail:

    Gods Own is a great one Vautour he could end up 1/2 to place on Betfair on the day, depending on the runners and you’ve locked in 12/5 for yourself now.

    What was your thinking on Wicklow Brave?.. I do like the horse but Cole Harden was my pick W/O Harry… I’m starting tom come around to the Wicklow Brave idea though as if Ruby is riding that which I guess he will be it’s bound to be much shorter on the day

    #1291284
    RacingLife
    Participant
    • Total Posts 86

    Thanks for that, Racing Life. The place opportunities in the Arkle and Queen Mother are interesting. I’ve added the following to my portfolio on the back of your advice.

    Bet 1
    Royal Caviar – 14/1
    Gods Own – 12/1
    Clondaw Warrior without Harry – 7/1

    Fiver each way treble pays 150 if they all place

    Bet 2
    Royal Caviar – 14/1
    Gods Own – 12/1
    Petit Mouchoir – 7/1
    Alpha Des Obeaux – 6/1

    Fiver each way pays 355 if they all place :mail: :mail: :mail: :mail:

    Gods Own is a great one Vautour he could end up 1/2 to place on Betfair on the day, depending on the runners and you’ve locked in 12/5 for yourself now.

    What was your thinking on Wicklow Brave?.. I do like the horse but Cole Harden was my pick W/O Harry… I’m starting tom come around to the Wicklow Brave idea though as if Ruby is riding that which I guess he will be it’s bound to be much shorter on the day

    Sorry I mean Clondaw Warrior not Wicklow Brave, I always get those two mixed up

    #1292092
    RacingLife
    Participant
    • Total Posts 86

    Wow what a disaster the Arkle was – Charbels fall took out about 10 different each way bets for me!! Still have a few going with Cloudy Dream and Gods Own / Special Tiara and did get ample compensation with Buveur d’air in the Champion Hurdle but I really don’t think I ever want to watch the 2017 Arkle again!

    I’m looking hard at Cole Harden W/O Youknowwhatimeanharry Each-way at around 5/1 as I think he will have a great chance of finishing second and it’s very hard to see him out of the top 4

    #1292137
    raymo61raymo61
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4581

    I have a good few quid going on to Special Tiara/Simply Ned in the w/o market from Cloudy dream at 5/1 w/o so will be cheering either of the two to finish second to Douvan!!

    Good Luck with Cole Harden RL :good:

    #1293370
    RacingLife
    Participant
    • Total Posts 86

    I have a good few quid going on to Special Tiara/Simply Ned in the w/o market from Cloudy dream at 5/1 w/o so will be cheering either of the two to finish second to Douvan!!

    Good Luck with Cole Harden RL :good:

    Well done Raymo you must have getot a nice return from the Cloudy Dream / Special Tiara w/o double… cracking bet!! I’m sure that I have a slip somewhere with Special Tiara w/o Douvan at 25/1 but I had so many bloody each way slips that don’t know where it is or if the other leg won at all!

    Ended up with a couple of nice ew doubles and trebles on Friday as Paddy Power were paying extra places on a lot of the races… SIX in the County Hurdle, FOUR in the Albert Bartlett and FOUR in the Gold Cup (13 runners) – crazy stuff, I didn’t realise that they did that so often.

    I had Air Horse One 12/1 & Mohayyeed 20/1 in the county in doubles with Monalee 8/1, Constantine Bay 12/1 and with Sizing John 8/1, More of That and Cue Card in the GC – so even though most of those lines went down in the Gold Cup I ended up with a decent profit (would have been much better if Mohayyeed had grabbed 6th in the County instead of 7).

    The extra places really make these races great each way betting opportunities and I don’t think they are as likely to restrict you for betting each way on the big festivals like Cheltenham, different if you’re doing it in Maiden hurdles at Fontwell on a Tuesday!

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