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When the other firms go NRNB margins will slightly improve.
I just went through the entire NRNB list and I’m not sure I saw many prices that won’t be bigger on the day.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Agree on Blue Lord; for stakes management I’ve added him to three singles (12-1, 16-1, 16-1) to give the chance of a bigger return on the off chance that he runs there.
My Antepost so far
The Nice Guy 10/1 and 8/1 (RSA) – LOST
Constitution Hill 5/2 (Champion Hurdle)
Bob Olinger e/w 10/1 (Stayers)
King of Kingsfield e/w 10/1 (Bumper)
Luccia 10/1 (mares novice)More to come next week will be doing the multi bets.
Lucky 31
Third time lucki Grand Annual
Bravemansgame GC
Epatante mares hurdle
Chris Dream Hunter Chase
Flooring Porter Stayers hurdle
William Hill is the first major bookmaker to put up non runner no bet on the 2023 Cheltenham Festival. There is rarely value in such offers, in fact, it’s often better to wait until the day of the race where place terms will be far superior to those available now.
But two horses caught my eye in the Hills pricing: Balco Coastal, and Parmenion in the County Hurdle.
Balco Coastal left a deep impression on me last weekend when winning a novices handicap at Kempton, his second chasing outing. He was off just 133 and, in hindsight, absolutely thrown in. He cruised around on the outside all the way jumping superbly (connections believe he wants a clear view of his fences). He was clever where he had to be, confident, accurate and efficient. He had the tactical speed to do anything Nico asked of him, and the finishing speed to put the race to bed in a matter of strides.
The Henderson horse has gone up to 144 after that and has two possible festival targets: The Craft Irish Whiskey Co Plate he’s 10/1 for that, and the Turners Chase, a Grade 1 Novices Chase, for which he is 20/1. He would be very interesting off 144 in the Plate, but the trainer might want to give him another run for experience. Entry date for the Plate is 21st Feb, and for the Turners, 17th January. If Henderson was confident enough to run him in the Grade 1, then I’d be more than happy with 20/1. I suggest you back Balco Coastal for both races at the prices on offer, knowing you’ll get your money back on the one he skips.
The other that offers value, in theory, is Willie Mullins’s probable for The County Hurdle, Parmenion, who was beaten at 4/5 the other day when 3rd behind High Definition. After the race Mullins said he expected considerable improvement. Parmenion has a very similar profile race-planning wise to State Man, who won the County last year at 11/4 fav, and to Saint Roi, the 2020 County winner and fav at 11/2, both trained by Mullins.
State Man had his first run for Mullins in the same race (fell 2 out) that Parmenion was beaten in, and that too was Parmenion’s first run for the yard. Saint Roi’s stable debut was at Tramore; he too was beaten, but hacked up in the County, just as State Man did (he’s now 2nd fav for the Champion Hurdle). Parmenion belongs to Mrs Donnelly, the owner of State Man.
So, if Parmenion is good enough, he will be there on the day, and probably start fav or close to it If not, you get your money back. Parmenion is 12/1 as I write with Hills and I strongly recommend you back him.
Parmenion will need to run 3 more times before the festival to be able to run in a handicap hurdle since they’ve raised the hurdles runs required to 4
That is very unlikely to happen
But you got NRNB so doesn’t matter either way
That’s very interesting and informative FF. Thanks for the titbit.
Have they given any reason as to why it’s been introduced? Does it apply to all festival handicap hurdle races?
It was introduced to stop Mullins running horses like State Man and Saint Roi, knowing they are at least a stone well in and making a mockery of what is meant to be a competitive handicap.
State Man’s three runs were a debut outing in France, a fall at Leopardstown and hacking up at long odds on in a maiden hurdle at Limerick. How could the handicapper realistically assess his ability on that evidence? The Irish handicapper did not give him a rating.
I do not blame Mullins for gaming the system but it was a farce. State Man should have been running in the Supreme, as Mullins in effect conceded when interviewed after the race.
Galopin des Champs was another- lost to a handy Flat type on his first run over hurdles, got just far enough with a fibrillating heart for it to count towards a mark (which it shouldn’t havr IMO), then a spin round the G1 2mile novice hurdle at the DRF, then the Martin Pipe.
Constiution Hill – champion hurdle
Lossiemouth – triumph
Facile Vega – supreme
Delta Work – cross country
Allegorie De Vassy – mares chaseThat 5 fold pays 50/1! Going to lump on that next week
“Galopin des Champs was another-”
And Gaelic Warrior! Had 3 runs in France on Very Soft, Heavy and Heavy before making his British debut after almost a year off in the Fred Winter!
Thanks for that FF, though I’m dismayed to learn I’m not half as clever as I thought I was!
“they’ve raised the hurdles runs required to 4”
That’ll cramp Willie’s style a bit
Reckon Hunter’s Yarn will be his Martin Pipe horse this year, entried over an inadequate trip again soon I see, which leaves time for another little hack round before the big day.Dunno about the County. Il Etait Temps perhaps.
I’m thinking about a treble of Jonbon, Marie’s Rock and Hermes Allen at 37/1 with Betfred.
Facile vega, Jonbon, Hermes Allen and constitution hill are all the correct favourites but the odds are approaching criminal!
Tizzard you’ve just said this about 2 of the 3 of your treble selections.
Two bets at criminal odds multiplied, doesn’t make it any less criminal.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!1. No one is forced to have a bet. If you think there’s no value, don’t bet.
2. Bad value doesn’t become value by linking such horses together – it just creates multiple bets that are even worse value.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"
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