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Yeah Charlie, it’s vital to me. In my first year playing the exchanges, if I seen a big price, say 500’s on a horse I liked, and there was £33 available, I would be greedy, and have to have all of that £33. I got into a mess in my first Grand National “book” with this, very naive approach, and only Quinz winning The Racing Post Chase saved my bacon. It was a lesson learnt, and I get just that little bit stricter with myself every year.
Well here’s mine. The usual “mini books” on The Gold Cup, Stayers, Champion Hurdle, and Ryanair.
The Ryanair was a bloodbath for me last year, just horrible, but a bit happier with it this year, and though Valseur Lido is out, he wasn’t my biggest bet, and not that bothered, as I bet him for the price, more than the fact that he was on my radar.
There’s a few who’re not on the list that I’ve bet in those “books” who I’ve long layed off for either a loss or a profit, and a few who I never had the opportunity to trade, but no point listing them. All of the books are “red” at the moment, but bar The Stayers, which I’ve made a right pigs ear of, I’m confident of going green on them. Only strict staking stopped The Stayers mirroring that performance in The Ryanair last year.
I had started a book on The RSA, but greened up for a healthy profit (it was 82 pence), but I have added a couple since.
I’ll list everything bar my multis. It goes without saying a lot of those listed below are either dead in the water, through the horses clearly not going for those races, or the selections currently available at much better prices.
Supreme
Jenkins 20’s & 25’s ew
Castello Sforza 25’s ewBattleford 450’s to 460’s
Arkle
Ordinary World 50’s ewOrdinary World 120’s to 300’s
Waiting Patiently 190’sUltima Handicap
Cause of Causes 33’s both win and ew
Holywell 16’s and 20’s ewChampion Hurdle
No big blows in this book, though slightly disappointed that Heartbreak City, and Sutton Place didn’t get entries. Sternrubin was a waste of a few quid too. Main fancies were Ivan Grozny & Vroum Vroum Mag.Brain Power 25’s and 33’s ew
Petit Mouchoir 480’s to 490’s Laid 7.4 & 9.2’s
Vroum Vroum Mag 42’s to 150’s Laid 17’s
Wicklow Brave 260’s to 390’s
Nichols Canyon 180’s to 230’s Laid 20’s
Jezki 100’s to 290’s Laid 21’s to 30’s
Ivan Grozny 40’s to 200’s Laid 65’s
Ch’Tibello 320’s to 490’s Laid 48’s to 60’s
Clyne 220’s to 310’sNational Hunt Chase
Tiger Roll 25’s ewTiger Roll 32’s
Neptune
Battleford 90’s to 210’sRSA
Its’afreebee 100’s
Tiger Roll 430’s to 480’sChampion Chase
Garde La Victoire 40’s ewCross Country
Cantlow 10’s winBumper
Beyond The Clouds 60’s to 80’sJLT
Its’afreebee 33’s ewRyanair
Can’t possibly do as badly as last year (can I
) and hopeful a few of these will trap on the day. Main fancies Village Vic & More of That.Empire of Dirt 40’s win
Village Vic 70’s to 200’s
More of That 110’s to 170’s
Champagne West 120’s to 260’s Laid 24’s
Smad Place 150’s to 200’s
Long House Hall 160’s to 480’s
Saphir Du Rheu 210’s to 250’sStayers
As stated earlier, made a mess of it, and though not a disater financially, a total waste of time.The Romford Pele 33’s and 66’s ew
Ptit Zig 40’s to 230’s
The Romford Pele 80’s to 710’sKim Muir
Doctor Harper 14’s winAlbert Bartlett
Doesyourdogbite 130’sGold Cup
Main betting race for me along with The National, and already in a good position this year thanks to Empire of Dirt. Good few have been bet and subsequently laid off, but I’ve kept those in, who still have an entry. The big winner for me in this book last year was Carlingford Lough, and laying that bet off, paid for Cheltenham last year. Ironically, he’s my biggest loser this time around. Main fancies were always Native River, Zabana, and Minella Rocco.Native River 33’s ew
Minella Rocco 40’s ew
Zabana 50’s ewEmpire of Dirt 250’s to 1000’s Laid 27’s
Zabana 50’s to 90’s
More of That 120’s
Many Clouds 210’s to 380’s Laid 34’s, 48’s to 55’s
Irish Cavalier 250’s to 340’s
Smad Place 150’s to 380’s
Silviniaco Conti 230’s to 480’s
Saphir Du Rheu 160’s to 1000’s
Wounded Warrior 1000’s
Sausalito Sunrise 800’s to 1000’s
Taquin De Seuil 1000’s
Champagne West 550’s to 1000’s Laid 22’s to 25’s
Lord Windermere 1000’s
Fine Rightly 680’s to 1000’s
Blaklion 150’sGrand Annual
Sizing Platinum 25’s ewNon Runners
Fagan x 2 RSASpecials
Native River Hennessy/Cheltenham Gold Cup Double 250-1
More of That Ryanair/Grand National Double 500-1
More of That Gold Cup/Grand National Double 500-1A few disappointments but one or two still in with a shout.
Champion Hurdle – Apple’s Jade 16/1 (WIN) & Brain Power 33/1 (EW)
Still unconvinced that this is not the better target for Apple’s Jade but the Petit Mouchoir win has probably closed the door. Brain Power was extremely impressive in a handicap and needs to do something similar under different conditions in a trial race.
Triumph – Defi Du Seuil 16/1 (W)
Clearly has a massive engine. Ground a possible issue. Hobbs consistently talking about Triumph so it would be a major about turn if he were re-routed to the Supreme.
Neptune – Robin Roe 20/1 (W) & Invitation Only 10/1 (W) & Finian’s Oscar 25/1 (W)
Fast turning into a nightmare. Robin Roe and Invitation Only were the two horses best supported in the ante-post market. Who knows what would have happened with Robin Roe and Invitation Only was woeful at Navan. Now it appears Finian’s Oscar is going Tolworth??????? I know the Supreme looks weak but even so?
Gold Cup – Thistlecrack 5/1 (W) & Coneygree 10/1 (W)
On the basis of actual achievement I think Thistlecrack is now a shocking price. I am not confident at all. I think it is very unlikely that we will see Coneygree.
Ryanair – Empire Of Dirt 40/1 (W)
In terms of price by far and away the best bet I have got but it appears it will need a miracle for him to be given the chance to show that he is a proper Grade 1 horse.
RSA – Mall Dini 33/1 (EW) & Our Duke 10/1 (W)
Both look to have decent chances. Mall Dini the better of two if they can get him back to last year’s level and he gets his ground.
Arkle – Ordinary World 50/1 (EW)
Didn’t try to beat Min. Would almost certainly only run here if small field. Decent chance in Grand Annual.
JLT – Clan Des Obeaux 12/1 (W)
Very disappointing at Cheltenham. Needs a much stronger ride than STD will ever be capable of so absolutely no chance.
Albert Bartlett – Death Duty 12/1 (W)
Hasn’t done anything wrong so far but definite ground concern.
Champion Chase – Ar Mad 50/1 (EW)
Probably the only horse who could put it up to Douvan but will need to translate right-handed form. Also jockey sidelined. Give Dickie a go!
Added:-
Festival Bumper – West Coast Time 14/1 (W)
Regally bred and found a nice bit off the bridle when making a winning debut. Finding it hard to believe that Getabird is that much better than the rest?
Gold Cup – Empire Of Dirt 50/1 (EW)
Has a great chance to win the Ryanair but if pushed in the wrong direction to the tune of five furlongs his class might still enable him to place.
Fred Winter – Master Blueyes 20/1 (W)
Reasonable level of form and a little improvement should see him the mix. Likely to go off shorter than current odds.
Grand Annual – Ordinary World 20/1 (W)
Given the way he was ridden last time have a feeling connections will wave a white flag at the Arkle and go the handicap route. Good ground will help.
Some great trades there, Bobby, well done.
I’ve just started transferring all my bets to a spreadsheet. If I get it finished before Cheltenham, I’ll post them here.
Thanks Joe, a lot happier with them than I usually am at this stage, but still a long way off, and a lot can go wrong…….as I know only too well
Look forward to yours if you get the time.
Native River Hennessy/Cheltenham Gold Cup Double 250-1
Sweet……
I too had the right idea, just the wrong race…….
Was trying to be clever thinking Tizz would spread his army rather than fight each otherGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I’m just a wee bit excited by it Nath, but been here before, and just waiting to be……and this is a phrase which applies to a similar position a few years back……..”Katenkoed”
Is that Native river bet not another related double bet?
Anyway must have an excellent chance of landing at huge odds
also venture to cognac getting Petit Mouchoir and Nicholas Canyon at huge odds is impressive… but what I don’t get is why Nicholas Canyon was ever that big in the betting… surely he is one of the top hurdlers in the British isles? Or am I missing something
Nah, the Native River bet is safe Judge, I phoned up way before The Hennessy, and that’s what I was offered, so just a case of him getting there now, touch wood.
Nichols Canyon actually went even bigger than those odds, which I agree were absurd, but I got greedy, and waited and waited for them to go out again, and they were snaffled. I’m not sure why people go those odds, perhaps need the cash for their book, and willing to speculate he’d never be a factor for The Champion.
As for Petit Mouchoir, connections publicly stated he’d be going chasing after his Down Royal run, and he’d been those odds for weeks. I actually agreed he’d be one for fences, but I thought I seen potential for him to stay over timber after that run and took a chance.
Ok mate
my impression is that you put a lot of work in and that’s what you need to get an edge with this sort of long range betting.
I notice someone said earlier that they don’t really believe in Ante-post betting because of the danger they wouldn’t turn up on the day. I actually completely disagree because I think people like us who actually have a deep interest in horse racing can you use that to get an edge over the ordinary punter, therefore to me ante-post betting is one of the few ways left where you might be able to win against the bookies.
So far
Supreme
Crack Mome 11/1Neptune
Finian’s Oscar 7/1RSA
Alpha des Obeaux 20/1Champion Chase
Ar Mad 25/1 (EW)Ryanair
Un des Sceaux 8/1
Valseur Lido 11/1 (gone)
Vaniteux 250/1Albert Bartlett
West Approach 25/1Gold Cup
Cue Card (without Thistlecrack) 7/1
Minnela Rocco 50/1 EWYeah Judge, put a bit of time in, and start proper in October, November, and do a lot of “route planning” for my horses, though it don’t always pay off, and end up in a dead end lol
I can though, totally agree with those who don’t do it, as I alluded to earlier, I can now see the sense that a 10-1 shot on the day is miles better value than a 33-1 shot who doesn’t trap.
Everyone’s different though, and I just hope I can get enough right this time, cause it ain’t no fun when it goes wrong
Native River Hennessy/Cheltenham Gold Cup Double 250-1
Sweet……
I too had the right idea, just the wrong race…….
Was trying to be clever thinking Tizz would spread his army rather than fight each otherOne of the most inspired bets I’ve ever seen. Bobby spotted NR’s potential a long time ago. Aside from his massively helpful forum work, Bobby’s one of the shrewdest punters I’ve known: hard work and specialising in staying chases a big part of that success, I’d imagine. Rock on, Bobby. Long may you continue socking it to the bookies!
I think Cheltenham ante-post is different to anything else in the year.
The key for me is not to have too many bets. It isn’t easy to guarantee a lot of winners, let alone alone decent priced ones. I would be looking at two winners as a break even position and three to be looking at profit, unless of course a 40/1 or 50/1 goes in.
I am pretty sure that VTC would agree that it is a totally different game on the exchanges. Those sort of ‘ridiculous’ odds don’t exist anywhere else.
My AP festival book is nowhere near what it was before The Mullins Vautour escapade, and as long as he is dominating, I won’t return to previous levels.
I’ve had various multiples featuring quite a few of the ones below, the biggest of them £5ew doubles and £10 ew treble God’s Own at 20/1 for the Ryanair, Brain Power at 12/1 for Champion Hurdle, and The New One at 16/1 for the Stayers – all NRNB.
As you’ll see, I’ve lost a fair lump already, mostly on Altior for Champion Hurdle
Doubtless I will add to this list by March, and I’ve been exceptionally lucky so far regarding non-runners from injury. I’ve no doubt whatever a few will suffer and come out – they always do and you can only hope it’s not a big one: loss of something like Brain Power or God’s Own would be a serious blow to me, so touching wood before I post.
ALARY – GOLD CUP EW 33/1
ALTIOR – CHAMPION HURDLE 20/1
ALTIOR, TCRACK – ARKLE/GOLD CUP: DBL 3/1, 7/1
ALTIOR, TCRACK – CHAMP HURDLE/GC: DBL 8/1 8/1
ALTIOR, TCRACK – SAME DOUBLE AS ABOVE: 8/1 10/1
ALTIOR – QM – 54/1
ALTIOR – QM – 49/1
APP JADE – STAYERS 33/1
APP JADE – CH 25/1
BRAIN POWER – CH 33/1
BRAIN POWE – CH 16/1
BRAIN POWER- CH 50/1
BRAIN POWER – CH 25/1
CANTLOW – X COUNTRY 10/1
CHARBEL – ARKLE 33/1
CHARBEL – ARKLE 74/1
CRACK MOME – SUPREME 10/1
C TIZZ 1ST 3 IN GOLD CUP 12/1
C TIZZ 1ST 4 66/1
C TIZZ GC WIN 4/6
DJAKADAM – RYANAIR 25/1
DON POLI – GC 149/1
DOUVAN – GC 16/1
FINIAN’S OSCAR – SUPREME 12/1
FOX NORTON – QM 50/1
GOD’S OWN – RYANAIR 33/1
GOD’S OWN- RYANAIR 25/1
IVAN GROZNY – CH 69/1
JEZKI – STAYERS 14/1
MOON RACER – SUPREME 12/1
MOON RACER – CH 50/1
NATIVE RIVER- STAYERS 33/1
OH OH 7 – JLT 20/1
SEEYOUAT MIDNIGHT – GC 50/1
SUB LIEUT – RYANAIR 16/1
TCRACK – GC 6/1
TNEW ONE – STAYERS 33/1
TNEW ONE – STAYERS 44/1
TOP VILLE BEN – SUPREME 40/1
V LIDO – GC 25/1
WEST APPROACH – A BARTLETT 50/1
WILLOUGHBY COURT – A BARTLETT 33/1Definitely stilvi, the exchanges are a minefield, and timing can be crucial. Also very important to remind yourself that the big prices are there for a reason, and more often than not you’ll get your fingers burned. If the prices looks too good to be true, then chances are it probably is. If I do go for one, which I obviously do, then there’s got to be method to the madness.
) and hopeful a few of these will trap on the day. Main fancies Village Vic & More of That.
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