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Unless there’s significant rain in the meantime the going at Newmarket on Saturday is likely, if anything, to be on the fast side of good. The ground yesterday was good, not good to soft, according to the times of the winners.
The Halifax mob have his two Juddmonte efforts on 126 and last year’s Champion Stakes 125. He ran to 121 on their figures in the 2004 Leger, so you would be hard pushed to have him as a progressive sort.
Agreed, don’t see how he’s done anything extra this year. Losing narrowly to Electrocutionist and Zenno Rob Roy reads better than losing narrowly to Notnowcato!
Without digging too hard at Jack, this year’s Juddmonte was surely quite a long way short of the usual quality….
The last 3 or 4 runnings of the Juddmonte suggest the race isn’t what it was. Recent winners wouldn’t see the likes of Sakhee, Giant’s Causeway and Falbrav for dust.
(Edited by davidjohnson at 10:37 am on Oct. 13, 2006)
SP is a miler despite never winning a race over a mile?
Gareth, he’s run once over a mile. Beaten by one horse only, and everyone knows about that. He won the dewhurst over 7f and was unbeaten over 6f. Somebody show me Pride’s figures in shorter distances which proves she has a superior pace and turn of foot? To be honest I just can’t see it. She flatters to deceive in my opinion. I think she’s got the heart of a lion but hasn’t quite got the class. I’d be very surprised if she finishes in front of SP.
His race with Zenno Rob Roy, Electrocutionist, Ace, etc was on quick ground, surely his preferred ground.
But given that he won very few turf races before this season, to have won 2 this year ain’t bad.
Based on the King George running, he’s got about 5lbs to make up with Hurricane Run, and over 2 furlongs shorter, I think that is certainly possible.
The Juddmonte was a falsely run race, and he got beat narrowly, but it surely shows his versatility?
You’re changing your argument now Jack. I wasn’t disputing his versatility, I was disagreeing with your assertion that he’s ‘made big steps on turf this year’.
Looking at his race record, before this season, he had won just 3 races on the turf. The Huxley Stakes, the Gordon Stakes and a maiden.
Several placed efforts, including the Juddmonte as has been said, but I certainly didn’t expect his Hardwicke win, and also didn’t expect a top 2 finish in the Juddmonte International this year.
He has defied my expectations this year certainly. I’m not a fan of ratings as I have said before, but he was awarded a RPR of 125 for both this year’s and last year’s Juddmonte, and his ratings have been steadily increasing throughout the season.
99 – 115 – 117 – 120 – 119 – 125.
He’s had the benefit of a 2 month break, a privilege that Pride, Hurricane Run and Olympian Odyssey have not had, and it was the last half-furlong that beat him at York. That last half-furlong does not apply to this race.
But let’s not forget that Notnowcato seems to be a progressive sort himself. He was a decent handicapper last year, recording RPRs of 82 – 92 – 83 – 86 – 103 – 107, but this year has improved considerably. 116 – 119 – 121 – 119 – 125.
He’s certainly an underrated performer himself. Let’s not forget he won the Brigadier Gerard (fair enough not the best race in the world), but was only beaten 2L in the Prince of Wales, beaten 1 1/2L by David Junior in the Eclipse, and then won at York.
I wouldn’t be suprised to see either of them in the finish.
The Hardwick form doesnt stand up. Just like the Juddmonte
Hard Top and the eternally disappointing Mountain High have hardly advertsised the form and Day flight was on ground way to fast for him
Its a massive step from winning this race to challenging the best middle distance horses in europe
For someone who slated Percussionist as "not a group one horse" you certainly have some confidence in a runner round without a group one win in 20 runs….:)
Stoute is woinderful at improving horses at this sort of age, but this is a massive ask…
Champion Stakes seems to me like the England football team. Square pegs in round holes.
Hurricane Run who was at his best in a strong paced 1m4f in last years Arc. So with a trip too short and the horse not in good form i’m against.
Sir Percy, needed every yard of the 1m4f in the Derby and with long lay has fitness doubts.
Pride, the Bridesmaid of the field, guarenteed to be a fast finishing second.
That leaves the Juddmonte form on similar ground over the same trip. Having been at York that day i’m still convinced Maraahel won and the judge got it wrong (talking the pocket). But I think the value lies with Maraahel to turn around the form with Notnowcato and win. With a saver on Notnowcato.
Teofilo for the Dewhurst.
Detroit City for the Cesarewitch.
I’ve backed Quizzine for the Ces. I know he’s a dog but he is off his last winning mark, showed he’s back in some sort of form judged on his Haydock second (got run of the race), but I thought he shaped better than the result there last time, sticking on well enough after setting a strong gallop. That race is looking solid enough and provided 2 of the first 4 in last year’s renewal. He is obviosly unexposed beyond 14f and shapes as if he’ll stay. Provided Royston doesn’t think he has to lead and goes to quick I think there are worst 40/1 pokes in the race.
Sir Percy, needed every yard of the 1m4f in the Derby and with long lay has fitness doubts.
Not a chance!
The doubt was whether he would stay 12f not that he would need it all….come on jackane…u must know that
He ran well in the guineas ffs
As for fitness, this stable is more than adept and getting them ready and the vibes are very very positive
<br>I confess I’m completely mystified by the support for Detroit City. His last win on the flat came in a 0-70 handicap at Nottingham, for which he was raised a harsh 12lbs – the horses he beat there have achieved nothing since.
He then ran in a dire four runner Listed race at Newmarket and finished second, prompting the handicapper to raise him another 12lbs. The winner of that race subsequently finished last behind Alcazar in France and then disappeared. The third hasn’t won since and the fourth was only 11th of 16 in his last flat race, a race whose form I know well as I owned the winner!
So Detroit City is 24lbs above his last winning mark, untried at 2M or further and by a sire whose offspring relish fast ground. His position as favourite seems to stem entirely from his hurdle form and the presumption that he has improved.
If you look back at the past record of Triumph Hurdle winners, there’s not much evidence to back up the idea that a horse will show improvement returned to the flat – Heighlin might be the last one!
AP
Quote: from clivex on 1:10 pm on Oct. 13, 2006[br]
<br>The doubt was whether he would stay 12f not that he would need it all….come on jackane…u must know that
Wasn’t me that posted that! It was johnny!
I didn’t say Maraahel would win. I said that I thought he was decent value and I thought he would be in the finish. Personally I think the top 4 will be between Sir Percy, Maraahel, Notnowcato and Pride.
If HR had won the Arc do you think:
a) he’d be running and<br>b) If he did would he have been a real short price?
Thinking about the race, this will be the first time (I think) he’s run over a straight course. Do you think this will suit? And will Kinane just try and gallop them into the ground?
I think the main feeling with Fabre, is that Pride can quicken in a flash off a slow pace. Hurricane Run can’t.
So do they make the running to guarantee a fast/medium pace and possibly set the race up for the others, or do they go to the front off a slow pace, quicken gradually, and hope Pride doesn’t catch him?
But he certainly wouldn’t be running if he won the Arc. Personally, I think it’s a mistake not sending him to the BC straight from the Arc, if he is to go to the BC at all.
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