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I would think that section will have a fair bit of juice in it by race time with a storm coming. Alan King just wants it nearly unraceable heavy so Trueshan has the race to himself ;o)
They won’t be on it anyway unless its heavy ground on the main course Mike so it’ll get softer for sure but its good-firm in places currently. They won’t make a decision on that until last minute probably so it won’t affect the decs tomorrow, chances are those in races on the round course will have no idea what they’ll be racing on.
Softer the better for ROYAL RHYME 14/1. I’ll keep it to a minimum bet as it is a hefty step up in grade but there is no real standout so worth a shot. With the amount of rain they will be getting I would assume the inner course would be plenty soft enough.
I can’t see it not being used, I’d even wager there’s a good chance of the outer being unraceable.Looking for my usual hail mary to put my ew buttons on I’ve settled on Point Lonsdale at 66s. He’s probably just not good enough and needs an extra couple of furlongs but OTOH he’s not going to be kicked out of his stride and hustled to the front to be Auguste Rodin’s domestique like in his last two races. As Paddington not declared, he isn’t going to be made to be any other Coolmore horse’s b*tch and can be ridden on his merits to achieve his best possible placing.
Previous trainer quotes on ground:
Soft: “He wouldn’t like that ground, he wants good or better ideally as he’s a lovely mover”
Good: That’s his ground, he’s a very low mover. He won in soft ground last time but that would have to be his favourite ground”but that was when he was a 2yo and they were still trying to push him as a future Flat stallion prospect. I’ve never heard AOB say that a 2 or 3 yo Very Extra Special colt is a ground pounding mudlark
He hasn’t been beaten in 4 starts on soft or heavy (albeit in lower grade races) and his action looks moderate to me.Why on earth is horizon Dore fav?
Form is muck
My prediction is bay bridge goes off fav but King of steel wins
With GAG here: Point Lonsdale looks much too big at 66/1. O’Brien and Moore, 1 from 1 on heavy, 3 from 3 on soft. Beaten under 4 lengths last time on unfavorable ground (Irish Champion Stakes).
I agree regarding Horizon Dore FF and I can see Bay Bridge and King Of Steel toppling him at the head of affairs. You can definitely throw stones at both of their form too though, its a renewal lacking a superstar assuming Mostahdaf defects on account of the ground.
That’s reflected in the official ratings of the horses to be fair without Mostahdaf:
Bay Bridge, King Of Steel 121
Horizon Dore, Dubai Honour (looks a bit dubious) 120
My Prospero 119
Via Sistina 116 but gets 3lb in filly/mare allowance so is the equivalent of My Prospero
Point Lonsdale 115
Royal Rhyme 113121 isn’t a very high benchmark for a G1
I fail to see why Mostahdaf has now become favourite for this I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t run due to the going.
The more I know the less I understand.
Ground on the hurdle course will still be too soft for Mostahdaf to be seen to his very best especially considering it will be the 3rd and last race of the day run on the hurdles course, it will have been opened up by the other race runners so that even the predicted lesser showers will still get into it and make it more testing than good to soft come race time.
If he was mine I would have pulled him out and gone to BC as to me the ground will inconvenience/blunt his speed more than those who like/want genuine soft ground – madness to have him favourite.
Mostadahf will surely run given he has won both his races on soft ground, albeit two years ago. It’s hardly a top running of this race.
Mostahdaf’s two wins on soft were in Listed company in which he scrambled home by ½L on both occassions – so while it may not be a vintage running, we do have notable horses way above listed class that have most (if not all) their best form on predominately good to soft or softer ground.
His best runs have all been on fast ground (good at worse) and while I believe genuine good to soft he might get away with, it will suit his rivals more than it will him and I don’t think it will be genuinely good to soft by that time.
Would he be running if gosden had an unassailable lead over obrien in the trainers title. I doubt it very much. Plus if he has a hard race it could scupper his chance in the breeders Cup. Very strange decision by gosden. To my eyes anyway. He must think Paddington is going to win the previous race.🤣🤣
“I fail to see why Mostahdaf has now become favourite for this I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t run due to the going”.
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Now that he’s running (or declared to run) he has to be favourite RTB.
True, Mostahdaf’s improved form has come on a firmer surface and imo has an action that shouts “best on a sound if not a firm surface”! He’s shortened dramatically because his ante-post odds were judged on likelihood of not running. Therefore ante-post odds were as much about the chance of losing your money before the race has started, than the actual surface being probably against him if running. Now it’s day of race it’s non runner no bet he was always going to shorten considerably if declared… And the bookies bonus (yes) if now a non-runner the shorter he is the more rule 4 deduction on the winner.However, if it was a firm surface here he’d be odds-on or certainly somewhere near it, no Paddington, Nashwa, Auguste or Luxembourg. So the odds available for this softer surface aren’t really that short. May well be able to run 5 lbs below his best and still win. So it’s a case of how far below his best will he be?
Mickey is probably right in why he’s running. More to do with the trainer’s title than anything else.
Value Is EverythingGosden walking the course at 930-10am. I think he’ll take his chance and go close. Still optimistic on ROYAL RHYME, the outer course would have been preferable but I think there’s a good deal of improvement there. Addeeyb won this race off the back of a narrow win at Ayr.
King of steel for me
Mostahdaf better on good ground
Horizon dor faced 1 top horse this season and got walloped by big rock
Bay bridge will have had a hard race on unsuitable ground in the Arc so could well struggle today
Royal rhyme an interesting outsider, looked a group 1 horse in the making last time.
Track, trip and ground should suit king of steel nicely
I wouldn’t be surprised if King Of Steel won now the ground isn’t as bad as it was looking like earlier in the week.
I’m less worried about Bay Bridge’s Arc participation, time will tell but it may have been a ‘work prep’ for this as there is no way he was going to have been a factor on that ground in the Arc and they could easily have taken him out if they wanted, knowing this race wasn’t far away.
I don’t like Royal Rhyme from a win perspective, big jump from listed to group 1.
Horizon Dore’s price looks a bit more realistic now though I like others in the race more.
Dubai Honour apparently isn’t fully fit.
My Prospero you are trusting that the headgear works.
Via Sistina wrong race imo for the win, should’ve tried against her own sex on the inner track.
Point Lonsdale winning would be an upset.
Mostahdaf may not show his best on the ground.
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