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Onesto ew @ 33’s
Seems as good a time as any.
The French have done quite well in this over the years if i recall. That race Inspiral won the other week seemed a very strong one compared to what else has been run this year and for his first run back as a 4YO ran an absolute cracker considering it was over a mile.
He did everything but win the Irish champion stakes last year on soft ground, a group one winner already so that could well be the aim again next, either that or an Arc trial. Without any improvement he looks to be one of the top half dozen in the field already looking at the entries.
Last year it was 50/50 here or the Arc so could do both this year if he steps up next time given the time between the races this year.
I do like Alflaila, and even safe in the knowledge that he’s maybe just short of what is required here, I’ve bet him at 20-1
Took 6/1 against Bay Bridge. His comeback run at Kempton was good and this is clearly his target, unlike some of the others quoted towards the top of the market. I can see him going off favourite on the day.
Agree, Bay Bridge is more likely to run than most, CAS.
But was upped in trip last time out – and seemed to settle well.
Has Stoutie said he definitely goes for this?
Or is there a chance he’ll go for the Arc?Value Is EverythingThis looks like a no ante-post betting race to me.
If Mostahdaf, Paddington or Rodin turn up I can see Bay Bridge starting around the 6/1 he is now.
You’d be taking a big chance if betting on one of those three now, but the chance of one of the three turning up isn’t that small. Nashwa would also come into consideration if connections reconsider.If forcing me to have a bet it would be Luxembourg @ 14/1 B365.
Seems better at 10 than 12f nowadays and flopped in last year’s Arc (beaten 7 1/2 lengths) so should surely come here instead? Probably equally effective from just on the good-firm side of good (Royal Ascot) to Soft (2022 Irish Champion). Take Mostahdaf and Rodin out and he’d have won both Prince Of Wales (over C&D) and the Irish Champion this year… As well as having a verdict over Nashwa and King Of Steel in the latter, over Bay Bridge in the Tatts Gold Cup, and Onesto in last year’s Irish Champion..Value Is EverythingErevann for me at 66-1 ew. I think it’s highly debatable that he’ll run, but I just like that price, and I’m willing to take the chance
The market seems pretty sure Paddington and Nashwa are going QE2 but both still entered here if we’re working on a softer ground assumption that takes Mostahdaf out of the equation and you’re left with this French group 2 winner, King Of Steel, Bay Bridge at the head of the market for a Champion Stakes. Surely that doesn’t frighten you whereas that QEII looks hot on paper, I can see at least one of them ducking it to come here. Nashwa more likely given she’s only ran once over a mile at group company against her own sex. She’s not beating Tahiyra and Paddington over a mile for my money whereas I’d fancy her to beat this lot.
Bay Bridge is the obvious one given the ground is currently soft and with the cooler weather kicking in it will not dry out quick enough to suit Mostahdaf – who to me connections would be mad to run him on anything slower than good, yes I know he has won twice on soft as a 3 yr old but there are much better class horse in this race that will be much better suited to it than him.
I thought the Japan Cup could have been an option (yes I know he wouldn’t have much chance against Equinox, unless he meets trouble in running) but the money on offer….you get £82k more for finishing 3rd in the Japan Cup than you do for winning the Champion Stakes itself and if you finish in the first 5 you get more than 2nd place prize money at Ascot too. Even finishing 8th you get more than 3rd placed money at Ascot. Having won the POW he also qualifies for a $3m bonus if he went and actually won the Japan Cup. Fast ground also much more likely out there.
As an aside, I think Nashwa is fully capable of beating both Paddington (who she finished in front of at York) and Tahiyra who’s actual form in beating the likes of Rogue Millenium (1¼L), Remarquee (1L) and Meditate (1½L) is nothing special, bearing in mind none of them have won since and Nashwa thrashed Remarquee by an easy 5L at Newmarket.
If Nashwa’s connections decide to go to the QE2, I think on softish ground the stiff mile trip would suit her much better than 10F…..she has a potent turn of foot and if Hollie can get her settled early on, I can well see her being the biggest danger to Paddington.
In a weird sort of way and this does sound counterintuitive as its run over further, you’d suspect greater stamina test but the turn of foot might come to greater use in what could be a tactical small field Champion Stakes (only 11 left including Nashwa and Paddington) on the round course rather than the stiff straight mile with Big Rock and Triple Time potentially in there from the front, Big Rock stays the mile very well so its not in his interests to make it a speed test. I agree about the bare form of Tahiyra, this is gut feeling but she’s one of these who just wins races, nothing bar Mawj has looked like beating her and I can see her putting up a huge career best on Saturday. I’m just putting myself in their shoes and actually the market seems quite undecided on her now given that reality about Mostahdaf.
Nashwa’s form is better on a sound surface, but that may yet be coincidence.
A filly who is seemingly equally effective at 8 and 10f.
…With such a distance requirement it is usually the case a soft surface places more emphasis on stamina, So on soft she may be capable of better form at 8 than 10. However, her potential rivals in each race might mean a lesser performance will be needed to win the Champion.
Not an easy decision for connections.Value Is EverythingSounds like the weather is going to alter plans for a number of horses
My Prospero might be worth a shout (only ½L behind Bay Bridge last year and is double his price currently) and he won on soft last time out and for a bigger e/w outside bet how about Dubai Honour who has won on soft and very soft in France (and yes it was proper French soft as the time was almost 9sec slow), he was also runner up in this race in 2021 and he will be the freshest horse having not run since the Eclipse (which was his first run since April).
Connections are thinking of resorting to a tongue tie or blinkers for My Prospero at the weekend which indicates he’s not been the same horse as last year. Dubai Honour may not run but they said they will see.
Potentially if Ascot gets that amount of rain in the forecast, we might not need to worry about moving races to the inside course as the meeting could very well end up being abandoned
Forecast looks worrying. Definitely need horses who handle very soft going. None of the gosdens will so I’d go for Bay Bridge,Paddington as likely to plough through the mud. If it is abandoned will they run it the following weekend.
Worth noting that inner course is a lot quicker than the outer at the moment, Alan King doesn’t want the Long Distance Cup moving. Could also be a factor in where Paddington and Nashwa go as it doesn’t sound likely the straight track races (sprint, QEII, Balmoral) would move so they’ll be on worse ground.
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