- This topic has 160 replies, 27 voices, and was last updated 7 years ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Sectional times is the reason why I too will be backing Cracksman.
My original thought was that he needs a bit further but I’ve changed my mind.
Now this is interesting.. Brametot may run here.
That’s one of the few horses I’d back over Cracksman in this.
If he’s a likely runner this time next week, I’ll be playing Brametot at the decent prices.
If he doesn’t run, it’ll be Cracksman on the day I imagine.
I personally don’t like Cracksman at the trip or the course. I think he’ll be out speeded at the crucial time.
Form franked for Sir John Lavery and Beat The Bank as Jallota hacks up in warm-looking Listed race at Redcar.
Form franked for Sir John Lavery and Beat The Bank as Jallota hacks up in warm-looking Listed race at Redcar.
Speaking of that Listed race, what the hell has happened to Don’t Touch? I love that horse, but he’s been ‘off’ ever since the July Cup last year.
Surely Winter has had too much racing for the year, I wouldn’t touch her with a bargepole.
They should put her away for the season.
I think that’s an overestimated factor. She has raced the exact same number of times as Enable – with a few easier races along the way – yet if Enable were to line up here would you not “touch her with a barge pole?”
I think Barney Roy is coming into this as a forgotten horse. His form behind Ulysses – who I think would be a shoe-in if he ran – is second to none for this distance. Hannon has confirmed this is his target, 6/1 could look huge if Cracksman were to not run. The only worry is if it came up soft would he have the stamina to see it out over potential challengers like Cracksman. Having said that I think he has the perfect blend of speed and stamina for this contest whilst Cracksman only has stamina.
Brametot 10/1 is certainly backable, but his running style and temperament can get him into trouble and I want to be sure I get a good run for my money.
Of the rest I think Decorated Knight could sneak into a place. If Cracksman sets a gruelling pace out in front we could see a lot of tired horses tailing off at the business end, leaving it for Decorated Knight to pick up the pieces.
My selections:
Barney Roy 6/1
Decorated Knight 16/1 each-way
Form franked for Sir John Lavery and Beat The Bank as Jallota hacks up in warm-looking Listed race at Redcar.
I thought that was an awful Listed race. Runner up is more or less gone at the game. Ran to 77 previous time. The 2/1 Fav was a Handicap winner off 86 on his previous start. I’ll lay against that form till the cows come home when looking at Group 1 races.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Surely Winter has had too much racing for the year, I wouldn’t touch her with a bargepole.
They should put her away for the season.
I think that’s an overestimated factor. She has raced the exact same number of times as Enable – with a few easier races along the way – yet if Enable were to line up here would you not “touch her with a barge pole?”
I think Barney Roy is coming into this as a forgotten horse. His form behind Ulysses – who I think would be a shoe-in if he ran – is second to none for this distance. Hannon has confirmed this is his target, 6/1 could look huge if Cracksman were to not run. The only worry is if it came up soft would he have the stamina to see it out over potential challengers like Cracksman. Having said that I think he has the perfect blend of speed and stamina for this contest whilst Cracksman only has stamina.
Brametot 10/1 is certainly backable, but his running style and temperament can get him into trouble and I want to be sure I get a good run for my money.
Of the rest I think Decorated Knight could sneak into a place. If Cracksman sets a gruelling pace out in front we could see a lot of tired horses tailing off at the business end, leaving it for Decorated Knight to pick up the pieces.
My selections:
Barney Roy 6/1
Decorated Knight 16/1 each-way
Is Decorated Knight going to run? Heard he was more likely to go to the Breeders Cup.
Voleur, Cracksman wouldn’t be ‘all stamina’ for my money. Takes a few strides to hit top gear but once he does he can motor.
Anyone concerned that Irish Derby 4th Waldgeist was beaten at 4/7 getting 6 lbs from Danehill Kodiac?
Previously only a Handicap winner, they were toying with sending Danehill Kodiac over hurdles.
Cracksman’s own two runs since the Irish Derby were hardly stellar affairs. Surely at this trip Barney Roy is the better value at 6/1, compared with 5/2 Cracksman (Paddy Power’s Odds)? A St James Palace Stakes winner would have more pace than the Derby runner who scrambled to catch Permian over the shorter trip. Then there is a Guineas winner to beat if she shows. Maybe they will pull Cracksman out yet.
I won’t be backing the current Fav anyway.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think Winter wins this if she’s recovered from her Chantilly exploits and can’t see 7/1 being available at all come the day.
Anyone concerned that Irish Derby 4th Waldgeist was beaten at 4/7 getting 6 lbs from Danehill Kodiac?
Certainly those of us who were on the French runner!
I still can’t believe he was turned over, I can only assume he wasn’t 100% or maybe he’s just a 10 furlong horse through and through.
Surely Winter has had too much racing for the year, I wouldn’t touch her with a bargepole.
They should put her away for the season.
I think that’s an overestimated factor. She has raced the exact same number of times as Enable – with a few easier races along the way – yet if Enable were to line up here would you not “touch her with a barge pole?”
I think Barney Roy is coming into this as a forgotten horse. His form behind Ulysses – who I think would be a shoe-in if he ran – is second to none for this distance. Hannon has confirmed this is his target, 6/1 could look huge if Cracksman were to not run. The only worry is if it came up soft would he have the stamina to see it out over potential challengers like Cracksman. Having said that I think he has the perfect blend of speed and stamina for this contest whilst Cracksman only has stamina.
Brametot 10/1 is certainly backable, but his running style and temperament can get him into trouble and I want to be sure I get a good run for my money.
Of the rest I think Decorated Knight could sneak into a place. If Cracksman sets a gruelling pace out in front we could see a lot of tired horses tailing off at the business end, leaving it for Decorated Knight to pick up the pieces.
My selections:
Barney Roy 6/1
Decorated Knight 16/1 each-way
Is Decorated Knight going to run? Heard he was more likely to go to the Breeders Cup.
To tell you the truth Degaussed I’m not sure. Where did you hear he was more likely to go to the Breeder’s Cup?
All I was able to find in relation to his future targets was this quote in the immediate aftermath of his win in the Irish Champion: “I was half thinking this might be his last race, but I’ll look at the [Oct. 21 G1 Qipco] Champion Stakes at Ascot now.”
He’s a horse who seems to travel well so he is entitled to take his chance on the Del Mar mile, but his best chance of securing yet another Gr. 1 surely lies in Ascot over 10f.
Voleur, Cracksman wouldn’t be ‘all stamina’ for my money. Takes a few strides to hit top gear but once he does he can motor.
As you say Steeplechasing he takes a few strides to hit top gear, which over 10f could be his downfall. He gallops relentlessly, but he has no turn of foot to speak of, and over this sharper trip he may get caught out by those who do.
Regarding Winter, she is the one I fear the most. I didn’t fully consider her involvement here, but with Churchill in the QEII, Rhododendron and Hydrangea going to America, and her failed attempt at 12f still fresh, this seems like the only likely target for her. If she turned up with all the other market principles, I’d have her at 3/1 favourite, largely due to her allowance. Her form over 10f wouldn’t be up to Barney Roy’s standard I think, but she has a decisive turn of foot of her own and the allowance could swing things in her favour. Fillies don’t have a great record in the race (1 win in the last 10 years), but not many fillies as good as Winter have contested in recent years.
I’ve talked myself into it now… Added Winter 7/1. Hopefully she’s come out of the Arc in good form.
It’s always easier to look like you are motoring when running against slow horses.
In the Irish Derby, it takes Cracksman a full 2 furlongs to close on Capri and make it a tight finish. I reckon Smullen gives him nine cracks over that 2F stretch and we need to bear in mind it was the future St Leger winner he was chasing.
Cracksman’s next race saw him win at very skinny odds. A winner has come out of that race, Ice Breeze, but it was over 1M 7F and he beat The Queen’s horse Call To Mind narrowly, not exactly Champion Stakes stuff. In addition, the runner up was stuffed further next time and his best win was a short neck victory in a Listed Race.
I am not seeing much speed about Cracksman, certainly not enough to back him for this at the odds.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
As you say Steeplechasing he takes a few strides to hit top gear, which over 10f could be his downfall. He gallops relentlessly, but he has no turn of foot to speak of, and over this sharper trip he may get caught out by those who do.
Cracksman progressed between Irish Derby and Voltigeur, sectional analysis confirms the speed he showed was not there previously. True that he needs to be asked to quicken (at both Yark and Chantilly other horses seemed to be going better than he was). But the acceleration is pretty immediate. It is not that Cracksman “has no turn of foot”, it’s just that he needs to be asked for it. At both courses going clear in a matter of a few strides. That’s not “relentless galloping”, that’s speed.
Cliffs Of Moher and Barney Roy went off a little too fast for their own good in the 10f International which has a bearing on any comparisson. However, the Voltigeur was by no means slowly run early and Cracksman (without coming under maximum effort) did the final two furlongs of the longer race in a faster time than Ulysses.
Value Is EverythingSurely Winter has had too much racing for the year, I wouldn’t touch her with a bargepole.
They should put her away for the season.
I think that’s an overestimated factor. She has raced the exact same number of times as Enable – with a few easier races along the way – yet if Enable were to line up here would you not “touch her with a barge pole?”
I think Barney Roy is coming into this as a forgotten horse. His form behind Ulysses – who I think would be a shoe-in if he ran – is second to none for this distance. Hannon has confirmed this is his target, 6/1 could look huge if Cracksman were to not run. The only worry is if it came up soft would he have the stamina to see it out over potential challengers like Cracksman. Having said that I think he has the perfect blend of speed and stamina for this contest whilst Cracksman only has stamina.
Brametot 10/1 is certainly backable, but his running style and temperament can get him into trouble and I want to be sure I get a good run for my money.
Of the rest I think Decorated Knight could sneak into a place. If Cracksman sets a gruelling pace out in front we could see a lot of tired horses tailing off at the business end, leaving it for Decorated Knight to pick up the pieces.
My selections:
Barney Roy 6/1
Decorated Knight 16/1 each-way
Is Decorated Knight going to run? Heard he was more likely to go to the Breeders Cup.
To tell you the truth Degaussed I’m not sure. Where did you hear he was more likely to go to the Breeder’s Cup?
All I was able to find in relation to his future targets was this quote in the immediate aftermath of his win in the Irish Champion: “I was half thinking this might be his last race, but I’ll look at the [Oct. 21 G1 Qipco] Champion Stakes at Ascot now.”
He’s a horse who seems to travel well so he is entitled to take his chance on the Del Mar mile, but his best chance of securing yet another Gr. 1 surely lies in Ascot over 10f.
Voleur, Cracksman wouldn’t be ‘all stamina’ for my money. Takes a few strides to hit top gear but once he does he can motor.
As you say Steeplechasing he takes a few strides to hit top gear, which over 10f could be his downfall. He gallops relentlessly, but he has no turn of foot to speak of, and over this sharper trip he may get caught out by those who do.
Regarding Winter, she is the one I fear the most. I didn’t fully consider her involvement here, but with Churchill in the QEII, Rhododendron and Hydrangea going to America, and her failed attempt at 12f still fresh, this seems like the only likely target for her. If she turned up with all the other market principles, I’d have her at 3/1 favourite, largely due to her allowance. Her form over 10f wouldn’t be up to Barney Roy’s standard I think, but she has a decisive turn of foot of her own and the allowance could swing things in her favour. Fillies don’t have a great record in the race (1 win in the last 10 years), but not many fillies as good as Winter have contested in recent years.
I’ve talked myself into it now… Added Winter 7/1. Hopefully she’s come out of the Arc in good form.
Explaining the decision, he said on Sunday: “We’re considering the Breeders’ Cup, he’ll either go there for the Mile, or to the Champion Stakes, but at the moment we’re favouring Del Mar.
“He loves fast ground, which you tend not to get at Ascot in October, and a fast run race over two turns should really suit him. Plus, the turn of foot he showed at the end of yesterday’s race is also encouraging.
“He’s won three Group 1s this year, anything else is a bonus, and I imagine he’ll have only one more run before going off to stud – where he should be very popular as a three-parts brother to Gleneagles out of a sister to Giant’s Causeway – and it’d be a big bonus to win over a mile in America, and no loss if not.”
Charlton added: “It was amazing, unbelievable, fantastic. It was really good. He was at a disadvantage to everyone else as we didn’t fly him over and Mr O’Brien has even less far to go, whereas he travelled 12 hours to get there and it’ll be the same on the way back, so it makes it extra special.”
It’s always easier to look like you are motoring when running against slow horses.
In the Irish Derby, it takes Cracksman a full 2 furlongs to close on Capri and make it a tight finish. I reckon Smullen gives him nine cracks over that 2F stretch and we need to bear in mind it was the future St Leger winner he was chasing.
Cracksman’s next race saw him win at very skinny odds. A winner has come out of that race, Ice Breeze, but it was over 1M 7F and he beat The Queen’s horse Call To Mind narrowly, not exactly Champion Stakes stuff. In addition, the runner up was stuffed further next time and his best win was a short neck victory in a Listed Race.
I am not seeing much speed about Cracksman, certainly not enough to back him for this at the odds.
I agree with you on this one Steve.
I just think he’s priced up on more than what he’s actually done on the racecourse and can’t see him winning a 10 furlong Group 1 for the hills.
Will they make the running on him?
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.