- This topic has 220 replies, 46 voices, and was last updated 3 years, 7 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
“If Goshen can give the mares 7lbs and a beating then he is a superstar.”
Not really. Average OR required to win a CH over the last 10 years is 165. As we stand, a rating of 168 is required to tie with both Mares, whom are rated 161. Goshen is currently rated 164. It would require an excellent performance, and a bit of improvement, but nothing hugely out of the ordinary.
All in theory of course, but theory is all we have at the moment.
BUY THE SUN
Call me mad, but I’d like to see Pic D’Orhy supplemented for this. I thought his performance yesterday off 11st 12lb giving weight away all round and travelling like a dream before being collared was highly promising. I would have him as a lively outsider if he lined up.
Honeysuckle rating of 161 is too low imo. Going up just 2lbs for last time underestimates her. I would say 164 myself. So that means the Goshens and the Sharjahs would have to go 170s to win.
Goshen looks like an altered beast now that his irregular heartbeat is back to normal (I hope). He somewhat reminds me of Nijinsky with his cruising and galloping action. My only concern is actually his jockey Jaime Moore … I got butterflies when he kept looking over his shoulders in the Kingwell. I was worried about the horse being unbalanced by it.
“My only concern is actually his jockey Jaime Moore … I got butterflies when he kept looking over his shoulders in the Kingwell. I was worried about the horse being unbalanced by it.”
I agree – he looked bloody nervous. One look, ok, but he was spinning his head around like the girl from the Exorcist.
Mike – Any rationale behind that additional 3lb – apart from needing it to justify your earlier post
?BUY THE SUN
Beating horses rated 158 by 10 lengths and Champion Hurdle runner up rated 164 by 19 lengths, just a 2 lbs hike. Could Epatante beat those horses that easily? I appreciate the handicapper can’t go mad but still.
Ive seen posts say the 2nd and 3rd didnt run their races. What was Abracadabras and Sharjah meant to do? If they tried to keep up with Honeysuckle earlier in the race they wouldve paid the price later in the race like Sharjah did in the same race the previous year.
Honeysuckle does look the one to beat to me. Looks a better horse than last year, won at Cheltenham Festival before, hill no problem having won further than 2m, the mares’ allowance,and the usual watering of the track on the Tuesday if needed so that the ground isn’t too quick.
She can sit behind what looks like a potential hot gallop and show her class at the business end. That’s how i see it playing out in my mind anyhow.
Latest from the course from Simon Claisse…
“The Old course, which is the one we use on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the Cross Country on the Wednesday, is currently good to soft, soft in places and the New course too for Thursday and Friday is good to soft, soft in places.
“It’s where we would like to be with 13 days before we start racing.”
NH on Twitter
Having discussed plans with JP over the weekend we have decided that Buveur D’Air will NOT run at Cheltenham and instead will wait for Aintree. The extra distance will suit him well. He and Epatante are in very good form and we are very much looking forward to next week
The decision to pull Buveur D’Air could just be because they know he’s not good enough anymore but i’d like to think it translates as Epatante is burning up the gallops at home and BVD can’t live with her. Wishful thinking perhaps..
Hope Not So Sleepy is in one of his better moods and does not cause havoc like he did at Newcastle.
I’m hoping my 12s on Honeysuckle Antepost comes good. I feel pretty confident.
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
I’ve been all over Abacadabras since his Supreme 2nd to Shiskin. Although a messy race and both horses being hampered, he tanked through that race. I think he has had excuses this year, mucus in his trachea when behind Sharjah, could possibly have needed the run when 2nd to Honeysuckle after that. I’m sure this race will be run to suit and can easily see him punted off the boards again like last year. Especialky is Shiskin dots up, albeit over fences, earlier in the day. There have been question marks on this thread regarding most of the runners, To me, if you can forgive a couple of runs as explained, has as much chance as any given his course form last year. Think he’s a more solid proposition than Goshen. But that’s just an opinion.
I see Kealy has put abracadbras up in his column , he,s been my main play throughout the winter along with the silly 25-1 I got for Goshen , both e.w I reckon there the value
[/url]
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.