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It is so open, theres no doubt. Punjabi, undoubtedly, will be in there pitching at the death. Solwhit too, but I suspect he prefers the likes of Aintree, though I could easily be proven wrong in March!! I really hope Mullins doesn’t keep Mikael to hurdles, I just cant wait to see him go chasing, and I’d be surprised if he had the raw pace for the Champion Hurdle. I love Zaynar, but he really appeals to me as a stayer, and I would love to see him stepped up to 3 miles. After all, theres only 1 horse to beat in the Stayers, I think it would be worth a crack.
The 2 that appeal/interest me most at this stage are Go Native and Kyber Kim. When Kyber Kim was with Henderson, he was the favourite at one point for the Supreme Novices, but things just went astray, and the wheels came off rather spectacularly. However, I really believe that Twiston-Davies has found the key to this horse, and he is improving at a rate of knots. Greatwood winners have a good record in the Champion, and he has since beaten Celestial Halo on merit, and with plenty in hand. Personally, I will be staying on his right side.
Go Native was given no credit for his performance at Newcastle. Even J.P. McManus said that the slow pace was the same for every horse, and Go Native quickened up like a real good one. He has since proven that this performance was no fluke, and yet, he still has not got the credit and recognition he deserves. Take into account that we know he gets up the hill at Cheltenham, and his credentials are rock-solid. At this point, he is without doubt, the one with the form in the book, making him the one to beat.
Binocular puzzles and worries me. At one point, the world looked to be his oyster. Some experts said the slow pace at Newcastle was all against him, but that is really puzzling, given the flat speed he has/had, it shouldn’t of been a problem. I’ll stick my neck on the line now, and say that maybe this is actually how good Binocular is? Or there could be something deep-rooted causing him a problem. Either way, I could not be having him, based on what we’ve seen this season.
Whatever happens, its a race to savour, and to look forward to, best of luck to all!!!!
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Weird how we see things differently but I wouldn’t give Khyber King a cat in hell’s chance of winning the Champion Hurdle.
His win over Celestial Halo is why he is fancied and I reckon Celestial Halo has not gone the way PN expected. He ran like a flat horse last time and he’s already hinted the engine just isn’t responding to another season over hurdles.
I’d be very worried if I had backed him for the CH as there is seldom smoke without fire where PN is concerned.Go Native on form should be a 6/4 shot but he’s not because no one is taking him seriously. There have been many horses win trials impressively and run nowhere at Cheltenham. The main reason is they are ultra fit in comparison to others and by the time March comes round the rolls are most likely going to be reversed. It could be that he has improved since last season but unless the superior Hurricane Fly is the greatest hurdlers of all time his form remains suspect.In racing when it looks too good to be true it usually is.
The talk off Mickie D going for this is as thought BS.
Of the 2 stayer Solwhit and Zaynar I would prefer Solhwit. Zaynar is too inexperienced and doesn’t pick up as quickly as Solwhit. It may well not be a Champion Hurdle to be backing in AP. If it came up G/s to soft and stamina (1) plus speed (2) are in demand then Solwhit ticks all the right boxes.
Punjabi and Binocular couldn’t be in better hands. It won’t matter if neither wins before March because no one knows better than Nicky Henderson how to get them right on the day. He’s not going to come right out and say it but all he cares about is winning the Champion Hurdle and these horses are being trained for that day. If they pick up something along the way fine if they don’t so be it.
Still amazes me how he managed to win 3 Ch with See You Then who had really bad legs.
As the years have shown us the best form to judge a horse by in the Champion Hurdle is by Champion Hurdle form followed closely by Cheltenham festival form.
Only need to look back 2 years; Katchit ran plenty times but was never right. He ran at Newcastle and twice I was told the word on the course is don’t touch him…Harchibald beat him by over 3 lengths but come CH day he never seen the way Katchit went.
Only a few of us on here saw through what King was doing and backed Katchit although some for different reasons than others.
Mines were simple: I never believe what I see before Xmas when it comes to the Champion Hurdle. If a trainer or a jockey says his horse hasn’t come to himself I take heed. At a hint of an excuse I look at his very best form and forget the worst.
So for me the most obvious choice is to stick with Binocular and Punjabi to fight out the finish again with Solwhit the main danger. I omit Celestial halo because the hint is he could be gone which is not the same as saying he hasn’t come to himself.
In the likely event that Dunguib will head for the novice hurdle, I have whittled this down to three horses; Go Native, Solwhit and Zaynar.
I actually agree with big Mac, in that Go Native should be held up ala Sea Pigeon/Francome and pounce close home. Solwhit will need cut and if it becomes a real stamina test, Zaynar could take all the beating.
At the moment, Go Native is slightly ahead in my thinking, but that could change come March.
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Punjabi, for some inexplicable reason, would appear to be the forgotten horse and I can’t believe he’s still available at around 12/1.
As I said earlier in the thread he travelled like much the best horse in the Boylesports International, only tiring approaching the last having sat off what was a very generous pace. He will almost certainly have come on for the run – he was hardly knocked about either – and some seem to forget (myself included) that he’s only just turned seven.
He and Solwhit are the stand-outs for me at present.
A horse that must surely come into the reckoning particularly given a line on his form through Go Native has got to be MEDERMIT.
He has shown in two runs so far this year that he has improved over the summer (particularly impressive given the form the King horses were in). I expect him to be ridden closer to the pace in future and expect him to beat Punjabi in The Welsh Champion on Saturday before shortening for the Main feature at HQ in March.
He has shown he handles the Cheltenham hill and the likely good or g/s ground will hold no worries.
The best price on offer is 33/1 available from VC, BET 365, Blue Square, Paddy Power, Stan James, Coral and William Hill.
Have to agree peter, on a line through Go Native he’s got every chance. The King horses were running septicly for a long time there before Christmas, but seem to be coming into form again now. But you have to ask the question, can he raverse the form with Go Native
Medermit has the look of an exposed horse on his two runs this season (granted, King wasn’t firing at the time of his first outing), and I couldn’t have him. I’m still not entirely convinced about the merit of Go Native’s wins in the two trials, and can’t have him either.
There are four or five in the market who appeal to me for different reasons, but the one I keep going back to is Solwhit. Has stamina and a turn of foot, and I think the race will be run to suit him.
but the one I keep going back to is Solwhit. Has stamina and a turn of foot, and I think the race will be run to suit him.
If the ground was heavy,he would be 2/1fav,but it cant possibly be! So i dissagree most strongly!The race is run on the 1st day of the festival,its going to be goodish ground,in a match you would probably go 4/5 Solwhit v Evs Go Native. I bet you an Ev £50 Go Native finishes in front of Solwhit big boy!
but the one I keep going back to is Solwhit. Has stamina and a turn of foot, and I think the race will be run to suit him.
If the ground was heavy,he would be 2/1fav,but it cant possibly be! So i dissagree most strongly!The race is run on the 1st day of the festival,its going to be goodish ground,in a match you would probably go 4/5 Solwhit v Evs Go Native. I bet you an Ev £50 Go Native finishes in front of Solwhit big boy!
Is this you trying to win your Mikael money back already?
OK, you’re on. An even £50 in a match between your Go Native and my Solwhit – whichever finishes nearest the front in the Champion Hurdle wins the bet. NRNB.
Regarding Binocular, doesnt Henderson seem to be really puzzled about him? He evidently expected more so far this season, and he really doesnt know why hes not met expectations. I cant see him even being placed in March, but I have been wrong before, and Im sure Il be wrong again!!!
Is this you trying to win your Mikael money back already?
Not at all Soldier,if Mikael should run in any other race than the RSA at Cheltenham,I"m stuffed! The swing of this surprisingly tentative pendulum is in your favour at the moment!You couldn"t have written the script any better,particularly with you announcing your bet on him to win the Champion hurdle prior to Mr Mullins saying it is a possibility!This bet is basically replacing our Celestial v Hurricane bet, the difference this time though is they are both about the same price,unlike mine being 14/1 at the time and yours 4/1 before! It gives me an interest in the race other than just Celestial Halo!I will say this though,the ground will determine which one of us wins this one!Good luck!
Every Zaynar race he has hit the front early and absolutely nothing has past him yet when he has got to the front, I can see the likes of Go Native and Binocular cantering by Zaynar yet they could find absolutely nothing if Zaynar runs them into the ground like every other horse he has faced.
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I wouldn’t get too carried away by the horses Zaynar’s beaten just yet. His long odds-on defeat of the 145 rated Cape Tribulation told us nothing, and he beat a Karabak out for a warm-up over a distance well short of his best previously. His Festival defeat of Walkon is none too dusty, but at least a stone shy of what he needs to win a normal Champion Hurdle.
His trainer also seems not so sure about his best distance either, given that after the Relkeel he was ‘definitely’ a CH horse, and that was to be his next run, whereas now he is thinking about running him in one of the trials – possibly to establish which way to go?
He’s definitely a high class horse, but thus far has had a far from typical preparation for an embryonic Champion Hurdler.I have to say that this is the most difficult champion hurdle i have ever seen, however my thoughts on the leading contenders are:
Binocular: has run twice at Cheltenham and beaten both times, given that he is not performing at the same level as last year I would not back him at any price.
Solwhit: Take out his one defeat in a false run fighting fifth and he would be the 7/2 favourite, he will be there with every chance and impossible to rule him out of the equation.
Celestial Halo: I backed this horse for last years champion hurdle when Binocular beat him easily at Kempton. This horse is made for Cheltenham, he has run below par for the past 2 seasons prior to Cheltenham but Paul Nichols will have him spot on for the day as he did for the Triumph and Champion Hurdle. At 10/1 this is an each way steal and cannot have him out of the frame.
Punjabi: Thought he was fortunate to win last seasons champion hurdle….everything went right for him. He will remain in double figures even if he wins Welsh Champion hurdle because Barry Geraghty will be riding Zaynar. Cannot see him finishing better than 4th.
Zaynar: This is a horse of immense potential, has thrown in the odd sloppy jump but if he is within a length of the leaders at the last he will be very difficult to beat. When Nicky Henderson said "I’m convinced he is a champion hurdle horse" that was enough for me. When he wins his trial over 2 miles he will be down to 3/1 fav.
Go Native: Despite winning 2 trials in good style he is still not favourite, I think his price will drift out to around 10/1 on the day and he will find it dificult to confirm the fighting fifth form.
Starluck: no chance on last years triumph form, back him for next years Christmas Hurdle at Kempton, he would have won the last one but for a bad jump mid race.
Khyber Kim: Was impressive in beating Celestial Halo, however he has looked impressive in the past only to throw in a bad performance. Only if he can show some consistency and win a trial in good style could he be considered for the CH and even then I wouldn’t back him.
Sentry Duty: Same as with Khyber Kim.
Voler la Vedette & Quevega: These 2 should fight out the finish of the mares hurdle.
Summary: 1st Zaynar, 2nd Solwhit, 3rd Celestial Halo
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