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Thoughts on Starluck?
Hi All, i’m new to the racingforum and have found some intersting opinions from what i’ve read so far. I think Starluck is great value for a horse that pushed Go Native all the way at Kempton. Yeah, you might say Kempton is a completely different track to Cheltenham, which of course it is and Starluck died on the hill last year, but i think he’s a year older now and has ran positively there this year allbeit against poorer opposition but still looked good, and keeps going from strength to strength so i think great e/w bet at least. Though as has been said a few times…it really is wide open.
Another positive for Starluck is that the race is being ran on the less testing old course rather than the new one which he ran on in the triumph. Might have a saver on him after my main bet on Go Native
My main concern about Starluck is the fact he ran in The Triumph Hurdle last year… I remember Fulke Walwyn defending his decision to run Kirriemuir in the Champion Hurdle as a 4-Y-O saying he didn’t want to run such a good young horse in a race (Triumph) that would leave a mark on him and that he’d come out of the Champion a lot quicker than The Triumph.
Kirriemuir was 3rd in the CH as a 4-Y-O and won it the next yearCan anyone recall the last horse to win The Champion Hurdle the year following having contested The Triumph apart from Katchit
Persian War in 1968 I believe. (Though Kribensis did the double his CH win was two seasons later).
Persian War in 1968 I believe. (Though Kribensis did the double his CH win was two seasons later).
I rest my case, Persian War was probably as good as any Champion Hurdler in living memory, that’s how hard it is to win at five after contesting the Triumph
I rest my case, Persian War was probably as good as any Champion Hurdler in living memory, that’s how hard it is to win at five after contesting the Triumph
Celestial Halo came within a whisker of the double last year and Katchit was one of the worst Champion Hurdlers in living memory.
I rest my case, Persian War was probably as good as any Champion Hurdler in living memory, that’s how hard it is to win at five after contesting the Triumph
Celestial Halo came within a whisker of the double last year and Katchit was one of the worst Champion Hurdlers in living memory.
I don’t agree. Katchit was a really classy horse as a 4 y/o and 5 y/o.
Champion Hurdle The Contenders:
Not convinced over
Go Native
‘s ability to get up the hill. Did win the Supreme last year. Going supremely well rounding the turn, looked home and hosed before having his lead cut back hand over fist. Had Medermit not been hampered at the last, could’ve been a different result. Won the Fighting Fifth, easily quickening clear after funereal gallop. Much better suited by the test of speed than (amongst others) Solwhit in third. Kempton’s Christmas Hurdle is always a speed test. Came there cruising once more, yet struggled to hold on from another speedster Starluck. Whether it is idling or stamina, can’t get away from the fact Go Native is a weak finisher in truly run races. Trainer hasn’t been pleased with watering despite the Newcastle run being on soft; this suggests more stamina worries. Everyone wishes connections well for their possible million pound bonus, but his current price seems to drastically over-estimate his chance.
Starluck
won his Cheltenham prep on the all-weather at Kempton, proving well-being if nothing else. On the face of it is good value. Improved short-head second to Champion favourite Go Native in Christmas Hurdle (level weights), in front just after the line. Yet is a much bigger price. However, Kempton’s sharp track and test of speed suits him down to the ground. Looked like winning Timeform Radio Hurdle at Haydock, cruising clear before tied up badly as stamina began to take effect. Beaten by Mr Thriller on very soft ground. Also travelled extremely well until the hill, when third in last year’s Triumph. Won at Cheltenham on reappearance, but that was a comparatively slowly run race against inferior rivals, on good-firm ground (speed test). Everything we know about Starluck suggests he won’t get home unless it is a slowly run Champion (unlikely).
Solwhit
is most consistent (taking out Newcastle’s slowly run farce). Again found plenty under pressure to win the Irish Champion. Suited by a test of stamina at 2m. Looked to have a great chance until scoping badly on Monday. It’s going to be a hard job to get him over this and back to full fitness in just 8 days. Unlikely starter.
Binocular
is also under a cloud with muscle problems being diagnosed. There must be a reason for disappointing runs this term; racing as if something is hurting. Not jumping with his usual fluency on any start. Nowhere near best to win at Ascot latest run. Also below form third to Go Native in Christmas hurdle. Short priced third to Punjabi in last year’s Champion after preparation disrupted by snow. Interesting if back to best, but that seems a big IF. Announced as a non-runner but has made some progress and now a possible runner. Is still available at much bigger odds with exchanges which still suggests all is not 100%.
Punjabi
has not shown his form this term either. Boylesports run easily excused when fourth behind Khyber Kim, as never at his best fresh. But why was he subsequently beaten by Medermit at Haydock.?Alan King’s gelding did get 4 lbs but won by a comfortable four lengths. Afsoun, who is nowhere near as good as he used to be, only 2 lengths further back getting 8 lbs. The soft going can not be held as an excuse, as was only just beaten by Solwhit at Punchestown on very soft. Found an ideal opportunity to get back to winning ways by the BHA at Kempton. Won in a canter but even so, did not need to be anywhere near best. Second, Border Castle coming back from a 21 month absence and third Supernoverre hopelessly outclassed and only beaten 19 lengths. However, it’s true to say Punjabi is at his very best in the spring, it’s quite possible he’ll be back to full fitness to defend his crown.
The one who split Binocular and Punjabi in last year’s Champion was
Celestial Halo
. Made most of the running there. Does need a sound pace at 2 miles, but all the other front runners were soundly beaten and probably went too fast, too soon. Winner and third came from further back. Can be marked up for that and put up possibly the best performance this season when giving 20 lbs and a 10 length beating to Totesport Trophy fourth and easy big Ascot handicap winner Mamlook. Celestial Halo went on to be beaten by Khyber Kim at Cheltenham in the Boylesports International. Lost by 2 ¼ lengths trying to give 4 lbs so still came out the best horse at the weights. However, ran very disappointingly in the Irish Champion, a long way below form in fourth. May be the ground was a little too testing, but it wasn’t that different to the Boylesports. Possibly not over his exertions there and has been inconsistent. Yet goes well fresh and will have had 7 weeks off when lining up this time. Is by Galileo, who’s progeny are often disadvantaged by very soft conditions. Trainer did say in a Cheltenham Preview “Celestial Halo has come in his coat and looks fabulous and hoping for better ground”. Whether that means he looks fabulous, but hasn’t shown it on the gallops is the question. Not many prominent runners to take him on this year and 14/1 does look excellent value.
Khyber Kim
is the surprise package this year. Saw his first ever start over hurdles for Nicky Henderson at Newbury, and so taken with it even backed him at three figures for the Champion that same year. Then came disappointments and ran no sort of race in the Supreme behind Captain Cee Bee. Looking either of poor temperament or something hurting, though did achieve a fourth to Pierrot Lunaire at Aintree.
Reappeared at Newbury and should have won Gerry Fielden Hurdle, rider lost a stirrup at the last hurdle. Again did not reproduce that form. Even had one start over fences and blinkered (too free) in the County Hurdle.
Ran encouragingly in the Swinton after little over a month off (from another Aintree run). Given too much to do when fifth. Six month break followed before the Greatwood at Cheltenham. By now it seemed being fresh was important. Won well, coming through from the back under 11 stones 9 lbs. Only just over a month later he won the Boylesports, again at Cheltenham from Celestial Halo and Medermit. Admittedly getting 4 lbs from the former, doing nothing wrong again in the finish. So the best fresh argument is a little dented. Can say he’s at least equally effective fresh, this is going to be his first start since December 12th. All three wins on soft, though unlucky second on good-soft and fourth at Aintree on good. Good second at Newmarket on the flat on good-firm. Khyber Kim’s three wins are before January, but local tracks just as likely to be significant. Newbury being close to Nicky Henderson’s Lambourn base and Cheltenham close to Twister’s yard at Naunton Gloucestershire. May be I am looking too closely, he’s improving and seemingly now of equable temperament. 9/1 looks well worth chancing.Medermit
was a little unlucky in the Supreme last year. Outpaced before staying on, just failing to get up. With winner Go Native stopping, had it not been for being slightly hampered at the last may have just got there. Both have improved since. Encouraging third to Khyber Kim in the Greatwood when stable in poor form. Comes out same as the winner at the weights. Then third to the same horse in the Boylesports. 5 ¼ lengths behind at level weights. 3 lengths behind Celestial Halo (who gave 4 lbs), but 8 in front of an unfit Punjabi. Would’ve done a little better too, but for a mistake 2 out. Showed a surprising amount of pace there and at Haydock (both on soft). May struggle though, back on a sounder surface. Again getting 4 lbs from a below form Punjabi 4 lengths behind, yet won with quite a bit in hand. Problem is Afsoun keeps the form down in third, unless you believe that horse was far better there than any other run this season. Medermit must be respected, is improving and Alan King’s stable is in much better form now. However, it’s difficult to see why he should be shorter than Khyber Kim in the betting.
It’s difficult to know what to make of
Zaynar
‘s form. Lost unbeaten run, long way below form when length second at 1/14 at Kelso, trying to give 8lbs to Quweto. In trouble some way out and often goes through a flat spot in his races. Did so on penultimate start, not needing to be at his best to beat Cape Tribulation in Relkeel. Seemed to improve when beating Karabak on reappearance, giving him 2 lbs and a 6 length beating. However, Karabak’s stable was in poor form at the time and of those taking Zaynar on, only weak finisher Red Moloney in third probably ran to form. Zaynar has not run at 2 miles since winning the Triumph in cheek pieces last year. Remember him working poorly at Kempton prior to that success. Headgear reapplied needs to have the same effect this time around, which is a distinct possibility.
The outsiders
to follow nearer the time.
Value Is EverythingPersian War in 1968 I believe. (Though Kribensis did the double his CH win was two seasons later).
I rest my case, Persian War was probably as good as any Champion Hurdler in living memory, that’s how hard it is to win at five after contesting the Triumph
With the introduction of the Fred Winter, the Triumph is a lot easier to win these days. A totally different race in fact. Does not leave the scar it once did. All stats before the Fred Winter’s introduction are null and void.
Value Is EverythingPaul had to hit the front way too soon last year because he was afraid Dicky Johnson on Copper Bleu was going to cut him off on the inside. He had to go when he did but it nearly cost him the race in the end given how badly he idled up the hill. Davy Condon was guilty of similar at Kempton which allowed Starluck to come back at him. Had he waited another half-furlong to produce his challenge he would have won going away and would now be a 7/4 fav.
Carberry will have to produce a similar ride to Harchibald in ’05 and there’s no better man for the assignment. He has said that Go Native has more of a turn of foot than Harchi and is a stouter stayer – he always felt Harchi struggled to truly stay two miles. Go Native has no problems going past horses but he does prick his ears and ease up after he hits the front. If Paul waits until halfway up the run in to put his head in front he will win cosily IMO.
Like all of Meade’s hurdlers he is a terrific fast jumper and as long as they don’t feck up the watering at Cheltenham, he’ll arrive there full of running.
Imperial call,
If Go native idles because he’s in front, then why did he not idle when going clear in the Fighting Fifth?
In every race where he’s tired at the end of the race, he’s idled. In every slowly run race where he’s not tired, he’s
not
idled.
I’d say he deserves to be favourite, but not as far clear as the betting has him.
Value Is EverythingImperial call,
If Go native idles because he’s in front, then why did he not idle when going clear in the Fighting Fifth?
In every race where he’s tired at the end of the race, he’s idled. In every slowly run race where he’s not tired, he’s
not
idled.
I’d say he deserves to be favourite, but not as far clear as the betting has him.
Going on what Paul Carberry said at a preview last night when comparing him to Harchibald – he stays better than Harchi who never truly stayed 2 miles. He also reckons he’s got more heart. I don’t think horses who are short of stamina win races like the Supreme Novices Ginge. He probably doesn’t stay as well as the likes of Medermit and Punjabi but his jumping and ability to travel so sweetly will bring him into it.
He appears to me to be just a typical Meade, quare rogue of a horse. That would be a slight concern but Noel has been easier on his horses during the winter in recent years and it is benefitting them then in the spring. He should be fresh as a daisy after his two and a half month break.
I still can’t believe Murphy’s decision to send VLV to the Mares race given how easily she beat GN up the North last year (granted GN had excuses). If she doesn’t settle I don’t think she’ll get home against Quevega. She pulled hard at Leopardstown and surely the end to end gallop of the CH would suit her better.
Thoughts on Starluck?
Hi All, i’m new to the racingforum and have found some intersting opinions from what i’ve read so far. I think Starluck is great value for a horse that pushed Go Native all the way at Kempton. Yeah, you might say Kempton is a completely different track to Cheltenham, which of course it is and Starluck died on the hill last year, but i think he’s a year older now and has ran positively there this year allbeit against poorer opposition but still looked good, and keeps going from strength to strength so i think great e/w bet at least. Though as has been said a few times…it really is wide open.
Hello there, always nice to have a new member.
I,ve been struggling with this race too, although for a while now I’ve also been thinking last years novices might find the top three from last year too good when conditions are different. Therefore I’ll probably have a go on Punjabi.
Starluck could well be the live outsider in this. He’s had a different kind of build up this year, nothing flashy like his novice year but instead has been quietly getting better and better and on unsuitable ground. I’m not really one of those who think Kempton is an easy track either. Yes its flat but when there’s a decent pace on, you still need a horse that stays.
Also worth remembering the triumph is run on the new course with only 2 flights in the last 7 furlongs which may have counted against him as they generally quicken a long way from home. Plus the champion is over 1/2 a furlong shorter.
There are worst bets out there thats for sure.From what’s happemning on the exchanges, it looks as if Binocular will take his chance. Shortened from around 15/1 to 10/1 this morning. That’s not much bigger than the price he was before being taken out of the betting.
Fingers crossed Fist!
Value Is Everything17 horses left in the race, No Dunguib, no Voler La Vadette, might as well be no Solwhit, even if he runs which looks highly unlikely, the race suddenly looks very poor, I wonder if the connections of For Bill are regretting not entering the mare?
Looks like The Irish 2nd XI v. The Best Of Some Very Average UK Hurdlers, quite a few of this year’s novices would look sound bets in this field.
Go Native will start an realistically priced favourite but I’ll be looking at one of three, Won In The Dark, Jumbo Rio or Donnas Palm for EW value and as potential winners. The last named was originally rated by connections to be a much better horse than Go Native and, if one ignores the few months when he was well out of sorts, his form before and since is terrific. Much the same applies to Won In The Dark, now looks back to near his best form of 2008 while Jumbo Rio’s French form is top class but 5-Y-Olds rarely win The CH
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