- This topic has 880 replies, 116 voices, and was last updated 14 years, 8 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Not SUCH a muddle…..
The Irish horses run for the first half dozen or so places, the UK horses play follow my leader at a respectable distance in deference to their obvious inferiority.
I can’t see a UK runner that I’d back to beat either Donnas Palm or Won In The DarkI can, and i have backed him.
He will be there or there abouts will Medermit.
Not SUCH a muddle…..
The Irish horses run for the first half dozen or so places, the UK horses play follow my leader at a respectable distance in deference to their obvious inferiority.
I can’t see a UK runner that I’d back to beat either Donnas Palm or Won In The DarkRubbish form before cheltenham can mean nothing, horses like punjabi and celestial halo have been aimed all season at this race you’ve not seen there form yet,
Medermit was a neck behind him at Cheltenham last season, and that was with Medermit being blocked off in running after the last flight.
He will be there or there abouts, which is why he is my only bet for Cheltenham so far, never usually bet AP but this looks a great bet.
Great to see you get invoved Ante-Post Gareth,If Medermit is a length off Celestial Halo and Go Native at the last i will be a very happy man!
I think Solwhit and Medermit are the two to be on in this race. Solwhit has the most solid form of everything, it’s hard to fault him.
Medermit was beaten twice by Khyber Kim when Alan King’s stable were in poor form. He looks the pick of the English in my eyes.
Also, Sublimity is overpriced at 22/1. I’ve backed him the past two years where he appeared not to stay. But he has had a wind op since and hasn’t finished that far behind Solwhit on his previous two starts. He’s half a stone better atleast on decent ground and he could well outrun his odds.
the more and more I try to solve this puzzle I come to the conclusion that last years supreme holds all the answers. Go native and medermit this year have had mixed fortunes though the latters last race showed what medermit can really do.I think that go native has the beating of medermit again. solwit is a bigger threat and will win this years c h if the ground is any way soft, however if ground remains good to soft (as is he norm) then I think it will be a shootout between last years 1 2 in the s hurdle.
1 horse that worries me and could upset the applecart is kyberkim who has won twice this season over c & d.
the race this year is a real puzzle and the more I try to study it the more confused I become. however whatever horse I do back ill be definitely doubling it up with super dunguib in the supreme novices…let the games begin!- Total Posts 17716
I think Solwhit and Medermit are the two to be on in this race. Solwhit has the most solid form of everything, it’s hard to fault him.
Medermit was beaten twice by Khyber Kim when Alan King’s stable were in poor form. He looks the pick of the English in my eyes.
Also, Sublimity is overpriced at 22/1. I’ve backed him the past two years where he appeared not to stay. But he has had a wind op since and hasn’t finished that far behind Solwhit on his previous two starts. He’s half a stone better atleast on decent ground and he could well outrun his odds.
I think they operated on the wrong end of the horse if they want him to win the Champion Hurdle by improving his wind
……..should be 1000/1 in the win only market……you either stay or you don’t stay and no wind op will cure that.- Total Posts 17716
double post.
I think at 8/1 and what happened to Zaynar he looks real value, I am hoping he’d g into double figures, Go Native hardly beat Starluck, and Zaynar pasted him, what happened to Zaynar could of happened to anything in that Chanpion Hurdle line up, I mean Solwhit was given a shock defeat last year when he was 1/3, and it paid to look past Solwhits defeat when he defeated Punjabi so it may pay to write of Zaynars defeat to Quwetwo, Punjabi turned over a misreable defeat into Champion Hurdle victory so it happens.
Most horses in the CH line up bar Khyber Kim have had their disappointments, surprised no one has really mentioned Khyber Kim, in the International Kings horses were coming back to form then so that defeat seemed genuine to me.
the more and more I try to solve this puzzle I come to the conclusion that last years supreme holds all the answers.
what about last years triumph?
starluck was only a gnats piss from beating go native in the christmas hurdle, walkon is rated much higher than katchit by king and choc, mourad and reve de sivola are no slouches either
still zaynar for me
I mean Solwhit was given a shock defeat last year when he was 1/3, and it paid to look past Solwhits defeat when he defeated Punjabi…..
To be fair, Solwhit had already won the G1 Aintree Hurdle before he faced Punjabi at Punchestown, so it was much less of a leap of faith than backing Zaynar would be.
still zaynar for me
Me too.
OK, I was disappointed that Zaynar got defeated at Kelso but its not as though he was beaten by several lengths and I think the ground was horrible to say the least.
Far too soon for anyone to write off Zaynar I think.
There seems to be an abumdance of rose tinted binoculars trained on Zaynar
He was less than impressive against Cape Tribulation then gets done by a novice chaser retrurning after a years absence, doesn’t scream "Champion" to me
I think at 8/1 and what happened to Zaynar he looks real value, I am hoping he’d g into double figures, Go Native hardly beat Starluck,
Starluck barely stays 2 miles even at courses like Kempton
and Zaynar pasted him, what happened to Zaynar could of happened to anything in that Chanpion Hurdle line up, I mean Solwhit was given a shock defeat last year when he was 1/3,
That was a real muddle of a race like the Fighting Fifth, both were run at a hack canter followed by sprint finishes, the Kelso race was a very true pace, Quwetwo is a very good horse but he wouldn’t win the CH
and it paid to look past Solwhits defeat when he defeated Punjabi so it may pay to write of Zaynars defeat to Quwetwo, Punjabi turned over a misreable defeat into Champion Hurdle victory so it happens.
Most horses in the CH line up bar Khyber Kim have had their disappointments, surprised no one has really mentioned Khyber Kim, in the International Kings horses were coming back to form then so that defeat seemed genuine to me.
None of this thread will be worth a bent farthing if Dunguib shows up
Zaynar beat Cape Tribulation on the bridle, how is that struggling? He beat Karabak with much more ease than Big Bucks too from what I remember.
Also Starluck ran in the Christmas Hurdle not the Fighting Fifth, so it remains that Zaynar gave Starluck a beating, when it comes to the big race he will be on his game and will be hard to beat I think. I think that would be correct of a Henderson charge. It also should pay to see that Zaynar has been giving weight away to most of his rivals this year which is a tough ask for a young horse.
Zaynar beat Cape Tribulation on the bridle,
Once he eventually got past the beast,
how is that struggling?
watch the replay, at one point before the last it looked as if he wasn’t going to make it
He beat Karabak with much more ease than Big Bucks too from what I remember.
Also Starluck ran in the Christmas Hurdle not the Fighting Fifth,
You’ve misread my post, I didn’t say I say that he ran in The Fighting Fifth, I was comparing the way that race was run at to Solwhit’s defeat last year
so it remains that Zaynar gave Starluck a beating, when it comes to the big race he will be on his game and will be hard to beat I think. I think that would be correct of a Henderson charge. It also should pay to see that Zaynar has been giving weight away to most of his rivals this year which is a tough ask for a young horse.
I’m not saying he’s not a fine horse, far from it, indeed I’d bet money he’ll easily be the first UK trained runner home, unfortunately that’s unlikely to guaranteed a 1-2-3 place in this year’s field
I’d be stunned if Zaynar’s the best of the English. He’s not even the best in the stable.
NJH has purposely kept him away from 2 milers. He’d have got murdered at Newcastle and Kempton and while that’s not drastically relevant for Cheltenham it points to how he has so far been asked to avoid a ‘proper’ race. He then gets sent to Kelso, on desperate ground, against a big strong horse (and a good one but….) and he never even threatens to get past him. He’s slapped down the neck at halfway, niggled and never happy. Henderson then says he "didn’t need to run him, could have gone straight there" despite then saying he needed the run, having a major blow afterwards and gulping for air mid-race.
It’s perhaps prudent not to write him off, after all Punjabi was readied on the day, but he was a bruiser anyway, and had run in and threatened to win the Xmas Hurdle before his prep. Zaynar’s hardly been helped mentally with his last race.
He could still win, but on form and preparation it’s extremely unlikely imv.
If Zaynar has no chance then Starluck who was well beaten by Zaynar in the Triumph has no chance. If Starluck can run Go Native to a short head then Go Native has no chance. If Go Native has no chance then those behind him at Newcastle (Solwhit Sublimity & Won in The Dark) have no chance. If Solwhit has no chance then those he has beat (Donna’s Palm, Celestial Halo, Punjabi & Medermit) have no chance.
So who does that leave?
Khyber Kim
But Khyber Kim was beated 18 lengths by Sentry Duty who was only receiving 1 pound and Sentry Duty isn’t even entered for the Champion Hurdle.
Of course you could argue things the other way round, many are keen on the chances of Go Native so if he has a chance then Zaynar must have a better chance as he beat Starluck by further.
The fact is this years champion hurdle is as clear as mud with the first 9 in the betting holding some kind of chance on various form lines.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.