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I’m still puzzled why people think the slowly run Fighting Fifth suited the winner – Go Native won a furiously ran Supreme, i’d say he won the Fighting despite the crawl not because of it.
Looks the likeliest winner to me, but as usual its very competitive and open looking.
I’m still puzzled why people thing the slowly run Fighting Fifth suited the winner – Go Native won a furiously ran Supreme, i’d say he won the Fighting despite the crawl not because of it.
Looks the likeliest winner to me, but as usual its very competitive and open looking.
Exactly the point that I was about to write! People seem to crab the form of the fighting fifth, saying it didnt suit Solwhit. But Go Native is just as well suited off a fast pace as Solwhit, considering last years supreme. I think that ties in course form too. He will also be better suited by likely ground conditions.
So to my mind, Go native has Solwhit covered on Form, course form, Ground, Run of the race, Jockey, turn of foot. Thats just about everything I think.
My problem with The Fighting Fifth form is only two horses in the race needed 2 miles at the very least, Solwhit and Al Elie, both got done for toe after entering the straight.
While I agree that Go Native will be better suited to a fast face rather than a crawl and a sprint, he would be far less inconvenienced by that sort of race than Solwhit was/would be.
The only other defeat Solwhit suffered in the last two seasons was a similarily run tactical race.This might all be irrelevant as I can see hints of "The Champion Hurdle" in Philip Fenton’s lastest comments re Dunguib’s Festival target
Dunguib is obviously exciting but has displayed nothing like the form of the other principals. For every Istabraq there are a dozen Black Jack Ketchums who look world beaters in weak novice divisions and flop in open company.
My other problem with Go Native winning the CH is this.
Is Voler La Vadette good enough to win this year’s renewal by 13 length?
Much as I love the mare I’d say no, although I do think she’s probably just about good enough to win but not by anything like as far as that.
Which begs another question, which horse is the less exposed and therefore the most likey to show more improvement on known form, VLV or GN?
So where does this leave GN? Probably out of the frame in The CH.Dunguib is obviously exciting but has displayed nothing like the form of the other principals. For every Istabraq there are a dozen Black Jack Ketchums who look world beaters in weak novice divisions and flop in open company.
I never expected to see a sentance with the words "Dunguib" "Istabraq" and "Black Jack Ketchum" all in it
You are making the assumption Go Native was 100% in his beating by the mare. Not one i’d agree with, not one Noel Meade agrees with either.
Surely the slating of Binocular on here is a bit harsh? The horse has run pretty poorly twice this year, and a problem has since come to light explain these poor runs. Case Closed?
If no problem had been found, then we could have all slate the horse for performing poorly. But a muscle problem will have surely affected him – most notably his jumping, which is his greatest asset.
As for the race itself now? Surely Go Native is the logical selection. Has shown versatiliy winning races at a crawl and showing a great turn of foot, and also travelling beautifully off a fast pace at last years Festival. A course and distance winner, versatile with the ground, I can’t see him anywhere else other than the winners enclosure.
That’s unless Dunguib runs!
Wellycod
There’s only one entry in this years race with a
real turn of foot ….Voler La Vadette
…. and she’s unlikey to run. I feel Solwhit will wear then down up the hill coming off a strong pace
You seem very keen to point out that the fighting fifth was a 4 furlong sprint. Well Go Native came from last to first in that 4 furlong sprint, easily going past Sublimity, Solwhit and Binocular who are hardly slow horses. I’d call that a real turn of foot wouldn’t you?
So how would you describe this…………
When Go Native and Voler La Vadette came to the last at Down Royal both were on the bit ahead of the hard ridden and very useful Luska Lad. Barry Geaghty only had to shake the reins and the mare bolted clear winning eased down by 13 lengths. That was in a true run race.Surely the slating of Binocular on here is a bit harsh? The horse has run pretty poorly twice this year, and a problem has since come to light explain these poor runs. Case Closed?
If no problem had been found, then we could have all slate the horse for performing poorly. But a muscle problem will have surely affected him – most notably his jumping, which is his greatest asset.
As for the race itself now? Surely Go Native is the logical selection. Has shown versatiliy winning races at a crawl and showing a great turn of foot, and also travelling beautifully off a fast pace at last years Festival. A course and distance winner, versatile with the ground, I can’t see him anywhere else other than the winners enclosure.
I was not one of those who slated Binocular, I don’t think last years CH was as hot as this years. What I can’t work out is how Go Native’s form against a 90% Binocular stacks up against his Irish form. I’d say it puts several ahead of him
That’s unless Dunguib runs!
Wellycod
There’s only one entry in this years race with a
real turn of foot ….Voler La Vadette
…. and she’s unlikey to run. I feel Solwhit will wear then down up the hill coming off a strong pace
You seem very keen to point out that the fighting fifth was a 4 furlong sprint. Well Go Native came from last to first in that 4 furlong sprint, easily going past Sublimity, Solwhit and Binocular who are hardly slow horses. I’d call that a real turn of foot wouldn’t you?
So how would you describe this…………
When Go Native and Voler La Vadette came to the last at Down Royal both were on the bit ahead of the hard ridden and very useful Luska Lad. Barry Geaghty only had to shake the reins and the mare bolted clear winning eased down by 13 lengths. That was in a true run race.Its funny how you can completly crab the form of the fighting fifth, yet you keep referring to this totally irrelevant race where Go Native was unfit and hated the ground. Changing the going to good/soft alone would account for a 13l improvement in Go Native. And VLV is a good horse in her own right.
You said that no horse bar VLV had a real turn of foot. I think Go Native proved at Cheltenham, Newcastle, and Kempton that he has a very real turn of foot. Are you still maintaining that Go Native hasn’t a real turn of foot?
Maybe he just needs to be on a decent surface and be halfways fit to show it.
Shaund
Why do Go Native supporters maintain that although he was fit to win a month before Down Royal and fit to win Fight5th a month after, he wasn’t fit at Down Royal on the day that doesn’t fit the scenario they like to be fact?.
What was Noel Meade doing in ther interim letting him get fat and idle after he’d got him ready to win a few weeks earlier then putting the horse on a crash course to fitness so he could win the race that so impressed you all? I don’t think so!
Chelt,
I’m as big a fan of Voler as anyone, and I mean anyone, but I very much doubt she’s 13 lengths better than Go Native. Imo she’s as good if not better, but not 13 lengths better. It’s likely that Noel Meade let Go Native down after Newcastle and thought that this might be an easy race in preparation for Kempton.
Don’t get me wrong, if they were to meet again over 2m on any ground in any sort of race, I’d have my dosh on Hennessy!!
Watch out for her sister, she should be out soon and is very useful.
I watched a rerun of the race there. Carberry didn’t try a leg on Go Native once it was apparent he wasn’t going to win and it was a generous 13l given to say the least.
But maybe VLV is the better horse, so maybe connections should be aiming her here. But it doesnt seem they are, and besides her, Go Native seems to have the rest of the field covered in all aspects.
There is one exception to that – Zaynar. He comes from a different form line and seems to be the joker in the pack. I can see myself having a sizeable bet on Go Native in the w/o market, in the liklihood that Zaynar will go of favourite.
VLV was also getting (I think) 9lbs when they met.
I really don’t know what to make of Go Native. The way he was despatched by Hurricane Fly last season, just makes me sceptical about the amount of improvement he may have made this season. I also am quite confident that he won’t find as much off the bridle as expected – he didn’t the twice against HF, or against VLV(admittedly, he wasn’t beaten-up behind the mare), and given his sometime tendency to stop when in front (Supreme Novices and Christmas Hurdle), I have to be against him in the Champion Hurdle.
I’m prepared to forgive Solwhit the Newcastle run, as I think the race can’t be entirely trusted, and whilst I’d prefer soft ground for him, I still think he can win it on quicker. Has the least question marks against him, imo.
1/14 Zaynar gets beat by Quwetwo, well I never.
Two extremely short odds-on horses getting beat in a week. Having not seen the race, was Zaynar beaten fair and square by the Johnson horse or was something amiss?
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