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"aston" wrote: I like Clonbannan Lad a lot in this. Have a look at his last run, where he smashed a well touted Mullins horse. Although both wins came on soft ground he won a point on good ground. I presume they will stick with Mikey O’Connor, and this is my main concern. A decent jock, but I would prefer to see a strong pro in the saddle as the race can get very rough and a calm confident head is a plus. 16/1 is generous. He would be half that at least if in a bigger yard, based on what he has shown.
I wouldn’t think he’ll be jocked off given that he also trains the horse.
Barry Geraghty has nicked the mount on John Ferguson’s New Year’s Eve in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper from Jack Quinlan .
What a shame, he’s a really good young jockey but I suppose that makes my mind up for me, I’d NYE shortlisted for a wee while
Sir Johnston looks the ew valueI like Clonbannan Lad a lot in this. Have a look at his last run, where he smashed a well touted Mullins horse. Although both wins came on soft ground he won a point on good ground. I presume they will stick with Mikey O’Connor, and this is my main concern. A decent jock, but I would prefer to see a strong pro in the saddle as the race can get very rough and a calm confident head is a plus. 16/1 is generous. He would be half that at least if in a bigger yard, based on what he has shown.
That last run was over 2m3f on very soft ground. Add to that Mullins took 2m to get the favourite settled. Clonbanan Lad is a nice prospect for 3m novice hurdles on soft ground next season but 16/1 is no value at all. If he runs jockey isn’t too much of an issue because they will want him in the lead or near to it.
The bumper isn’t normally a race I would pay too much attention to as it’s very hard to guage the form of many of the runners but was rather bored last night and decided to have a go…..
One horse imparticular struck me, Sir Johnson. Not necessarily the winner of the race, but certainly one which I believe to be the best value.
Has won four straight bumpers, the last of which was a listed contest at Aintree over 17f (and really asserted over the last furlong which would bode well for getting up the hill) in which he carried 7lbs more than Royal Guardsman and beat him quite well. The only article I can find on the horse is an interview done with his trainer after the race in which he said he’ll either be put away espcially for Cheltenham or he’d go hurdling straight away, and the former has obviously been decided upon.
Plus even if following top speed and RPR he isn’t too bad on TS of 75 and RPR of 126.
While I’d imagine Royal Guardman will have come on further than Sir Johnson, I can’t see a reason for the huge difference in prices.
I’m a novice when it comes to the bumper game so am I missing something and can anybody clue me in?
I think you will find I discovered the wheel on the 23rd January – sometimes it’s an idea to read through threads.
I had read through the thread, my question wasn’t "does anybody else think Sir Johnson is a good bet?", I could see that you had already pointed him out. I was asking if anybody knows why Royal Guardsman is so much shorter than Sir Johnson? What are the reasons why he would be able to turn the form around just between the two of them?
Like I said in my earlier post, I don’t follow bumpers at all really so I wanted some more knowledgeable opinions on the differences between the two horses which could explain the price difference. I think you’ve taken my question as a slight on your opinion or something, it wasn’t anything of the sort.
The bumper isn’t normally a race I would pay too much attention to as it’s very hard to guage the form of many of the runners but was rather bored last night and decided to have a go…..
One horse imparticular struck me, Sir Johnson. Not necessarily the winner of the race, but certainly one which I believe to be the best value.
Has won four straight bumpers, the last of which was a listed contest at Aintree over 17f (and really asserted over the last furlong which would bode well for getting up the hill) in which he carried 7lbs more than Royal Guardsman and beat him quite well. The only article I can find on the horse is an interview done with his trainer after the race in which he said he’ll either be put away espcially for Cheltenham or he’d go hurdling straight away, and the former has obviously been decided upon.
Plus even if following top speed and RPR he isn’t too bad on TS of 75 and RPR of 126.
While I’d imagine Royal Guardman will have come on further than Sir Johnson, I can’t see a reason for the huge difference in prices.
I’m a novice when it comes to the bumper game so am I missing something and can anybody clue me in?
I think you will find I discovered the wheel on the 23rd January – sometimes it’s an idea to read through threads.
I had read through the thread, my question wasn’t "does anybody else think Sir Johnson is a good bet?", I could see that you had already pointed him out. I was asking if anybody knows why Royal Guardsman is so much shorter than Sir Johnson? What are the reasons why he would be able to turn the form around just between the two of them?
Like I said in my earlier post, I don’t follow bumpers at all really so I wanted some more knowledgeable opinions on the differences between the two horses which could explain the price difference. I think you’ve taken my question as a slight on your opinion or something, it wasn’t anything of the sort.
Obviously, there are several factors and it is your choice as to how nuch weight you would put behind them. Royal Guardsman is a horse with a big reputation as indicated by the Aintree starting price. He travelled like the best horse in the race, was hit over the head with the whip and the Tizzard horses were not firing at the time. He now has a recent, very impressive win to his name and stable are going pretty well. Sir Johnson, on the other hand is a year older, hasn’t run for a long time and the stable have been struggling.
I am on at 40/1 and 33/1 but I wouldn’t advocate backing either at the current prices.
I have been impressed by Sir Johnson, particularly that weight carrying performance in the Aintree bumper. The form of that race has worked out well but I can’t help but feel that the horse will need the race on Wednesday. Saying all that, I’ve been surprised with the recent support. I thought 25s was fair and wouldn’t go in at 16s.
Personally I’m going to be looking at having a decent bet on it in the Aintree bumper should the horse go there. There will be much more in Sir Johnsons favour in a few weeks time.
Well topspeed ratings say that Royal Guardsman, Pique Sous and New Years Eve have absolutely no chance. Pitiful attempts on the clock.
Moscow Mannon and Jezki to fight out the finish for me. Really hope it’s the former who prevails.
One horse who definitely won’t be winning tomorrow is Champagne Fever. His price has doubled in the past week. Opened around 9/1 earlier today on Betfair’s market. Now trading at 16s.
One horse who definitely won’t be winning tomorrow is Champagne Fever. His price has doubled in the past week. Opened around 9/1 earlier today on Betfair’s market. Now trading at 16s.
This shows you really are a complete idiot. I said it when CAA won yesterday, you can follow markets off a cliff. Mullins knows what it takes to win this, and duly delivers once again.
You can also follow speed ratings off a cliff too.
Looking at your ante post bets you have had a complete nightmare. Got to laugh…
Got that completely wrong but obviously not the only one – many will have backed that at half the odds it was returned which does give an indication of draining confidence. Still not convinced by the head carriage but stamina won the day.
One horse who definitely won’t be winning tomorrow is Champagne Fever. His price has doubled in the past week. Opened around 9/1 earlier today on Betfair’s market. Now trading at 16s.
Haha
Time for me to throw my tuppence in now the dust has settled.
I’ve been critical of Patrick Mullins in the past but his ride on Champagne Fever was top class. This horse looks a real stayer and he burned them off one by one. I was pleased to see Willie Mullins say today that they are considering going chasing next season because that’s exactly what I thought after the race. He looks a big athletic type that will only improve for a step up in trip. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him back for the Jewson or RSA next season.
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