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Champagne Stakes 2016

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  • #1262156
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    Could be a good renewal this although likely a few will drop out yet.
    Mehmas holds an entry but Hannon has already admitted he is a horse for this year and unlikely to progress next year so you would think he is more likely to take up another one of his entries either Middle Park or Mill Reef. Hannon also has Majeste and Eqtiraan as possibles and I really like Eqtiraan. I think anything he does this year will be a bonus as he is about as mature as a teenager boy at a strip club. I think he’ll run and depending on price may be an each way selection as he’s far too wayward on his 1st two runs to trust. Appleby has 3 Boynton, D’Bai and Salsabeel. O’Brien has 4 War Decree, Capri, Courage Under Fire and Leo Minor and the others still in at this stage are Rivet, Lockheed, Taamol and Tommy Taylor.
    Looking forward to this it should be a decent race
    It all depends on price and who turns up but War Decree looks the most solid at this stage.

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    #1262163
    Sunspangled
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    War Decree isn’t running. Capri is the likely one from Ballydoyle.

    #1262165
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    Thanks Sunspangled, I’m only going by who’s declared
    If they could stick up a market that info is invaluable.

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    #1262169
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    Paddy Power have a book Nathan:-

    Champagne Stakes

    Boynton 15/8
    Mehmas 2/1
    Rivet 5/2
    Capri 4/1
    Eqtiraan 6/1
    DBai 8/1
    Taamol 8/1
    Salsabeel 10/1
    Thunder Snow 10/1
    Courage Under Fire 12/1
    Lockheed 12/1
    Leo Minor 14/1
    Majeste 14/1
    Grey Britain 20/1
    Tommy Taylor 20/1

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1262170
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    Sorry about War Decree, I’ve got him on the brain at the moment, When I’m thinking about Boynton I end up with War Decree.
    First thoughts on those odds Steve is that Mehmas is too short I can’t see him turning up and the step up in trip will come with a question mark. Eqtiraan is the one I want to side with but his greeness is off putting and I’d want 10’s like he was in his last race which looked easier than this one.

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    #1262171
    Avatar photoSteeplechasing
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    Paddy Power have a book Nathan:-

    Champagne Stakes

    Boynton 15/8
    Mehmas 2/1
    Rivet 5/2
    Capri 4/1
    Eqtiraan 6/1
    DBai 8/1
    Taamol 8/1
    Salsabeel 10/1
    Thunder Snow 10/1
    Courage Under Fire 12/1
    Lockheed 12/1
    Leo Minor 14/1
    Majeste 14/1
    Grey Britain 20/1
    Tommy Taylor 20/1

    Is that really a PP market? More than 200%. Jeez!

    #1262172
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    Tight gits they are Joe
    I suppose they don’t want to take much of a chance if the field cuts up. Ante Post they go 1/5 the odds 3 places, could end up a six runner affair.
    Mehmas won’t run..??
    Appleby will go with probably just the one
    O’Brien may keep in a pacemaker but run 2 max
    a few more drop out and you’ll left with a small field
    Eqtiraan each way may be the way to go, he’s held an entrie for this for a long time, I suppose it will depend on Hannon’s opinion of him after the last time but he must have an engine the way he wasted so much energy and still ended up ahead of Majoris and co.

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    #1262173
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    There is no appeal for me at the odds Joe. The first 3 in the book alone cover 97% and that’s a disgrace.

    Even if the race were just the first 4 in the betting alone, at these prices, it would still be a poor value book.

    Rivet looks particularly bad value at 5/2. A maiden winner as low as that and his maiden has seen 4th and 5th well whipped since.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1262174
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    Yes, I can’t see why Rivet would be ahead of Eqtiraan in those odds, I expect Oddschecker have ballsed it up and forgot to put a 1 in front of the 5 and even if it was 15/2 I’d pass
    Eqtiraan beat Rivet on debut and was as green that day as he was next time out.

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    #1262206
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    Well a few more have priced the race up and Rivet is best 3’s and Eqtiraan 12’s with Skybet.
    I’ve had a small each way bet at this stage as I think he’ll run and is a bigger enough price.

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    #1262219
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    I suspect Rivet is the price he is because of the hot Haggas form of nigh on 1 from every 3 winning.

    The problem always seems that the Haggas horses struggle when upped to the higher levels of the game.

    I reckon 3/1 for a maiden winner and 11/4 for a Group 2 winner Boynton is a crazy pairing of prices. Match bet anyone?

    The other books that have opened are hardly great value but the Paddy Power book makes all the others seem like philanthropists.

    Paddy Power want to take a good shake to themselves in the morning. Never mind what the Royal Box smells like, Paddy’s crew are trying to bang it up the Punter’s Chocolate Box with those odds! B-)

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1262222
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    What do you think of Mehmas here Steve..? A very tough consistent horse but up in trip and likely if Capri runs then O’Brien may use another runner to ensure a stamina test. I can’t have Mehmas as fav personally, he missed the Morny due to a bad scope. I’d like to see him run and win but at the moment I’m not seeing it.

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    #1262260
    Avatar photoGladiateur
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    Mehmas was well on top at the finish in the Richmond Stakes and, with Blue Point having franked the form in no uncertain manner in the Gimcrack, looks a worthy rival to the Godolphin and Ballydoyle battalions.

    #1262262
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    Mehmas has rock solid form. He is only Caravaggio and a bad call at 5F away from being unbeaten this season.

    I am not really sure how a horse with two group 2 wins and a RPR of 114 is 5/2 and a maiden winner with a RPR of 93 is 3/1.

    It seems that Boynton may go to Ireland but I am reluctant with ante-posts at the moment with Sea Of Grace and Big Orange both pulled out late for the weekend’s racing.

    Capri will probably run here and leave a penalty kick for Churchill back home. He was pulled the last time the two were set to meet.

    I like Salsabeel as a potential long term horse but this is a huge ask at this stage.

    A chance is taken that Mehmas will run and that he will last home over the extra furlong. He’s tough, experienced and talented. The others have potential but I would rather take the proven form.

    Not a shoo in but 5/2 could beat SP.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1262280
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    Interesting posts regard Mehmas
    I think if Boynton goes to Ireland it will take out the main danger.
    The race in which Mehmas beat Blue Point was a bit of a muddling affair tactically, I’m not sure what the fractions were, don’t think they were that quick. If O’Brien puts in the pacemaker I’d still be a bit worried about him getting the trip.

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    #1262286
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    Interesting posts regard Mehmas
    I think if Boynton goes to Ireland it will take out the main danger.
    The race in which Mehmas beat Blue Point was a bit of a muddling affair tactically, I’m not sure what the fractions were, don’t think they were that quick. If O’Brien puts in the pacemaker I’d still be a bit worried about him getting the trip.

    It’s one of those “Who else can win it?” races for me Nathan.

    For me, Capri’s rating of 108 looks a bit generous. He’s a listed winner but I think it’s unlikely that there is only 6lbs between him and Mehmas. Ground can be a great leveller combined to extra distance but I preferred the look of Capri when he ran over a bit further on his second start.

    I hope Boynton goes for the National Stakes, for the sake of the quality of that race. We could be looking at a three horse race at the Curragh with Churchill a squillion to one on favourite.

    Eqtiraan seems too green still. D’Bai scrambled home at 1/5 last time and didn’t seem to me to have come on from his first race. The third horse later ran off 75 in a Nursery and was tailed off like a scabby donkey.

    Taamol made a good start for trainer Michael Stoute but has to step up a chunk and has been off for 11 weeks, a bit unusual I would think.

    If the ground gets really soft it should suit Capri and make life tough for Mehmas.

    I can’t get that enthused about anything else really.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1262330
    Dex
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    • Total Posts 90

    Looks like Mehmas is going for the National Stakes on Sunday:

    “He rides Persuasive for John (Gosden) in the Matron Stakes and then on Sunday he rides Mehmas in the National Stakes and Diploma for Sir Michael Stoute in the Group Two Blandford Stakes,” said Cochrane.

    http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/10568531/fascinating-rock-booking-for-frankie-dettori-in-irish-champion-stakes

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