Cesarewitch 2014

[darren83]

For me it is QUICK JACK 12/1 Won at Galway and over the hurdles at
Cheltenham also trainer won race before too.

RHOMBUS 25/1 and EARTH AMBER 33 others i like too.

[Gdc1]

Apologies Darren lad but I too like Quick Jack who is going to be an excellent dual purpose horse and is with the right yard

[stevecaution]

I haven’t really studied this one yet but was surprised to see Pallasator put in as 12/1 favourite. I didn’t think he really stayed the trip last year and some people thought he didn’t get home in the Ebor last time. He came with a promising looking run from quite a way back at York but then seemed to flatten out and Jim McGrath opined that a strongly run one and a half miles may be ideal for him.

Mark Prescott has said Pallasator is quite a tricky horse to train and he’s very lightly raced for his age. I thought he showed improved form at the shorter trips this season and thought he had a great chance of winning the Ebor. I just can’t see him winning this and he’s drifted steadily to 16/1.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[moehat]

I’m going to have to continue to follow Noble Silk.

[Gdc1]

Tony Martin already coming out with excuses NOT to run the favourite!! Very annoying as he looks very well in and made for the race. Won’t run on very soft or good/firm so it might be worth looking to back a couple at decent outsiders that stay as once he is declared a NR the prices will shorten considerably!

I’m on the fav large already from previous winnings so am looking at:

Edge of Insanity and Giants Quest

[Gdc1]

Thankfully the rains have visited Newmarket so there could be a chance that Quick Jack could run – the price has tumbled but that could merely be the bookies running for cover because of Tony Martin

[tony321]

I don’t like Irish horses in the Cesarewitch, they don’t have much of a record, right now I like the look of Teak

[Venture to Cognac]

The market suggests she won’t be going, but I always kept

Debdebdeb

in mind for this. Should she line up I’d be expecting a decent price….but I’ll definitely be waiting for the day.

If the heavens opened, causing the race to cut up, I’d be very keen on

First Avenue

, and have a few quid on at 140’s and 150’s, just in case. Highly unlikely to make it, I’ll hopefully get my cash back should he, as expected, be balloted out.

[moehat]

I’ve had my bet on Noble Silk. He’s been running in high grade handicaps all year and often seems to meet bad luck in running. He’s won over 2 miles and seems to be happy to settle midfield. Would have liked to see a claimer take a few pounds off his back but, then again, Frankie has won the race before [not sure about the ground, either]. Also backed See and Be Seen [whose jockey will take the extra 4lbs off his back], Digeanta [she wasn’t far behind the Tony Martin horse] although she hasn’t got a jockey booking yet. A very tiny bet on Hidden Universe who also probably won’t run and Moidore. I think I meant to back Rhombus not Moidore but forgot to take my bit of paper to the bookies. It was a last minute decision togo to the bookies; I just turned left on the way back from doing the school run instead of right

.

[Triptych]

Just had a good look through the field this morning and I’m going for

Groovejet (each way)

Currently a generous 33/1 with Ladbrokes and Boyesports this morning.

Phil Cunningham’s 3yo filly ran a good race in the Group 2 Park Hill at Doncaster LTO to be second to Silk Sari. Although beaten 5 lengths she was staying on at the finish and I think she will run a good race on ground which is likely to be good to soft at Newmarket on Saturday.

Groovejet is by 2000 Guineas winner Cockney Rebel whose sire Val Royal also sired Aaim to Prosper, twice winner of this race on soft ground.

It looks a wide open contest this year and all mentioned in this thread are dangers, lots of good judges of form, just think 6/1 Quick Jack is too skinny a price now for this one.

Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...

[Venture to Cognac]

Good luck Trip with Groovejet, if Debdebdeb doesn’t go, he’ll be my main hope………..I’m sure you’ll be thrilled at that Even if Deb does go, I’ll still be chucking a few quid his way, best of luck.

[thehorsesmouth]

Swnymor (12/1) looked very unlucky behind Quick Jack in Galway and flew home in the finish. He has a 16 lb swing in the weights for six lengths and must have every chance of reversing the form. Quick Jack (6/1) could have another few pounds up his sleeve and the bookies probably have it right with these two heading the market.

Swnymor would be my selection at the prices but my success rate in these types of races is not the best!

[Triptych]

Good luck Trip with Groovejet, if Debdebdeb doesn’t go, he’ll be my main hope………..I’m sure you’ll be thrilled at that Even if Deb does go, I’ll still be chucking a few quid his way, best of luck.

If she wins VTC I’ll be more than thrilled…oh and Groovejet is a filly sounds like her owner is an Austin Powers fan or something. I hope to be there on Saturday so fingers crossed she’ll run a good race and interesting to see if Franny Norton will hold her up like in her last 3 races or ride up with the pace as she has done in the past.
Jac

Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...

[moehat]

Waiting to hear the draw. See and Be Seen first reserve; doesn’t look likely that he’ll run

[Venture to Cognac]

Jac, it wouldn’t be the first time I’ve got my he’s and she’s mixed up (on here I might add , can’t stress that enough) but on this occasion, I actually knew she was a filly………..don’t know what I was thinking

The good news is though, "he" goes, and looking forward to a big run from him, and my other filly Debdebdeb.

Best of luck.

[stevecaution]

My advice to avoid the early favourite Pallasator was a good idea, as he isn’t in the field now.

The fav is far too short now and I am looking for something each-way at 16/1 or bigger.

Teak is a contender having pulled off a shocker at 33/1 before following that with wins over the sticks and on the flat. Certainly in form and with no stamina doubts you would think he’ll be thereabouts. The only problem is whether he needs a real slog and with the ground currently good I am passing him over in favour of a younger and perhaps classier sort.

My money has ended up on Rhombus. This son of Authorised has progressed this season and won his last two starts. There is a lot to like about him as he has won on heavy, good and good to soft. He has won at 12f on good to soft and 16f on soft, so you would be hopeful he’ll get the extra 2f on good ground. One of the lesser exposed at staying trips especially, and only 4 years of age he represents a stable not in the same form as last season but capable enough of winning a big one, as they did with Educate in the Cambridgeshire last season. Apprentice find Cam Hardie takes the ride and a useful 3lbs off his back.

As normal for me recently the draw has been extreme, with Rhombus in box 35 of 36 runners. Sometimes slowly away it probably won’t matter to Rhombus and if you can’t make up ground over 18f there is something far wrong.

I feel Rhombus could have a little bit of class here and maybe a bit more speed than some of the dour stayers. I reckon there’s plenty to like and at 20/1 he’s each-way material with Quick Jack looking poor value at 6/1 with 35 opponents to face.

Good luck.

Rhombus 20/1 Each-way (Corals)

Hope he’s in good shape

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[moehat]

Added Argent Knight to my ever growing list and last years second, Waterclock. I’ve not had a bet for ages and am getting a bit carried away.

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