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September 13, 2009 at 14:08 #12638davidjohnsonMember
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May as well get one of these started.
Wicked Daze was ante-post fav for this race at one stage last year when with Sir Mark Prescott. He lost his way but has dropped down the weights as a result. I thought he shaped really well on his first start for Kevin Ryan at Chester, going with plenty of zest byt losing all chance when badly hampered on the home turn. He is down to 78 today having won off 92 at his peak. I like the fact that Ryan is ruinning him on a Sunday to give him lots of options under a penalty if successful, he has options at Ayr and Yarmouth next week, but also a Ces entry. He’s likely to need a penalty to get in the race, possibly a double one, but even if he does, he’ll still be well handicapped on his best.
There are definitely worse 50/1+ shots in the race.September 13, 2009 at 14:18 #248612GeraldMember
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There is a new Ces Trial at N’ket, next Saturday, I think.
It is actually over 2m2f. Does that make sense for a Ces Trial, or ought it to be over 1m6f?September 13, 2009 at 18:57 #248661
Those who have read other threads will know I fancy Nanton for this. Very unexposed over a trip and seems to have a turn of foot at the end. Would need fast ground though.October 6, 2009 at 00:55 #12826
Lets see if we can all pool our knowledge and add it to my pin sticking technique and end the flat season on a high with this one. I’ve got my old bet on Nanton who probably won’t run anayway. I looked at the runners and the two that interested me were Swingkeel and Blue Bajan; Swingkeel because I ignored John Dunlop at York and missed quite a few winners because of it. However, I then saw that he was only a 3 year old, and it seems quite a grueling race for a youngster; not much of a price, either. Someone mentioned Blue Bajan at a NH preview last year and pointed out how much speed the horse had, but he’s got an awful lot of weight.Apart from those two [and dear old Fair Along] I don’t really know where to start. Not sure about the trends for this race, either, or even if there are any.October 6, 2009 at 16:46 #252132
Fresh horses; less than 6 races in current campaign; not running for the first time that season; 8.12 or less [not sure about that one, certainly after last year!]. First 5 last time out. 6 years or older [only slight preference for that age group, but can’t see many 3 year olds over the years]. Jumpers have a good record but need a rating of 90 – 100. Draw last year seemed to favour higher numbers; 11, 32, 28, 14, 15, 8. Mamlook was third with 8.6 and has got 8.3 at the moment.Think David Pipes horses are running well.[?] Is also a year older/stronger. Having said that, looked at stats for the Munster National and 2 sites came up with completely different figures.Liked the look of Callisto Moon but only rated 82 and not sure if he would get in with a weight of 7.10.Higher weights seem to have done well in more recent years, especially if trained by Nicky Henderson. Apart from Carraciola, most horses have been priced 16/1 or less.October 6, 2009 at 18:59 #252151
Tilt is a funny old horse with thirditis, but he was staying on well at the end of last years race and has been kept quite fresh this year . Stays on well in all of the races that he decides to take part in. Callisto Moon has had a lot of races but seems to stay all day. Think I’ll have an ew on both of them. Was wrong about Swingkeel; must have looked at an old race because he’s 4 not 3, but 4 still seems too young. Could this be the race that one of my bogey horses wins [Waldvogel or Fiulin]?. So it’s Mamlook, Tilt and Callisto Moon at the moment. As usual will have backed half the field by next week.October 7, 2009 at 01:16 #252209GeraldMember
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Slightly disappointed that the pair of you have already stumbled on the effect of the draw in a race where they run straight for the first mile. I was hoping to wind people up with that factor.October 7, 2009 at 01:47 #252216
Callisto Moon has got some sort of 4lb penalty which means he has @ 8st. Not sure where the cut off point is likely to be, though. Although he’s a 4 year old, I do like Dirar; could this be a Gordon Elliott raid again..might he get a claimer to ride.October 7, 2009 at 17:10 #252284
Good news for some of us…Nanton may yet line up. Jim Goldie says he may take his chance if the ground stays firm.October 8, 2009 at 00:34 #252350beejay29Member
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Hi all. As a newby to this site i would like to throw ALANBROOKE into the pot. He was desperately unlucky to get caught last time? Any thoughts??October 8, 2009 at 02:07 #252370
Not sure about the ground being firm in a weeks time; the monsoon season has started in Derby I’m afraid. Still, the dream is still alive. How much is my 50 pence ew double on Nanton at 33/1 and 25/1 worth?? c’mon Nanton….October 8, 2009 at 22:04 #252508
Think Alanbrooke is a 3 year old,so I’m going to ignore him. Was looking at the Northumberland Plate last night, and although most in the frame were 4 year olds it was still won by a 6 year old. 4 year olds do well if they are potentialy very good horses [Detroit City]. That grey horse of Henry Cecil’s loves Newmarket [Atlaal?]. Blue Bajan needs genuine good ground. I’d imagine that over 2m 2f it’s really important for a horse to have it’s ideal ground, so I may wait and see what the weather does over the next few days. What I can’t find out is the age of placed horses over the years.October 8, 2009 at 22:22 #252516GoldikovaMember
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Edit – haven’t had a proper look at the race.October 8, 2009 at 23:35 #252538
That actually answers another of my questions; 3 year olds hardly ever get placed let alone win..some huge prices for the placed horses as well. Large percentage of hurdlers in that list as well.And placed horses doing well the following year..again at big prices.October 8, 2009 at 23:35 #252539
Not sure about the ground being firm in a weeks time; the monsoon season has started in Derby I’m afraid. Still, the dream is still alive. How much is my 50 pence ew double on Nanton at 33/1 and 25/1 worth?? c’mon Nanton….
Approximately £33.50. Not a bad return if he makes it!October 9, 2009 at 01:36 #252564
So, over the last 10 years 7/10 winning horses have been 6 or over.Not many horses over 7 have placed [although I suppose not many of that age have taken part]. Given that horses with a single figure draw have a terrible record that could rule out a lot of horses once we know the draw.Of course, this will probably be the year that a 3 year old favourite drawn 1 wins, but if there is a 3 year old favourite I shall use my trump card which is to back it win only; this has never failed to stop a horse from winning.October 9, 2009 at 03:28 #252573
Have been looking at Al Eile, Blue Bajan, Gala Evening and Sereth. Blue Bajan was aimed at the Tote Gold Trophy the other year and supposedly had a lot of bad luck in running. Gala Evening seems to go on all sorts of going. Was just about to find out more about Sereth when my computer crashed.
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