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If I say its a fact then it must be a fact.
Nathan dont be silly, I have seen some of your picks on here.
We could of made it a yearly challenge
Goreisking vs the dumb ones
I’m glad he refused as I’ve just got off the phone to mystic Meg and she rattled off the yearly results
Winners
2016 – Goreisking
2017 – Goreisking
2018 – Goreisking
2019 – Goreisking
2020 – Goreisking
2021 – a dumb one (Goreisking was on a world cruise and forgot to post)
2022 – Goreisking
2023 – Goreisking
2024 – Goreisking
2025 – a dumb one (Goreisking was busy as the owner of Barcelona FC and took his eye off the horses)
2026 – GoreiskingMeg didn’t say who the dumb ones were in 2021 or 2025 but it’s the taking part that counts
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Paddy Power have priced up the challenge
goreisking 5/6
the field 1/1A spokesperson for Gore commented as below
‘Gore is keeping his cards and betting slips close to his chest but says lump on the 5/6 that he wins it’s the biggest certainty since the hidden horse YLDAEIL. Only a moron would back the field at evens, should be 20/1 maximum’
He went on to say the only thing that can go wrong is if one of the dumb ones win in which case he has all bases covered and got the good old forecast.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Nathan your best trainer is Richard Hannnon
Did I miss something
I expected Gore had a banker of Hannon’s go down at some point and says Hannon can’t train a bit like when his selection lost in the Sussex and it was Frankie fault, Frankie can’t ride now either.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Frankie is a great jockey, I didnt back in the sussex but expected GG to win, if you ran that race 5 times you would get a diferent result. Moore tracking anyone is a huge danger even if hes on a 20/1 shot.
You didnt argue with me, Hannon is your fav isnt he? haha
Richard Hannon actually believed Canford Cliffs was a better horse than Frankel and when Frankel dismissed Canford Cliffs, he still actually thought Canford Cliffs was better than him!! He so deluded its unbelievable.
To the extent he even made a case for Canford and said he was injured or something silly!I dont think a Hannon horse has ever trained on from a 2 year old.
Well the horse you expected to win the Sussex is sired by a Hannon horse…..
Blackbeard to conquer the World
If you gave me 10 group 1 races against any other person in world I am 100% confident I would call more winners, actually that’s a fact.
Gore,
This quote (above) is the problem with your strategy.
If you constantly go for short priced horses, then “fact” is YES you will probably get “more winners”. But why is that so important to you? Just because a punter has “more winners” does not make him/her a better punter.FACT is – like any punter – it’s your own strike rate compared to your own average priced winner that matters.
At level stakes:
Say you have a 40% strike at an average priced winner of 11/8… You will not make an overall profit – that’s a fact – the mathematics of betting means it is impossible.
If another punter has just half of your strike rate, you might not think he/she is doing as well as you. But fact is a 20% strike rate with an average priced winner of 9/2 makes an overall profit.There is nothing wrong with backing solely short priced horses as long as a punter is very selective. If you’re not extremely careful the prices are going to be too short to show an overall profit.
It is not good enough to work out the horse with the best chance of winning, without having a good idea about just how good its chance is. Odds compilers are just as capable of identifying horses with an outstanding/excellent/good chance of winning, your job is to identify and back ONLY the ones he’s got wrong.
In every race (including your favourite Group 1’s) the bookmaker’s odds compiler works out what he considers are the fair odds for each horse in the race are. The bookmaker then adds his mark up to those prices. So if the odds compiler works out the horse with the best chance of winning has (in his opinion) got around a 31% chance of winning… 31% is (almost) equal to a fair price of 9/4)… But the bookmaker does not offer 9/4. Instead adding his mark up and offers 2/1. So unless the punter believes the horse has a better than 33% chance of winning he should leave the 2/1 alone.
If you bet on every/most Group 1 races and always go for the one witch you believe has the best chance of winning – I guarantee the odds won’t be good enough often enough for you to make an overall profit. Got to be far more selective.
Value Is EverythingHas YLDAEIL won yet
I’ve got the kebab delivery guy here waiting for me to pay himBlackbeard to conquer the World
Only I’ve checked all my betting accounts and none have paid out yet..?
Blackbeard to conquer the World
You’ll have to break open the piggy bank to pay the Kebab man Nathan
Looks like RISKING EGO may have to eat some HLEMUB IEP
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
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