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Hes beaten nothing though frenchy and that roaring lion form cant be taken on face value as he was much better over 10f and on good ground
I can fly came second and stormy antarctic 4th so not a strong renewal. Certainly nothing as strong as this years anyway.
And if enough of palace pier, alpine star, circus maximus, King of change show up then I cant see him having the class as they all go on soft too
Unlike yesterday where his two main rivsls regal reality and Duke of hazard both prefer gd ground
Just to let people know Benbatl could be running at Haydock next Saturday. I will check out the weather and if it looks dry all week I will bet him.
The going today at Haydock is heavy, I don’t think I will back Benbatl unless the going turns good. If the course was in the south of the country I could see it drying out but in Lancashire I am doubtful. We will wait and see.
haha always rains in the North and in the South, we have sun most of the time definitely!
The trouble with Haydock is the track. If you accidentally spill a glass of water on it, that’s enough to turn it soft!
Hes beaten nothing though frenchy and that roaring lion form cant be taken on face value as he was much better over 10f and on good ground
I can fly came second and stormy antarctic 4th so not a strong renewal. Certainly nothing as strong as this years anyway.
And if enough of palace pier, alpine star, circus maximus, King of change show up then I cant see him having the class as they all go on soft too
Unlike yesterday where his two main rivals regal reality and Duke of hazard both prefer gd ground
The “he’s beaten nothing” angle doesn’t really work for me anymore. It’s been disproven so many times and I’ve been one of those pushing that. I think it’s wiser to look at the manner of the performance as a first point, then look at who he’s beaten as a secondary consideration.
The manner of that run in ground he is also likely to encounter in the QEII was impressive, very impressive actually. He travelled beautifully and picked up nicely to win by 4.5L. Had he won by a length or possibly 2, I think we could consider seriously who he beat to knock the form, but he didn’t, he slammed them.
I get the point about who will turn up, but on official ratings alone this year won’t be that much different to 2 years ago and Century Dream is a higher rated horse now even before that run on Saturday. So he has improved from that form 2 years ago and he’s had a Wind Op, so as those things often do, that solidifies the notion he has improved this year.
Plus I thought when backing him on Saturday that the track and trip might be a bit sharp for him, he should be even better over a stiff straight mile.
Circus Maximus is a horse I like and back a lot, but he ran badly below his form last time out, so has something to prove on. King of Change quite possibly will need to prove he can win after a 12-month layoff and Richard Hannon is so unreliable as a trainer these days and we’re talking about horses that are half the price of Century Dream.
Kameko, Siskin, Romanised, Benbatl, Pinatubo all probably won’t get ground needed to perhaps even run.
I don’t think there’s any way in the world Century Dream will go off 20/1. He’ll go off in single figures if the ground is suited. Therefore, he is a standout value for me.
The “he’s beaten nothing” angle doesn’t really work for me anymore. It’s been disproven so many times and I’ve been one of those pushing that. I think it’s wiser to look at the manner of the performance as a first point, then look at who he’s beaten as a secondary consideration.
What’s he beaten that’s all that good though Frenchy that you’ve been pushing so much? I’ve missed it.
Sir Busker
Regal Reality
King of Comedy
Zaaki?Would easily forgive Circus Maximus his last run, obviously well beaten, but quite a few were that day, including a horse that beat Century Dream easy?
Worth considering the Moore factor on CM, they suit eachother well, since MAY 19, Donnacha, Dettori and Soumillon have all lost on CM. Moore on the otherhand has been on when he’s ran all his big races.Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I mean I’ve been pushing the angle of saying horses haven’t beaten anything in the past and it doesn’t really work out. Benbatl last year, Ghiayyath at the start of this year, Mohaather this summer.
I just don’t think it works out to just say the horse hasn’t beaten anything. It’s better to look at the manner of performance as the starting basis.
I’m not sure I’d easily forgive Circus Maximus,forgive maybe, but not easily forgive. That was his worst run at mile quite comfortably for no apparent reason.
You maybe right with the jockey, but it’s not a comparison to say Frankie and Donnacha ran with him when he ran badly, as he was running over further than a mile which is not his optimum.
I mean I’ve been pushing the angle of saying horses haven’t beaten anything in the past and it doesn’t really work out. Benbatl last year, Ghiayyath at the start of this year, Mohaather this summer.
I just don’t think it works out to just say the horse hasn’t beaten anything. It’s better to look at the manner of performance as the starting basis.
You questioned Mohaather for Goodwood nah?
For me, it’s very much a case by case basis on how to judge a horse’s form and performance. Not every fantastic “performance” leads to a horse being a star, so it’s better for me anyway, to judge them individually.
That’s fair and they were in big races, but an interesting thing i think, as for me, i wouldn’t have Soumillon as the type of jockey that would suit CM well.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Century Dreams chance in the QEII depends on how bad the conditions are. The worse the conditions the better his chance of getting in the 3 if King of Change hasn’t trained on. Circus Maximus doesnt like Heavy that was apparent in France.
So it isnt the worse ew bet in the world if the above conditions prevail.In any case for me, it’s a value thing, 20/1 is value EW for me. it certainly won’t be my only bet in this race. I’ll be looking for a winner, possibly to take on Palace Pier with, but possibly not if I have huge confidence in him nearer the race.
I cant see Century Dream winning
He’s definitely one that should shorten as long as the ground has a fair bit of soft in the description.
As Frenchy has said there are quite a few in there that would be inconvenienced by that, or might not even show up because of it.
If he could run to around the level he did at Goodwood or Ascot behind Roaring Lion he could well cause a shock. Palace Pier would obviously need to run below par and so would a few others, but bar PP, he isn’t miles off them.
I’m not backing him but he’d be the standout bet right now imo.
I’m a fan of King Of Change, but 10/1 is quite short given he’s not been out this year. Not exactly sure why either, i know soft suits him but if he potentially “one of the best i’ve ever had” levels then you’d probably want to try him! Perhaps he’s not pleased them or had a knock.
Wouldn’t worry about Hannon as a trainer of the horse as long as the horse is ok in himself. Hannon can target races as good as anyone, as we saw with King Of Change last year…Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!
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