- This topic has 23 replies, 14 voices, and was last updated 9 years, 9 months ago by
.
- Posts
What a cracking 2m Grade 1 chase this is,only 6 runners but half of them have won a Champion chase and the other 3 never will.I am hoping Paul Nicholls is running Dodging Bullets’ on his merits and not just for place money to keep his head above water in the Trainers Championship because on genuine Good ground he’ll test old ‘Sprinter’ over a course that suits all the English horses.I have never been a fan of ‘Un des Sceaux’ and look forward to him derailing his and Willies Championship aspirations away over the Railway fences.At 16/1 e/w I’ll settle for 2nd to the old warrior if I have too.
I like the idea of taking UDS on. I think it was the ground rather than Special Tiara that got him beaten at Cheltenham.
The ground isn’t a convincing argument with Dodging Bullets though – at his best he is effective on anything. I think he has never quite caught up after being in a box during the crucial part of his season.
I’ll have a very small stab at Sire De Grugy in the hope that he rolls back the years at his favourite racecourse. If Sprinter Sacre (who was legless at the end of the Champion Chase) also fails to perform, then he is the only alternative. The vibes were bad for SDG before the Champion Chase with blinkers discussed but left off before a dire performance. 14/1 seems absurd for the Tingle Creek winner, especially when he was one slick jump away from taking down Sprinter Sacre at Christmas.
The biggest problem that UDS had at Cheltenham in my opinion was he didn’t turn up in mint condition, he looked dull and dis-interested beforehand and Mullins had said about 10 days previous that he wish the race was now and it couldn’t come quick enough and I believe he went over the boil. If he is back to the condition in which he turned out at Ascot, gets a care free lead and Townsend attacks the fences instead of letting the horse just fiddle over them then it will be a much closer race than what we had at Cheltenham, the going is the problem but Mullins could have left him at home so think he will be ready to rumble.
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
I’m with Nathan here but then again i think we were both singing off the same hymnsheet in march thinking UDS was a good thing. I think a combination of a number of factors contributed to UDS run at Cheltenham, he wasn’t spot on, didn’t get an easy lead and Ruby gave him an unusual ride.
I think Townend reverts back to the old Un De Sceaux tomorrow and lets him run and jump as keen as he likes and plays catch me if you can,all this Ruby trying settling him down has taken a bit of his spark but i think we’ll see the old UDS tomorrow and Sprinter will get going too late and Dodging Bullets isn’t the same horse as last year.I’ll be trying to get my money back from March
A fool and his money eh…..The race isn’t a betting proposition for me but I think UDS will lead them a merry dance and they won’t get near him!!
I hope I am wrong and SS blows them away again but heart and head are saying different things!!
God I am going schizo !!!
It started raining at Sandown before racing finished today (predictions were that if they didn’t get any rain the ground would be on the fast side of good by Saturday) and this will be a big plus for UDS as I think it was the much better ground at Cheltenham that was the reason for his defeat.
I don’t think UDS’s jumping at Cheltenham was that much different than the round he put in at Ascot but on that quicker ground Sprinter was able to travel easier through the race and UDS wasn’t able to quicken with him going downhill, which ultimately cost him the race in my opinion – but in the last 100yds both he and Special Tiara were staying on again and closing down Sprinter who had started to paddle big time.
I don’t think you will ever see the wing and a prayer style of jumping from UDS that was a prominent feature when he was hurdling because number one he is to small to be letting fly at every fence but as he gets older he is learning (probably helped by his two falls) that you have to be a bit more circumspect with fences than hurdles.
Even though he has won at Cheltenham, I think the contours of Sandown will suit him much better as the downhill bit is away from the stands and once in the back straight it is pretty flat until turning for home when you face the hill – I also think he will find much more once coming off the bridle than Sprinter will if it turns into a driving finish.
If the top two are feeling the effects of a hard season and are off their game, it wouldn’t be the greatest surprise if the fresher Dodging Bullets caused somewhat of a shock.
If Sprinter Sacre runs to the form he did in March he’ll win. But Nicky Henderson isn’t in great form, just one winner since Bouvir Dair at Aintree unless he’s had a winner today. Sprinter Sacre may also be better off a longer break these days and Cheltenham probably suits more than Sandown.
Unlike Hendo, Mullins is in cracking form and Un De Sceaux will probably get a lot closer and/or return to form. May be at his best with more give than Cheltenham gave, but this should be ok. Also best form able to dictate. On the face of it could get a softer lead without Special Tiara and no other horse in the race a “confirmed front runner”. However, Nicholls will be as happy not just with victory, if he doesn’t win will be celebrating if UDS gets beat, suspect rank outsider Ulk De Lin is in there to be a spoiler (can front run).
Dodging Bullets ran miserably at Cheltenham despite Nicholls good words beforehand and going seemingly in his favour. Sad to say doubt he’ll ever be the same horse that won a Champion Chase.
Solar Impulse shouldn’t be good enough, at least he’s in good form. Might do better than 66/1 implies, but can’t really see him getting in the first two.
I agree with Lost Soldier. Sire De Grugy ran poorly at Cheltenham, but the vibes were all wrong there and wasn’t knocked about… Thinking about blinkers, friendless in the market, had won the Champion on a firmer surface, but since injury probably better on softer ground. This should be ok and stable do particularly well here. Earlier in the season would’ve beaten Sprinter Sacre but for a mistake at the last. and are reasons to give him the benefit of the doubt given a price of around 12/1.
I’ve had a main (each way) bet on SDG with a saver on UDS.
Value Is EverythingWhite Men Can’t Jump….neither can Un De Sceaux.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Un De Sceaux can “jump”, on the whole is a good jumper of fences when in front. Just can’t jump when others are either alongside or half-lengthing him. Trouble is, now rivals know that… Therefore, either racing where UDS doesn’t like it, or (just as bad) force UDS’s jockey in to setting early fractions (to remain in front) wich are too fast for a maximum performance.
Value Is EverythingWhite Men Can’t Jump….neither can Un De Sceaux.
And Sam Twiston-Davies cant judge pace!
White Men Can’t Jump….neither can Un De Sceaux.
And Sam Twiston-Davies cant judge pace!
:lol:
I think it is you who “can’t judge pace” TAPK.It was SDG and UDS who went off too quickly for their own good and had nothing left.
Had sam ridden his mount with UDS and SDG then DB would’ve been beaten out of sight by UDS.Value Is EverythingNot sure why Townend felt he had to be as tight to SDG once that horse came upside as it seemed to intimdate UDS and I am still left wondering how he got to the other side of that ditch from where he took off from – shame he also tried to take the Pond fence back home with him and he did rather well to finish second after all that.
I do think on that quicker ground things are probably happening a tad too quickly for him which makes him tend to guess a bit more at his fences and we know being a little horse his technique leaves little room for error whereas on softer ground you are going that bit slower and he has more time at his fences.
Congrats to Sprinter on a perfect season and roll on December for the Tingle Creek when ‘fingers crossed’ we see him cross swords with Douvan.
People really do have very little logical thinking skills. What has happened since Cheltenham to suggest that un de sceaux would turn the tables? Clearly better on soft ground for a start. Secondly not a good enough jumper. Even when sprinter makes a mistake he lands with momentum, un de sceaux doesn’t. If uds didnt make the mistakes today he would have been beaten by roughly the same distance as Cheltenham. And I don’t agree with this nonsense about uds being intimidated by being close to other horses.
White Men Can’t Jump….neither can Un De Sceaux.
And Sam Twiston-Davies cant judge pace!
Surely he judged it perfectly to win as much prize money as possible. Smart ride from Sam and pocket talk from TAPK imo.
White Men Can’t Jump….neither can Un De Sceaux.
And Sam Twiston-Davies cant judge pace!
Surely he judged it perfectly to win as much prize money as possible. Smart ride from Sam and pocket talk from TAPK imo.
How can you judge pace perfectly when you give ‘UDS’ a fifteen length lead jumping the last and lose by 1 length? Of course its pocket talk,I was happy to be 2nd to ‘Sprinter’ at 16/1.Anyway its blatantly obvious that Dodging Buliets is next years Ryanair winner at 33/1.
A fool and his money eh…..
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.