September 10, 2020 at 11:49 #1500593Silver SpoonParticipant
- Total Posts 63
Sir Busker for me definitely. On this seasons achievements, I think that 14-1 is extremely generous.September 10, 2020 at 17:19 #1500647
Very pleased I waited, as Lord Tennyson taken out at latest forfeit stage.
I should take that as an omen to wait until the five days.
I’m not ruling out any at this stage, including all of those I mentioned in my opening post, and I’d add the likes of Good Birthday to that lot too.
I’d say that Tenbury Wells looks more appealing than he did a few weeks back, but with so many catching my eye, I’d be as well betting my old pal Dolphin Vista.September 19, 2020 at 15:14 #1502150
Can’t remember the last time I went this long without an Antepost on The Cambridgeshire.
Probably for the best, as so many have fell by the wayside.
I’m going back to my first post though, and the horse who jumped out, Chatez.
It’s not ideal that he ran today, nor is it ideal that he looked to need further than this, but it’s his best run in a long time, and I have to have a small early bet, a week away.
It makes sense to be cautious, with the five day Decs not far off, but at 80’s, I’m comfortable with the very real chance he doesn’t declare.
Chatez 80’sSeptember 21, 2020 at 15:28 #1502472
Hardly a surprise that Chatez not declared, and it made sense to just have a smaller bet.
Don’t think I’ll be having a decent Antepost now, it just makes sense to wait now.
If I do have one, it’ll be a similarly small bet to Chatez.
The way the race is looking, I think that those at the top of the market are there on merit, and I find it hard to pick holes in any of them.
If Sir Busker doesn’t declare for Friday, I’ll try and nick 14’s, though he’s going to require a market watch all week. The other I like at this stage is Afaak at 33’s, I reckon that’s too big.September 21, 2020 at 16:12 #1502479
Normal starting point for me would be to look at those who have won over the distance, it worked for year after year back in the day, but it’s been an odd year and there aren’t that many qualifiers. I turn the handle on some ratings when 48 hour decs are out on Thursday and see what comes out top.September 22, 2020 at 19:15 #1502850Mike007Participant
- Total Posts 2208
Has to be Tempus. 7-1 ew.September 22, 2020 at 20:59 #1502864All JeffParticipant
- Total Posts 251
I’ve went for Derevo at 14-1, and Al Rufaa 20-1.
With both cases it wouldn’t surprise me if they didn’t show up, but I’m happy to take that chance.September 23, 2020 at 10:44 #1502898
Sir Busker not declared Friday, so added him here, but holding off with Afaak for now.
Sir Busker 14’sSeptember 23, 2020 at 15:30 #1502953buckersParticipant
- Total Posts 542
I’m just after saying that I am curtailing my ante-post betting on the Cesarewitch thread, but I have bet two here.
I’ve bet Tempus to win at 7-1 + Good Birthday at 25-1 ewSeptember 24, 2020 at 13:42 #1503081jackh1092Participant
- Total Posts 2850
With the suspected rain again tomorrow i could see it being softer going, i think it’s worth giving King Carney a go at 25-1 with Ladbrokes.
2 wins on softer as a 2yo. Ran badly twice tried over further as a 3yo, gelded and then ran a nice race 3/4L behind Tempus. Was impeded that day too, so i wouldn’t rule out him running closer to Tempus again. Tempus is obviously progressive, but i don’t see why King Carney wouldn’t be as well.
Faster pace should help.
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!September 24, 2020 at 13:58 #1503086
Like him as well Jack.
Still haven’t decided on Afaak. Can get 40’s now, but his entry for The Balmoral is a big distraction.September 24, 2020 at 14:44 #1503092Mike007Participant
- Total Posts 2208
Got my ew 2 sorted for this.
Tempus 7-1. Bred to be better than a handicapper. Trainer said after his last win he hopes it is softer than it was there so its all set up for him nicely.
Ilaraab 12-1 6 places. Won last week on good. Trainer said on podcast that the horse prefers cut in the ground. And described him as a good horse and his mark for this as ‘dangerous’. Improving 3 year olds have won the last 2 runnings and Fallon on board as he can do the weight.September 24, 2020 at 21:00 #1503165
Very tight between the ones who have winning form in recent runs and my ratings tend to favour those close up in strong form races. My best three from top 6 are:
Derevo (General 12/1) – Raced over 10 to 12 furlongs since his 2yo days, but I’ve done nicely from horses tried at a new distance this term. Not over-raced and his 2nd to Straits Of Hormuz reads solidly in this company.
Bear Force One (40/1 in places) – Can’t for the life of me work out why this one is such a long price. A course winner and kept on strongly over the mile. Can be awkward before the start, but lightly raced and progressive and balance of form puts him right in there.
Kryptos (50/1) – My left field selection, well OK, my selection from 3 pitches away… Took some time to warm to the task after three seasons off, but last two races look better and was beaten by a handicap snip last time. Still below the mark he won off in 2017 and doesn’t look to have lost that ability. Well worthy of consideration with 6 places.September 25, 2020 at 11:50 #1503224
Rob, I’m still chewing over Afaak here as my backup, but his previous runs in it are the main concern, so I’ve been looking at other “loud” ones, and Kryptos is really catching the eye as well.
The outsider I’m swaying towards though is Anythingtoday. I know he’s a horse you’ve covered a lot, any thoughts on him tomorrow?September 25, 2020 at 12:05 #1503230
I’ve got Anythingtoday 5lbs off the top but that certainly puts him in the mix, in fact I have 2/3s of the field within 9lbs so as one would expect it’s a tight old affair! Roger Fell seems to be going quite well and, though this one doesn’t quite fit the 14 day pattern, he has been kept on the go which is the Fell method. I’ve stuck with my figures, but wouldn’t put you off.
One of the TwitterMoans was complaining about Dapper Man winning after running the field the day before and, as is their way, questioning the trainer’s parentage! Not one I would have backed, but no surprise whatsoever that it won. Fell has struggled in a disjointed season that doesn’t suit his methods, 6.5% winners from all-age handicaps, but his results are still better the shorter the gap since last run. In general you can put a line through anything that hasn’t run last 3 weeks, and added confidence if it’s 2 weeks or less.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.