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At present prices the standout bet looks galliard du mesnil for me at 25s
Have had a small bet on him just now
The mistake for Bravemansgame last season was the Challow on heavy ground – it’s a poor prep race for Cheltenham, with an awful record of producing winners at the festival
It probably took an edge off him for the spring festivals and i’d expect a closer contest over fences in the spring
( Wichita Lineman won the Challow and the Albert Bartlett but i think that’s it for the last 20 years )
Ahoy senor now a general 8/1 after winning a weak race by 30 lengths
His jumping was pretty poor at times not one for me at this stage
He won by that far because Mr Incredible head butted every fence and therefore didn’t run any kind of race
Be interesting to see how he does against better opponents
My initial reaction would be that the Old Course wouldn’t suit him but he warmed to the task and has a future, although lacks the scope of many in that division this season
In a championship race at championship pace his jumping could easily fall to pieces
Though you’d have to think it will improve with experience
I’d be of the complete opposite view. That was Ahoy Senor’s 6th run under rules. What BMG has shown – albeit very good – means that there’s nothing that can really be improved in the jumping department. Ahoy Senor, however, is more likely to show even more improvement, if you assume his jumping gets better with experience, along with the fact he’s had less runs than BMG. Not sure BMG is a true 3 miler and I don’t think he had that much in the tank at the finish last time out. Ahoy Senor has beaten some high 130 and 140 rated horses by upwards of 31 lengths in a decent enough time.
Ahoy senor missed Cheltenham for Aintree last season , it wouldn’t amaze if the same was to happen again , today’s race fell apart and the that thing of races tried to take every fence with him
Not sure how the race fell apart. I’ll concede that Mr Incredible was below par but the others couldn’t live with him. The clock suggests it was run at a fairly steady pace and Lucinda Russell has already said that the RSA is the aim. If he brushes up on his jumping I can only see one winner if he clashes with BMG – he’s got more potential for improvement for one. Maybe it’s a small bit of pocket talking as I’m on @40s but I think he’ll be the main British hope come March.
Conteau we know bravemansgame can jump , ahoy has a lot of work to do with his , there’s no guarantee he,ll improve leaps and bounds with his , he,s ran over fences twice so far and jumped at best adequately , totally disagree he,s the only UK hope , bravemansgame has nothing wrong this season and priced accordingly
Hey, HDLTG, I’m not saying he’s the only UK hope, but could see him being the main one. If they both go to Kempton then we’ll get a better idea. BMG is as good a novice jumper of a fence that I have seen, of that there is no doubt. I thought AS thought jumped really well at Carlisle and less so yesterday and although it isn’t guaranteed, you would think that AS has potential for more improvement than BMG.
Hypothetical question: if Nicholls trained AS and Russell BMG and considering AS already has one decision over BMG over hurdles (albeit post-Cheltenham, so to be treated with some circumspection), would BMG be shorter than AS in the betting?
Jumping and travelling well enough in a G1 race at Cheltenham isn’t for everybody, just ask Clan Des Obeaux.
It’s about the performance on the big day in March over those fences. Engines are all well and good, but of little consequence if the stiff Cheltenham fences get in the way.
As it stands, imo, Ahoy Senor’s jumping has to improve in regards to this race.
Conteau you have to bare in mind in what races there running in , BMG is getting more coverage as he,s running in novice races at the bigger courses/meetings , ask yourself why Ahoy was such a big price at Aintree , southern horses trained by big trainers will 99% be shorter than a northern horse , who was the last top class northern chaser ? , Monet Garden ? , it just confirms the north/south divide , by the way my fav ever horse is Grey Abbey and I’m a northern boy , I love to follow northern horses
Couldn’t agree more, Mike; his jumping needs a good bit of ironing out but the raw ability is there – dare I say more innate ability from a physical and cardio point of view than BMG. Couldn’t believe the disparity in prices between them at the start of the season (12s BMG and 40s AS), which just invited being backed. The Aintree run was not fluke and over 2m4f I’d maybe say BMG would shade it but over 3m plus I’d be all over AS like a cheap suit.
I don’t believe BMG was at his best at Aintree. Ahoy Senor’s ‘cup final’ was at Aintree. BMG’s was at Cheltenham. And I have no problem with BMG’s ability to stay 3 miles, no doubtful thought about it has entered my head. Nicholls knows what he has I think and the horse is going 3 miles next.
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