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The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Britannia 2009

Viewing 17 posts - 1 through 17 (of 18 total)
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  • #11790
    stilvi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4515

    Anyone backing anything drawn 20 and above?

    #234733
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    The thing to realise is that the Clerk of the Course can vary the amount of water applied to different parts of the track, so that the draw bias might disappear, or reassert in a different form. Having said that, I haven’t checked whether there will be any watering tonight.

    #234775
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29194

    Agree Gerald, there may not be a draw advantage tomorrow, but it’s worth taking a chance.

    Have taken 8/1 Brief Encounter, 18/1 River Captain and 25/1 Eastern Empire in the Britannia.

    Mark

    Value Is Everything
    #234782
    stilvi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4515

    IT seems bookmakers are just shortening up those drawn low. Couldn’t get the 8/1 Brief Encounter but took the 25/1 Eastern Empire. Must be a strong a possibility Brief Encounter will go off favourite. All the horses I originally fancied are drawn high so just wondering whether it is worth risking one of them.

    #234813
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29194

    IT seems bookmakers are just shortening up those drawn low. Couldn’t get the 8/1 Brief Encounter but took the 25/1 Eastern Empire. Must be a strong a possibility Brief Encounter will go off favourite. All the horses I originally fancied are drawn high so just wondering whether it is worth risking one of them.

    Oddschecker still says 8’s is still available at Ladbrokes for Brief Encounter.

    I suspect tomorrows Racing Post will be full of the draw advantage and it may be worth waiting to back a high draw if you’re thinking about it Stilvi. With the trade paper’s influence on the market most high draws are likely to drift.

    Mark

    Value Is Everything
    #234820
    stilvi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4515

    IT seems bookmakers are just shortening up those drawn low. Couldn’t get the 8/1 Brief Encounter but took the 25/1 Eastern Empire. Must be a strong a possibility Brief Encounter will go off favourite. All the horses I originally fancied are drawn high so just wondering whether it is worth risking one of them.

    Oddschecker still says 8’s is still available at Ladbrokes for Brief Encounter.

    I suspect tomorrows Racing Post will be full of the draw advantage and it may be worth waiting to back a high draw if you’re thinking about it Stilvi. With the trade paper’s influence on the market most high draws are likely to drift.

    Mark

    Thanks, I must admit I was looking around for the 5 places so I didn’t look at Ladbrokes.

    Just wondering given the expected lack of money for those drawn high whether any bookmakers will price up the two halves to generate some interest?

    #234831
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    The thing to realise is that the Clerk of the Course can vary the amount of water applied to different parts of the track, so that the draw bias might disappear, or reassert in a different form. Having said that, I haven’t checked whether there will be any watering tonight.

    They’d hardly spend millions on rebuilding the straight course, much of it on state-of-the-art drainage, to have to water out biases, now would they?
    The only bias that exists is in the jockey’s heads, made abundantly clear by the wave of horses drawn 15-23 in today’s Hunt Cup, who inconvenienced their mounts more than a little by switching across the course to tag onto the near side group.
    That isn’t to say exactly the same won’t happen tomorrow in the Britainnia, but it will have far more to do with the herd mentality than any ground inconsistency.
    As it stands, there are enough prominent racers drawn high for lack of far-side pace not to be a problem, and at 13/2, I’m willing to take the risk that Desert Creek will have sufficient impetus, and prove the best of them.

    #234835
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    Worryingly I’m on Eastern Empire too, as well as Mirrorred at 20-1. Reet is spot on- this is the fairest track ever built, unfortunately.

    #234839
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29194

    Worryingly I’m on Eastern Empire too, as well as Mirrorred at 20-1. Reet is spot on- this is the

    fairest track ever built

    , unfortunately.

    It might have been before they dug it up. Think the evidence suggests these days it favours a low draw, sometimes slightly, sometimes more so.

    It is now in my opinion not the fairest course in Berkshire, let alone ever built.

    Newbury

    Mark

    Value Is Everything
    #234841
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    I think you’ll find by the end of the week that if a decent group stay far side and get a good tow they’ll be competitive. As Reet says, any bias is more to do with the jockeys all deciding to come stand side than due to any inherent difference in the two sides. I’ll be on the lay side if you want to bet that horses like Lovelace were seroiusly inconvenienced by their draws this week.
    btw, I think everybody knows your name by now :lol:

    #234844
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Make that three on Eastern Empire, though I’ve had to accept 20/1 as I don’t have a Blue Square account any more.

    I also quite like the look of Secret Society – he perhaps isn’t brilliantly drawn in the centre of the track, but a strong pace should suit and he won extremely well (in the end) last time.

    #234974
    stilvi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4515

    Appears to be no money for Eastern Empire which is a little worrying considering he is drawn well and looks progressive. Interesting support for Emirates Roadshow given that the horse pulls hard, has a high head carriage and the jockey is probably low on confidence. Of the high numbers some support for Mirrored who along with Espiritu and Suruor would have been one of my fancies from the high numbers.

    #234982
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29194

    I think you’ll find by the end of the week that if a decent group stay far side and get a good tow they’ll be competitive. As Reet says, any bias is more to do with the jockeys all deciding to come stand side than due to any inherent difference in the two sides. I’ll be on the lay side if you want to bet that horses like Lovelace were seroiusly inconvenienced by their draws this week.

    Just there is a bias Carv, that’s not to say it is impossible to win from a high draw. Obviously pace is going to be another factor, if the best pace is far side it’s possible that side will win a race or two, despite the bias.

    With bunching towards the stand side, there is also the probability of some trouble in running for those held up drawn near the rail. Just a chance you’ve got to take.

    Fingers crossed.

    Value Is Everything
    #234987
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Deadly Secret 40/1 ew could run a big race. Bit of a gamble last time that went wrong but he could be better than his bare form suggests.

    #235008
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    Big draw bias all right Ginger, at least a neck :D

    #235009
    Zarkava
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4691

    :lol: What a line!

    #235022
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29194

    Big draw bias all right Ginger, at least a neck :D

    As I said Carv, the bias is only part of the race. Pace is also vitally important. As the commentator said, the far side was in front halfway. With the obvious low drawn pace horse River Captain not acting on the going, they were some way behind. Despite that, one who raced in the stand side group won.

    Had the pace been level then…….

    Shame about the bias Carv, otherwise you would’ve had the winner. Unlucky.

    Value Is Everything
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