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Anyone explain why Dettori has got the ride on Dar Re Mi. Dettori is essentially a bridle jockey and this filly appears to need plenty of driving.
Dar Re Mi for me tee hee hee.
Sorry.
I think she is the best bet of the meeting. She’ll have too much tactical pace for Conduit.
Zip
Dar Re Mi for me tee hee hee.
Sorry.
I think she is the best bet of the meeting. She’ll have too much tactical pace for Conduit.
Zip
Rumour has it that she’s just coming to the boil nicely after a ‘long hard’ season. The granite jawed filly will do for me too.
Well, Onthesteal,
I only just mentioned in another post about how the "hard season" quote from a trainer can often be a killer for a horse’s chances.
However, I have great faith in your reporting on the "rumour mill"….so I’ll keep the faith!
Zip
I have chosen Conduit and Spanish Moon. However, I would put Precious Passion in my top three. Why? This horse LOVES hard ground and he has speed that carries. He may not win it but he’ll be damn close to try and steal it. The closers need to keep an eye on this one. He’s going to get the ground he loves at Santa Anita.
Lonshot Allegre is out due to an abcess on his hoof.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/53326/longshot-allegre-scratched-out-of-turf
Although I think that Conduit really should win, the structure of the race may actually mean that the smartest bet(s) are Spanish Moon or DRM E/W @ 4/1+ each. There are 8 ruuners and it’s 1/4 odds e/w and it’s hard to see a few making the frame. I dare say DRM and SM will be circa 1.6 TBP on Betfair but you are getting 2.0 for the place part of your bet by backing e/w. So if you take the view that they are very likely to place then you basically get a ‘free’ shot at a 4/1 winner.
Si in essence I fancy Conduit to win but may end up backing both DRM and SM and not Conduit! That make sense?!
- Total Posts 17716
Agree Conduit will take all the beating but it will be tougher than last year. Spanish Moon won’t be stopping and it’s all down to Ryan Moore’s timing but I think he could be run out of it.
Fast track will suit Spanish Moon and worth a small bet at likely high odds with Betfair but not till he’s in the stalls
I happen to think that from a European point of view anyway (since I dont know any of the American horses) that this is an abysmal race. I feel that conduit won this last year after Eagle Mountain failed to get home but in spite of that he is not really a 10 furlong horse and if the pace is a bit pedestrian and this is tactical, his lack of pace could be a problem.
With all of that said, exactly what else in this race would actually be good enough to beat him?? Maybe something local.
Quite frankly the locals will be lucky to have one in the first 3. Conduit is a lot of things but he’s far from one paced…..either that or they’ve been riding him the wrong way. There’s no chance of the pace being pedestrian as the only chance they have is go like the clappers and hope there’s trouble in behind. Anyway Spanish Moon will ensure a strong pace if nothing else goes on, as his best chance is to combine a strong gallop with stamina and hopefully get to the line before Conduit hits top gear.
Be better drinking your money than backing anything to beat the Stoute duo.
Id probably back Red Rocks for place, I thought his come back looked quite promising.
There were major concerns over Precious Passion before the Arlington Million due to the ground at Arlington. He doesnt run on soft ground but they ran him purely because of the prize money. Unfortunately he didnt get any of that.
Stotsfold? Dont make me laugh. Purely suited by a ground condition none of the others were. Gio Ponti’s class shone through that day.
Whilst I appreciate Conduit may be hard to beat I’m a massive Spanish Moon fan.
Precious Passion will go off very fast and open up a wide margin and, on his prep run evidence, handles the course fine. I’m a little concerned about the distance for him though. He hasnt run over 1m4f this year and the one front runner I wouldve preferred here wouldve been Midships. Sadly Midships wasnt entered!
The ‘Arc Bounce’ is a major player here and I believe the record of Arc runners in this is very poor. Spanish Moon is a very fresh horse, had a forced mid-season break and has one of the best jockeys on his back. Thats no discredit to Ryan Moore but Kieren Fallon knows how to ride this track and it’s no coincidence that Fallon will be riding in California this winter.
I am of the opinion that Spanish Moon may get first run on Precious Passion and should have just enough to hold off a fast finishing Conduit.
Precious Passion broke the Monmouth Park track record when routing the field in the United Nations Stakes.
His latest performance in winning the Clement L. Hirsch Memorial was not as visually impressive (approx. 8L clear halfway compared to a staggering 20L in New Jersey), but it’s apparent he does nothing but gallop and will pose a problem if given a big, soft lead.
He has won over this distance, but it will be a different story at this level and he hasn’t faced anything like the calibre of Conduit, Spanish Moon and Dar Re Mi.
With Precious Passion likely to go on a suicide mission from the front, both Spanish Moon and Dar Re Mi will get a nice lead. Dettori and Fallon are two of the most astute tactical jockeys in the world and they won’t let the American horse get too far away from I can see them both making a move some way out.
This will do nothing but benefit Conduit, who has the most lethal turn of foot in the field and proved his liking for the course and, just as important, his ability to not only maintain, but improve his form at this time of year.
Spanish Moon keeps improving and he will love this course, but he was fortunate to win the Prix Foy from the tenderly ridden Vision d’Etat and that leaves him with a bit to find with both Conduit and Dar Re Mi.
Dar Re Mi has to be one of the most underrated horses in Europe. Arguably still improving and boasts victories over the previous two Oaks winners, but I’m not convinced this course will suit.
I will be disappointed if this isn’t a clean sweep for our horses. Precious Passion will make it a true test and that will only benefit Conduit. Spanish Moon and Dar Re Mi will be able to dictate the pace in the chasing pack, but they, too, will be sitting ducks for the King George winner down the stretch and I think he’ll grind Spanish Moon down in the final furlong.
Although I think that Conduit really should win, the structure of the race may actually mean that the smartest bet(s) are Spanish Moon or DRM E/W @ 4/1+ each. There are 8 ruuners and it’s 1/4 odds e/w and it’s hard to see a few making the frame. I dare say DRM and SM will be circa 1.6 TBP on Betfair but you are getting 2.0 for the place part of your bet by backing e/w. So if you take the view that they are very likely to place then you basically get a ‘free’ shot at a 4/1 winner.
Si in essence I fancy Conduit to win but may end up backing both DRM and SM and not Conduit! That make sense?!
Changed my mind. Conduit will win. Keep it simple
A wonderful tactical affair.
I love Conduit. All that s*** he’s been through in his life – how tough is he? Great ride by Ryan.
Fair play to Precious Passion. We haven’t got a horse like that in the UK. Incredible effort.
Fair play to Precious Passion. We haven’t got a horse like that in the UK. Incredible effort.
I told you… he just doesn’t slow down. What a game run, made Conduit earn it.
Agree Conduit will take all the beating but it will be tougher than last year. Spanish Moon won’t be stopping and it’s all down to Ryan Moore’s timing but I think he could be run out of it.
Fast track will suit Spanish Moon and worth a small bet at likely high odds with Betfair but not till he’s in the stalls
The word DESERTER comes to mind!
Well, I was blatantly wrong with that one.
Conduit had the superior tactical pace to Dar Re Mi when it was needed coming into the straight. Both he and the runner-up put up top performances.
The way Presious Passion kept on was really something…do you think he could have won if ridden more conservatively?
Zip
he owes me nowt.
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