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Thanks MOM but I don’t have At The Races either so I’m hoping it will be shown on the link below that Steve recommended to me a few months back to watch big races from France…
http://www.dmi.ae/dubairacing/live.asp
If it works it might be useful for others without access to ATR.. I’m hoping it does
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I’m sorry Jac but I can’t see Roly Poly winning from where she’s drawn given how she needs to be ridden prominently.
To be honest Charles I forgot to take the draw into account so that is a worry. However,my bet is cast and I’ll keep everything crossed that Ryan Moore does what he did in the Sun Chariot when she was fast away and crossed to the favoured stands rail. Her times over the mile will stand her in good stead and I still think she’ll take all the beating.
I’ll be rushing back from Newmarket to see if I can find where to watch this as I don’t have Racing UK 🙁
Enjoy a great couples of days racing and good luck..
JacAccording to the Breeders Cup website At The Races are also showing the Breeders Cup Races.
At The Races are showing that they have races 6,7,8 and 9 on Friday (Juvenile Fillies Turf, Dirt Mile, Juvenile Turf and Distaff)
For Saturday they show races 4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12 (Juvenile Fillies, Turf Sprint, Filly and Mare Sprint, Filly and Mare Turf, Sprint, Mile, Juvenile, Turf, Classic
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Thanks MOM but I don’t have At The Races either so I’m hoping it will be shown on the link below that Steve recommended to me a few months back to watch big races from France…
http://www.dmi.ae/dubairacing/live.asp
If it works it might be useful for others without access to ATR.. I’m hoping it does
JacThat link usually streams both Racing UK and At The Races, so I think you’ll be in the clear. I use it when I’m on the go.
That’s a result Voleur
thank you and good luck with your bets.
Also thanks to Steve for your feedback.
Looks like I will go to the Ball after all .JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...My main three bets for the meeting ( following extensive study
) are Drefong , Gun Runner , and my nap of the entire meeting – Bolt Doro , the proverbial flying machine .Good luck to everyone with their bets .
Bolt Doro is the biggest certainty of the meeting.
Absolute monster of a Juvenile
Bolt D’Oro looks like a very talented colt, and is deservedly favourite, but I keep thinking back to when Johannesburg beat the supposed “good thing” of the time; the Bob Baffert trained Officer. Officer came into the race on the back of 3 straight wins and went off 4/6 favourite, Baffert even went on record calling him a “superstar.” Johannesburg who had never ran on dirt, or over distances above 6.5f, stalked the favourite the whole way before accelerating clear in the stretch. Could U S Navy Flag also upset the favourite at similar odds?
There are some doubts over his ability to stay a mile, purely based on how drained he looked in the paddock after the Dewhurst, but I think that could just be the colt’s demeanour. He saw out 7f like a champion, and despite Seahenge slightly letting down the form in the Racing Post Trophy, U S Navy Flag gave him a comprehensive whalloping that day, albeit with the aid of the rail. Sectional analysis of the Dewhurst shows him slowing down in the final furlong, but that is positively off-set by some relentless mid-race sectionals, including 3 successive ones below 11.0s. This all points to him being able to stay a mile with a less aggressive ride.
He has a dirt pedigree, and if he takes to the surface he could be well capable of running better than his odds suggest. He has been drawn in the unfavourable Stall 1, so a lot of this depends on how well he breaks. But if Moore manages to get him to the front, and with the apparent speed bias at Del Mar, he could be very hard to peg back. If he fails to get him to the front, that may even work out in the colt’s favour due to the trip being an unknown quantity.
U S Navy Flag 9/1.
I have been meaning to post on here about the BC, and specifically Arrogate, for months but have been sidetracked by work. Moreover here is my two pence, for what its worth…..
I personally am unconvinced by the Gun Runner hype/price and thats mainly because I was fortunate enough to be at the Dubai World Cup.
I know the saying goes that you are only as good as your last run but in that DWC, Arrogate missed the break completely, was tailed off at the back of the field (by about 15 lengths), yet still managed to beat Gun Runner by a comfortable 2 and a quarter lengths. I couldnt believe what I was seeing in front of me.
Throw in the fact GR has never raced at Del Mar and hasnt won at 10f before in his career, I think there is a case that his odds are way too short.
Its fair to say that Arrogate’s comeback race (San Diego Handicap) was an absolute shocker but many horses flop on their return, albeit perhaps not as badly. Mikey Smith knew the race was long gone so coasted him home rather than give him a hard time.
His last race (Pacific Classic) he again was a bit sluggish but in the home straight he turned it back on and returned to his best by running down his stablemate and front runner, Collected. He was unlucky in that race in my opinion. It just took him too long to get going.
Arrogate has to overcome a difficult draw but in horse racing as soon as a quality horse loses, the majority run for the hills and they are deemed as good as finished.
I remember the exact same thing happening back in 2015 when American Pharoah lost the Travers to Keen Ice and I managed to get a ridiculous ante post price, as everyone had written him off (albeit a lot of support came for him in the build up to the BC).
I just hope history repeats and the current Worlds Best Racecourse brings his A game.
Good luck to everyone having a bet – heres hoping its a cracker.
Thanks MOM but I don’t have At The Races either so I’m hoping it will be shown on the link below that Steve recommended to me a few months back to watch big races from France…
http://www.dmi.ae/dubairacing/live.asp
If it works it might be useful for others without access to ATR.. I’m hoping it does
JacNot guilty on that one Jac. I use Ze Turf. It was someone else who recommended the Dubairacing link. I checked that one out but couldn’t make head nor tail of it.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I like the Breeders Cup. There was a really good preview show on Racing UK last night with Rachel Candelora in her element.
I’ve only just started the mountain of form study.
Juveniles Fillies’ Turf
I know we Euros are inclined to being biased about ‘our’ horses but I really think Happily will take all the beating. The draw is especially important at Del Mar, which is just about the sharpest track in America (saying something there!). It is amazing Happily has achieved all she has so far on soft ground (even a G1 winner on heavy!) given her breeding. Much much more to come on a fast surface I’m sure. In contrast, top US runner Rushing Fall is stuck out wide. The form of her Jessamine win doesn’t look all that hot and it’ll be hard to make up ground here. Similar worries turn me against September – she’s a real grinder who takes plenty of winding up even at a straight mile. I think she’ll struggle on a turning track on rocky ground. For an each-way option at a big price, I quite like Best Performance. She looked like the moral winner when forced six wide and held up off a slow pace against Significant Form, who enjoyed the run of the race last time. Best Performance has the better draw of the pair this time and could well run into a place. Now You’re Talking had me interested for a moment but Paddy Power seem to know the score with the O’Brien clan and it probably tells you something if they’re standing out at top price.
Bolt D’Oro sluiced in last time out but he had made a bit heavy weather of it on his previous start.
The theory is surely that stepping from 7F to 8.5F made the difference and that the trip he faces again should show him in his best light.
You would think US Navy Flag would have the legs of the favourite as a Middle Park Stakes winner who followed up in The Dewhurst. The trouble is that the favourite flopped in the Dewhurst and several seemed to have been having one race too many for the year. The third Seahenge was not at all good next time out.
The best chance for US Navy Flag is surely to lead and challenge the fav to close him down.
It’s not a race I would send my horse to if I felt he were a Guineas prospect and the well raced US Navy Flag is perhaps a horse for this season and the trip at the Breeders Cup may be one he won’t relish at Newmarket next spring.
You could argue that 9/1 is worth a punt on US Navy Flag, I am just not sure about that Dewhurst form.
For that reason I would also be worried about Mendelssohn in the turf version. Masar has a solid chance there and Beckford has has a decent season also. James Garfield has numerous pieces of useful form but is well advertised as short enough odds.
I will take a chance that something was amiss with Sands Of Mali last time. He is 33/1 here but his Gimcrack form with Invincible Army and Nebo suggests he is ahead of James Garfield. I have heard no reason for the Fahey colt finishing last in the Middle Park behind US Navy Flag but at York he fairly destroyed Invincible Army and Nebo (Won last Saturday). Richard Fahey had said that Sands Of Mali was not just a sprinter but rather a high class colt in his opinion. At double carpet it’s worth a try that they are not sending him this far just for a holiday break.
Juvenile Turf Sands Of Mali 33/1 (Right on the nose, s**t or bust)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Dirt Mile
I’m winding up for a big bet here. I think Sharp Azteca is a fantastic price at 5/1. Win-only is fine and probably the way I will go but it’s the ultimate each-way chisel if you can’t stand a bit of variance. True, he was trounced by Mor Spirit a few months ago but…
1. Mor Spirit hasn’t run since and hasn’t been impressing the workwatchers recently
2. Sharp Azteca himself was making his first start after 11 weeks off there
3. Sharp Azteca has the ideal draw in stall 3, whereas Mor Spirit and many of the pace angles are wider outHe looked like the best horse by some distance when doing too much too soon but still keeping on for a fine third at Meydan. Del Mar is the perfect track for him. Bet of the night IMO.
Happy with how some of the prices have went
Juvenile turf
James garfield 16/1 & 20/1 e/w
Mendelssohn 12/1 e/wJuvenile fillies turf
September 5/1
Significant form 10/1 e/wDirt mile
Accelerate 6/1Distaff
Abel tasman 10/1 e/w
Turf sprint
Lady aurelia 6/5
Filly & mare dirt sprint
By the moon 10/1 & 16/1 e/w
Filly & mare turf
Rhododendron (will back once she drifts tomorrow)
Turf mile
Ribchester 7/2
Juvenile dirt mile
Firenze fire 10/1 e/w
By the moon is probably my main bet of the night think shes over priced and ill be taking the favourite on, i may lay the fav if she shortens much more
Ill have a touch on highland reel/ulysses f/c and arrogate/west coast f/c on the night for some fun
Juvenile Turf
Perhaps this is a bit of an ‘A Grade’ line of reasoning but if we all agree that the British 1m juveniles this season are a bit rubbish, then surely we’re looking for bets among the Americans. Snapper Sinclair is probably the one for me despite the draw. The US racing scene went into meltdown when he didn’t make the original field (saved by the defection of Mendelssohn). This horse was sent off a tight 21/10f in a competitive and extremely valuable sales race on only his second start, which must tell you something about what he has been showing the workwatchers. He coasted into that race (featuring good eggs like Arawak) down the outside and settled it with a deadly turn of foot. He’ll need plenty of luck but 20/1 is a bit of a dismissive European price. He’s rightly much much shorter on the US tote.
Distaff
Trappy, although perhaps the angle is to lay Stellar Wind 2 places after a laboured season and some negative reports about her recent work. It’s a very interesting race from a pace perspective. Abel Tasman holds many of these on form but her habit of blowing the start is probably going to cost her at Del Mar – that is in the price though. Paradise Woods lost her form mid-season but came back to some extent last time. She has a 12l “no excuses” win over Abel Tasman in the book. Paradise Woods is the guaranteed pace but will she be able to save enough for the finish? If not, then Elate and possibly Forever Unbridled will be there. Elate is probably the third or fourth best filly in the race on raw ability but her simple handy running style will count for plenty. Forever Unbridled was third last year and has shown flashes of improved for this season but history says it is hard to win the Distaff off only two runs. I’d stab at Paradise Woods if you made me have a win-only bet.
(saved by the defection of Mendelssohn*).
U S Navy Flag*
I like the Breeders Cup. There was a really good preview show on Racing UK last night with Rachel Candelora in her element.
I’ve only just started the mountain of form study.
Juveniles Fillies’ Turf
I know we Euros are inclined to being biased about ‘our’ horses but I really think Happily will take all the beating. The draw is especially important at Del Mar, which is just about the sharpest track in America (saying something there!). It is amazing Happily has achieved all she has so far on soft ground (even a G1 winner on heavy!) given her breeding. Much much more to come on a fast surface I’m sure. In contrast, top US runner Rushing Fall is stuck out wide. The form of her Jessamine win doesn’t look all that hot and it’ll be hard to make up ground here. Similar worries turn me against September – she’s a real grinder who takes plenty of winding up even at a straight mile. I think she’ll struggle on a turning track on rocky ground. For an each-way option at a big price, I quite like Best Performance. She looked like the moral winner when forced six wide and held up off a slow pace against Significant Form, who enjoyed the run of the race last time. Best Performance has the better draw of the pair this time and could well run into a place. Now You’re Talking had me interested for a moment but Paddy Power seem to know the score with the O’Brien clan and it probably tells you something if they’re standing out at top price.
The only times a European filly has won this is when Lasix wasn’t allowed. Considering the dominance of US fillies, I’ll certainly be looking there.
I like your angle on Best Performance, but that was Significant Form’s second start and I felt she never really looked in trouble and should improve even past that. She will probably be my bet considering her profile ties in with Chad Brown’s winners in this, and we know trainers are creatures of habit.
Not sure how much stock people put in this sort of thing, but I thought it worth mentioning nonetheless.
Out of the 8 races ran at Del Mar this evening, two were won from stall 5, one from stall 6, and three from stall 7. Stalls 2 and 9 were the others winners, but the horses who finished second were in stalls 5 and 6 respectively. Seems to be a lot of success coming from the middle of the track.
Just some food for thought.
Jac
Jac
) are Drefong , Gun Runner , and my nap of the entire meeting – Bolt Doro , the proverbial flying machine .
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