Breeders Cup 2012

[The Young Fella]

I just got through with the Marathon.

I can’t have

Fame And Glory

at all. He is completely unproven on the surface and there isn’t much in his pedigree to give you hope. He also hasn’t been too good at coping with races in quick succession lately.

That left me with the home team.

Eldaafer

seems quite vulnerable and probably won a weak renewal. I liked

Grassy

for a moment, until I realised he had never run on dirt either. D’oh! That narrowed things down to

Atigun

and

Worth Repeating

for me. Most of Atigun’s best form ties in with the arguably weak three-year-old division of this year. Worth Repeating, on the other hand, rustled the jimmies of Game On Dude recently. That form seems much stronger, he looks like a sure stayer and he has a resurgent profile to his form.

Worth Repeating is my pick, but I pondered over

Commander

for a while. His Canadian form has taken off this year…but who knows how much that is worth? It won’t take a stunning performance to win this race, so Commander made me think of Awesome Feather.

I disregarded so many horses because of lack of experience on the surface, or the distance. No doubt one of the throwaways will undermine everything by taking the dirt and distance in their stride!

I’m off for an early night now, so will look at the other races properly in the morning.

[ivanjica]

Point of Entry, from the legendary Phipps stable, is a shoe-in for Champion Turf Horse.

Agreed. Great to see the Black and Cherry Red silks back at the top table. The US turf horses often provide some value as the Europeans assume they are no good else they’d be on the dirt.

He did grab my attention in the Man O’War (merely because of the owner) although something was making me thing a horse as average as the (now) 112 rated Treasure Beach was surely worth taking on.

Now the line through Brilliant Speed gives Point Of Entry a significant enough advantage over St Nicholas Abbey and with the Phipps owned grandson of their BC Classic nearly hero Seeking The Gold (wore the 2nd colours’ white cap) guaranteed to love the firm surface, the 100/30 seems extraordinarily generous.

I will back him to win but also include him in a win treble with Wise Dan (Mile, has the form throuhg Cityscape to beat Excelebration and will love the firm going), Awesome Feather, the "darling"-elect of US racing – Zenyatta’s successor – and the unbeaten Juvenile "banker" Shanghai Bobby (the RP have at last inserted his correct colours as opposed to those carried by Gales Cavalier amongst others over the sticks!!!!).

Should pay a few bob, but betting matters little when one considers the place the BC has on youtube compared to our domestic races. Whatever the RFC mob want to believe, real race fans know the series of races started back in 1984 have an enduring imprint on all of our psyches. Come on the Feather!!!!!

[Miss Woodford]

I have read reports that she "took a long time to get used to the place" when visiting the Santa Anita track, though. Can you shed any more light on that, Miss Woodford?

I don’t personally put much value on those sorts of reports. She’s a 2yo, everything is new to her. Now, I’d like to see a decent dirt workout or two, or at least some gallops on the surface.

Santa Anita dirt plays very differently than Santa Anita plastic. It’s not as speed biased now as it was in the pre-failed synthetic experiment days, but European turf form won’t carry over as well.

[The Young Fella]

Thanks for that, Miss Woodford. It was hard to know what a vague negative comment like that would mean.

I have moved onto the Juvenile Fillies Turf now. What a tough race to unravel! I am inclined to take

Sky Lantern

on as I think her price is rather short given what she has achieved. Her Group 1 win in Ireland wasn’t the strongest race for its class. She might well be a main contender, but I think there must be some better value around in the home team.

The Natalma Stakes form of

Spring Venture

seems like the strongest line on offer. Beating Grade 1 winner Spring In The Air looks strong.

Watsdachances

looks closely matched with her, but slightly behind on a line through Broken Spell.

I like a couple of outsiders as well though. From the Jessamine Stakes, I think

Oscar Party

is the one to take away from the four principles. She beat

Moonwalk

easily on a previous meeting and finished powerfully enough to suggest she is the one who will enjoy the likely fast pace the most here. Somehow Oscar Party is 50/1 though! The overall form of the race looks middling at best though, so I don’t think I will invest even at 50s.

And what about

Nancy O

? Obviously her last run looks atrocious, but that was on dirt, so could be ignored. Before that, she flew home to be third behind Spring Venture in the Natalma despite getting blocked or barged about four times in the race. Obviously the winner was hardly breaking sweat at the line, but surely would have had to at least fight if Nancy O wasn’t stopped along the way. 33/1 is a tempting each-way price.

In conclusion, I cannot escape

Spring Venture

and think she is the best of them. I’ll dabble with Nancy O each-way too.

[Grimes]

Clearly you don’t become an American racing expert in a few hours so caution should be the order of the day.

I think Ridasiyna represents the best chance for the Europeans but I was visually impressed by the wins of Lady Of Shamrock. Is she 16/1 on the assumption the European fillies on turf are historically superior or were those victories a case of style over substance? An American view on her chances would be appreciated.

Yes, it’s very inconvenient that the Americans don’t follow the script. Our football team has the same problem quite often with Johnny foreigner. I’m prone to forget – to my cost, of course – that they’re not just there to make up the numbers.

[Miss Woodford]

Is this the thread where I can get angry about Jamie Spencer’s horrid ride on Fame and Glory in the Marathon? Poor thing clearly wasn’t having his day, was backing up by the 7 furlong pole but Spencer was just beating him up, gave at least a dozen whacks of the whip before he finally eased him. What was he thinking?
Both Europeans didn’t take to the dirt, although they are apparently fine.

That, along with Ceiling Kitty’s last place finish in the Juvenile Sprint, makes me doubt the odds of any of the other Euros in the dirt races.

[The Young Fella]

Wow, forums are going mad with angry comments about rides their horses were given in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.

It seemed like everybody had the same idea of diving for the inside, so I don’t think Richard Hughes and co can be criticised too much individually. I am gutted that Nancy O got completely murdered at the top of the stretch again though, she was picking up nicely.

Could it be that the winner of this race wasn’t even the fifth best filly on show?

[stevecaution]

Richard Hughes didn’t have a clue on Sky Lantern. She broke reasonably from a decent draw, was rousted to take second on the rail but was then allowed to drop back and was never going to be a factor thereafter. It is not as if we haven’t seen it before, time after time, and it would be reasonable to expect that a champion jockey would have put in a better effort than that. She may not have been good enough anyway, but we will never know now. After all the planning and travel, it has to go down as a pathetic attempt to lift the big money.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Miss Woodford]

Someone please tell those Euro jockeys to get off the rail. Tighter turns, narrower track, this isn’t rocket science folks.

[stevecaution]

Someone please tell those Euro jockeys to get off the rail. Tighter turns, narrower track, this isn’t rocket science folks.

Yes, all the usual "we were unlucky" nonsense will be trotted out, when the situation was self made. UK bookies must be laughing their bosoms off!!

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

Much as I admire Excelebration, I think he is too short tonight and I am backing Dundonnell to hopefully buck the trend of crap rides and lift the pot for the UK. I also hope to see Snow King do the business in the preview sprint for John Gosden at 5.35 but no bet on that one.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[SolarEclipse]

Breeders cup sends me to the cleaners once again.

Not the best for punting as Íve never heard of majority of the runners but heck Its good fun.

[andyod]

May I suggest you go to the Blood Horse and watch R.Moore winning the Turf Juvenile.An exhibition of first class jockeyship.At least twice he challenged for and won the best position before going on to win the race.Inspiring riding.

[The Young Fella]

Having watched Ryan Moore’s ride on George Vancouver back a few times, I have to disagree. There were many similarities between that ride and those given to beaten European runners. Along the inside in midfield, barely ever left the rail. The only difference was that George Vancouver got the perfect splits at the right time.

If the gaps didn’t open, Moore would be another rider being slaughtered for failing to adapt to the track.

[Badactor]

Photos from two glorious days @ Santa Anita:
http://upinclass.blogspot.com/

[Author]

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