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Whats the chances of the meeting going ahead?
Improving, according to the Post website. The same applies to Ascot.
D’ARGENT
Is back on the same mark as when won at Warwick last January.
His run in the Peter Marsh, when 4th, was effectively his seasonal debut. Could do well. How well, I’ll try to work out when I do the book.NADOVER
Hard to get a handle on this one. Most of best form is just short of 3m. Then comes 7th in GN, gets most of the way around in the Velka Pardubicka, 3rd in the Cross-County at Cheltenham, but then disappoints off a favourable mark in a hurdle race.
"He doesn’t really get three miles." 27 Dec 07, trainer.COE
9lbs higher for CD win, in 4th Chase start. A big, horse, he was able to get away with a couple of mistakes. Thanks Shabby, I was able to get 26.
By the way, is entered in a Novice Chase at Southwell on Tuesday, if this is abandoned, and will probably then go for the NH Chase at Cheltenham.CARNIVAL TIME
Won Beginners’ Chase with firsttime application of tt. On a fair mark, and improvement might happen, as that was his first start beyond 3mL’AVENTURE
8lbs [edit: 6 lbs you imbecile] out of handicap, but was distant 3rd in this on 6lbs higher mark last year, ie same situation. 2nd in 2007, off 2lbs worse mark
Running well for new stable this season – second in London National, and close up for a change when fell in Rambling Minster’s race.
We need Ken West Derby to analyse whether she’s on a good day.Probability My decimal price Horse
0.075 13.3 Miko De Beauchene
0.050 20.0 Comply Or Die
0.080 12.5 Opera Mundi
0.090 11.1 Mon Mome
0.060 16.7 Cornish Sett
0.060 16.7 Nenuphar Collonges
0.050 20.0 Rambling Minster
0.045 22.2 Character Building
0.040 25.0 Eric’s Charm
0.080 12.5 Glasker Mill
0.050 20.0 Sherwood’s Folly
0.030 33.3 Beat The Boys
0.050 20.0 D’Argent
0.030 33.3 Nadover
0.090 11.1 Coe
0.075 13.3 Carnival Time
0.045 22.2 L’Aventure
1.000I set L’Aventure’s price so that my book added up to 1 at the first time of asking.
Sorry Ginge, didn’t look at the trainer form.Okay, time now for me to look at Halfway’s book, and for various people to ROTFLTFAO.
I’m new to this as well Halfway. I think this is my 4th book.
I’ve got yours coming to 97.5%, so you’re making allowance for Betfair’s 5% deduction on winnings on the assumption you bet two in the race?
My book looks like it is a little bit too compressed together.
At least we’ve both dissed the favourite and the joint second favourite, Sherwood’s Folly and Character Building.
Also looks like I’ve gone overboard in my support of Mon Mome. I thought the ground at Cheltenham was fairly testing, even though it was officially Good to Soft, so I wasn’t worried about the going for this.
I suppose I could push out Mon Mome and L’Aventure a bit, in order to bring Coe in, but I’m happy enough with it, as my bets are already on anyway.We both seem to like, or at least be wary of, Carnival Time, Betfair’s outsider.
I’ve already done Coe @ 26, Miko De Beauchene @ 22, Mon Mome @ 22 and Rambling Minster @ 26 before I started analysing the race. If I was chasing the value, I ought to be on Glasker Mill, D’Argent
and Carnival Time as well, but enough is enough. Glasker Mill and Carnival Time might not necessarily run either.Good grief! All 17 have stood their ground. I don’t need to change my book because I didn’t take the likeliehood of running into consideration.
All we have to do now is hang around like naughty schoolboys, whilst Ginge marks our homework.
Halfway, I think we’re both wrong about Mon Mome. Mon Mome has okay form on Heavy – form figures of 123, with the 3rd being in this race two years ago.
I am wrong because I have not given consideration to the possibility that 2 races in 15 days bottomed out the horse. If that was the case, is it possible to get him back to his peak this season?Here’s my ratings for the race together with an 80% tissue based on the ratings. On a pure "value" basis, Eric’s Charm is the bet as he is available at 33/1. However I’ll probably just back Glasker Mill because he came out top-rated.
14 … 11.07 … Glasker Mill
13 … 11.92 … Cornish Sett
13 … 11.92 … Erics Charm
13 … 11.92 … Coe
12 … 12.92 … Opera Mundi
10 … 15.50 … Rambling Minster
9 ….. 17.22 … D’Argent
8 ….. 19.38 … Character Building
8 ….. 19.38 … Sherwoods Folly
8 ….. 19.38 … Nadover
6 ….. 25.83 … Miko De Beauchene
6 ….. 25.83 … Carnival Town
2 ….. 77.50 … Comply Or Die
2 ….. 77.50 … Beat The Boys
1 …. 155.00 .. Nenuphar Collonges
0 …. #DIV/0! .. Mon Mome
-1 .. -155.00 … L’AventureI’m not too concerned about the fact that horses at the bottom of the ratings come out with negative figures as I am more concerned with those at the head of affairs.
Hey up, I’ve only just noticed that Tony McCoy has replaced Dougie Costello on Character Building.
Hey up, I’ve only just noticed that Tony McCoy has replaced Dougie Costello on Character Building.
Me too, Noticed on the Betfair market.
Thats a very interesting jockey booking. The last time he was ‘jocked off’ Denis O’Regan rode CB to his Hennesy 3rd behind Denman
I’m not sure about Charachter Building being able to reverse form with Rambling Master who has very seldom ran on this type of ground but ran well on soft behind Cloudy lane. If he runs I would fancy a small EW on him as a saver.
CB has had one too many chances for my liking.
Why on earth Sherwoods Folly is favourite against some better sorts is beyond me. Granted he finished 5th in the Welsh National but he’s fallen been pulled up twice, won a moderate race and been out he 3 in an even poorer race prior to Chepstow. That run could be asign he’s improving but it could also have been just one of those days. I think the latter is far more likely.
The most likely winner to me is Opera Mundi if one or both of the top two in the weighs stays in. He showed signs of coming back to his old self when finishing close up behind Cloudy lane and Glasker Mill. Sam homas has won here before on him which is another plus.
He’s a huge price at 10/1 all things considered I think he will go very close. The price allows for an EW bet which is probabaly the best way to go in this muddling contest.
Hi Aristo
This race apparently is so big and important that the final declarations were made at the 48 hour stage instead of 24 hours! So the topweights are already in.
Totally agree about Sherwood’s Folly. What makes him favourite though is that he is owned by Hemmings (also has Coe and Glasker Mill), and this race has been the target for him all season. That, together with the 5th in the Welsh makes him a short price, but there isn’t too much other form, is there?
Gerald
Not that I’m particularly interested in backing him any more, but I’d point out to the Chracter Building fans that he also wears first-time cheekpieces, something which given his profile is probably more significant than a positive jockey change IMO.
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Coe has the physique to cope with the demands of this race, arrives on the back of a confidence boosting victory and only has 10-6 to shift.
He’ll do for me.
….We need Ken West Derby to analyse whether she’s on a good day.
Thanks for the mention.
Given my ability to back big-priced winners (£5 on Wondersobright at 50/1 prior to returning at 33/1) earlier this week, (it’s hard to be humble guys) I have decided against my initial intuition of L’aventure and opted for Carnival Town. Not that I’ll be backing it, purely as a spectacle (might need them) and as a hopeful entry in Bob’s competition. Still reeling from my earlier success so no serious bets until I come back down to earth. If you have the time and inclination to find the Odds On thread, the latest news is that with a more controlled approach this year I’m precisely £200 up since 1st January which might be small fry to most members but represents a significant departure from anything in living memory for me. Good wishes with whatever you back today.
Ken1:55 Haydock 100% (win only) Book
Micko De Beauchene 5.25% 18/1
Comply Or Die –NR–Opera Mundi 10.5% 17/2
(11/1) 2.2% better
Mon Mome 7.25% 13/1
Cornish Sett 5% 20/1Nenuphar Collonges 12.5% 7/1
(12/1) 4.8%
Rambling Minister 5.25% 18/1
(28/1) 1.8%
Character Building 7% 14/1
Eric’s Charm 2.5% 40/1
Glasker Mill 5% 20/1
Sherwood’s Folly 7.25% 13/1Beat The Boys 5% 20/1
(28/1) 1.3%
D’Argent 3.5% 28/1 (33/1)
Nadover 1% 100/1Coe 18% 9/2
(11/2) (2.6%)
Carnival Town 3.5% 28/1
L’Aventure 1.5% 66/1Value Is EverythingI do like Cornish sett but have worries about the ground for him and that Nenuphar Collonges can’t jump worse than at Chepstow and that Sherwood’s Folly gets 4lb (2lb handicap mark and 2lb lower claim) weight off it which makes them level. But he still rates an ew chance for me and any kind of decent run will make his National prospects look better.
For me Coe doesn’t jump and this is so much tougher than last time and while he’s only young, he will need to improve no end to figure today. Character Building has been a bit of a talking horse who has yet to fulfill high expectations and though he never runs a bad one, a solitary chase win so far tells you all you need to know. That said if this is his National year, maybe its all been a plan to maximise his mark.Micko De Beauchene unseated the last twice, not really his fault. Jumped in to the back of Mon Mome in the Welsh National, then stumbled on landing last time. It is possible that those experiences may effect his jumping in the future. Suited by conditions but stable could be in better form.
Comply Or Die non-runner.
Opera Mundi has got a good record here and when the mud is flying. Not proven at the trip, did not have his ground in the Scottish National and apparently swallowed tongue on reappearance. However, runs over shorter distances as though this trip should suit. Didn’t have the best of runs last time when squeezed at the final fence. Running well although did not look 100% enthusiastic in the early stages. Could be capable of better temperament allowing.
Mon Mome got hampered in the Welsh National, then had Micko run in to the back of him. Lost a lot of ground and momentum. Had looked a descent stayer prior to that, winning a good handicap at Cheltenham (first and second clear of the rest). Bit disappointing over hurdles since but is a better chaser. Stable still in good form. May be a couple a bit less exposed to beat him today and is without his usual rider Coleman.
Cornish Sett was second in the Welsh National and has won this season. But I am still not convinced about his temperament. Does not win very often, sometimes finishing well through beaten horses and as such could be flattered. Had this not been a win only book would be shorter.
Nenuphar Collonges was behind Cornish Sett in the Welsh National but did not jump well that day. Heavy going and a slower pace should not put as much strain on his jumping. Was second favourite that day and probably capable of improvement over extreme distances. Would rather have Choc on board but Hutch is an under rated jock.
Rambling Minster had my money on him last time at Cheltenham. Given a bit to do by his jockey (not one of my favourites) but stayed on strongly. Possibly better handicapped horses in the race but at least he is in form.
Character Building is only 1 lb better off with Rambling Minster for 2 ¾ lengths for his last chase start. Don’t think that is the best thing to judge him on though. Often idles in a finish and does not win the races his ability deserves. Ran over hurdles last time but is a better chaser. Does have cheek pieces today and the benefit of AP, but that has been more than allowed for in the betting.
Eric’s Charm ran well at Sandown with AP on board but that is his course, probably best going right-handed with a soft lead these days. Not sure whether he is at his very best on very soft and can hit the odd fence when taken on.
Glasker Mill finished just in front of Opera Mundi last time. That was at 3m and am less certain about Henrietta’s horse staying the trip especially on very soft ground.
Sherwood’s Folly had a soft lead in the Welsh National and may be taken on by Eric’s Charm today. Did weaken badly in the latter stages and had a hard race.
Beat The Boys is interesting. Made a bad mistake at Chepstow last time when pulled up. Did look a progressive chaser prior to that. Stable has given signs of a return to form, however, some are still running poorly.
D’Argent ran well in Glasker Mill / Opera Mundi’s race last time over an inadequate trip. Is fairly well handicapped at his very best form but is getting on in years now. Does go well in the conditions.
Nadover was 7th in the National but a long way behind the winner. Very inconsistent and possibly best suited to unconventional fences these days. His third in the x-country would give him a chance here if capable of running to that figure.
Coe is not the best of jumpers yet (novice) but hopefully these soft fences will not test that part of his game too much. Idled last time, pricking his ears and could be capable of much better now he is racing over trips that suit him. Runs well on heavy. Now of similar form standard to his hurdle form and is so big should make a far better chaser.
Carnival Town won well under similar conditions at Chepstow last time but it was not a great race. Staying on well over 3 ¼ miles. Whether he will run as well in a more competitive race remains to be seen.
L’Aventure has seemed rejuvenated by his new trainer this term. Suited by extreme distances in the mud but does have a poor win / run ratio. Another with a far better place record than win. Fell last time and that may also effect his temperament this time.
Mark
Value Is Everything
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